OKEY MADUFORO writes on the factors that will determine who wins this weekend’s governorship election in Anambra State
The various political parties have been criss-crossing the wards, local government areas and senatorial districts of Anambra State seeking for votes ahead of this weekend’s governorship election.
There are a total of 16 candidates angling for the government house, Awka, and each had this firm conviction that by November 9 or 10, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will announce their names as the winner of the election. However, a lot of factors always influence the voting pattern in every election in Anambra and those factors have been the template for the politics of the state.
Zoning arrangement
Though this is an unwritten agreement, it has come to stay and in the last four gubernatorial elections in Anambra State most leading political parties had produced candidates taking cognizance of that zoning agreement.
At the moment Anambra South Senatorial District is enjoying its slot at the seat of power and the incumbent, Governor Charles Soludo, from the district, is seeking a second term in office. However, he is not the only candidate from Anambra South as Chief George Moghalu of Labor Party (LP), Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Mr. John Nwosu of African Democratic Congress (ADC) are also from the area.
It is being contended by leaders of Anambra Central Senatorial District that should any of the contestants besides Soludo emerge as governor, he will certainly seek for a second term hence denying the district its turn to produce governor four years after Soludo hence insisting that Soludo should be given a second term. But other candidates from Anambra North and Central contend that zoning is unconstitutional and that there was never a time the people of Anambra collectively agreed on that.
The likes of Paul Chukwuma of the Young Democratic Party (YPP ) and Jeff Nweke of the Action Alliance ( AA), particularly dismissed the zoning arrangement insisting that the governance of Anambra State should not be reduced to a mere representative position. The arguments for and against zoning, notwithstanding, it is being touted that Soludo appears to have a better chance of getting reelected in respect of the arrangement.
Party loyalty
While members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are of the strong conviction that Anambra needs to connect to the centre given the fact that it is the party in power in the country, it is being rumoured that the party might rely on federal might to ensure that its candidate, Ukachukwu emerges victorious in the election.
Conversely, the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in Anambra insists that being a foremost progressive party in the country before APC, both parties are working together as was declared by Soludo during President Bola Tinubu’s visit to the state. It is also a fact that most Anambra electorate are not comfortable with APC being in power in the state and outcomes of past gubernatorial elections have shown that APGA indeed has a firm grip on the state, having been in power for almost 20 years now.
The federal might factor, which has always been the trump card of the APC has never worked. Senator Tony Nwoye was the governorship candidate of the APC in 2017 and it was concluded that then President Muhammadu Buhari’s visit to the state for his campaign flag off would seal the fate of then Governor Willie Obiano of APGA in getting a second term but that did not happen as Obiano won the election.
Similarly, when Senator Andy Uba contested as candidate of the APC, a similar dummy was sold to the Anambra electorate that it was over before the election proper but Uba was defeated by Soludo. It is against these backdrops that some pundits are of the view that this weekend’s election will toe similar paths hence predicting that Soludo will emerge tops. However, some political analysts are of the view that an upset is likely to happen.
LP is going into the election with the Obidient Movement which shook Nigeria’s political landscape in 2023, when former Governor Peter Obi contested as its presidential candidate. LP’s governorship candidate, Chief Moghalu, is not only optimistic that Obi’s political clout will change the narrative, but confident that the electorate will surely vote for him because of Obi. However, it is not only LP that is riding on the crest of Obi.
The ADC is also part of the conversation given that Obi is part of the opposition coalition that has adopted the party as its platform for the 2027 elections. As expected, the scramble for Obi’s endorsement has drawn a battle line between LP and ADC. The Director General of LP and George Moghalu Campaign Council, Okey Chukwuogo, who spoke on the issue, said Obi cannot be in two parties at a time.
He added that those peddling the report are living in delusion. “ADC cannot be laying claim to Peter Obi and you don’t lay claim to someone that is not in your party,” he said. Chukwuogo opined that it is not automatic that Obi will contest the 2027 presidency. According to him, “there is no guarantee that the coalition will use the ADC and there is no guarantee that Obi will run for presidency on the platform of the ADC.”
He added: “In fact, from the look of things Peter Obi will not run for presidency under the ADC. He wants to be president of Nigeria but not through a coalition that is not clear. So, Obi is in Labour Party and we speak with him on daily basis.” Anambra State chairman of the ADC, Comrade Patrick Obiano, on his part, said the confusion over membership can only be cleared by Obi. “Let me say that the question over membership should have been directed to Peter Obi.
However, I know that Peter Obi has severely said that he is part of the coalition and that he is in the ADC because of the coalition “You should also know that the Labour Party is part of the coalition not withstanding that they have internal crisis in that party. At the meeting where this question came up, Obi said that he is in the ADC as a member of the coalition,” Obiano explained.
He, however, argued that despite the support Obi gave to the candidates of his party during the recent by-elections in the state, they all failed. He therefore insisted that Obi’s support for the LP candidate, Moghalu, doesn’t transcend to Moghalu winning the election. “No one can actually undermine the popularity of Mr. Peter Obi but he is not the one that is contesting. If Peter Obi is contesting, it would have been a different thing.
You cannot easily forget that he supported Amamgbo, our candidate in the Anambra South Senatorial District by-election and he failed. “He also supported the woman in Onitsha North state Assembly byelection and she failed. We are looking at the person who is contesting and his pedigree. So, nobody can force the people of Anambra State to vote against their will. So, the support of Peter Obi has minor effects on the chances of the candidates “he said.
Politics of religion/denomination
Apparently, the church has come to be one of the determinant factors in Anambra elections given the fact that the practice of wholesale purchase through the churches, has in the past, played out in favour of eventual winners of those elections. Interestingly, APGA has remained the only beneficiary.
It was this politics of wholesale purchase that gave Obi a second term victory despite the fact they the likes of Senator Chris Ngige of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and Soludo of the then Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) where all Catholics like Obi. It equally played out in favour of Obiano in both his first and second terms elections. The incumbent governor, Soludo, also benefited from it in the last election.
However a lot of claims and counterclaims are already trending over who the church will support and it all boils down to the position of the Catholics church. Apparently, all the frontline candidates with the exception of Ukachukwu of the APC are Catholics, while their running mates are Anglicans. It is being speculated that both the Catholic and Anglican churches have issues with Soludo hence may not back him.
The belief is that the burial law made by the state Assembly is a minus for the governor hence his chances are slim. However, the Chief of Staff to the governor, Chief Ernest Ezeajughi, who dismissed the claim, insisted that Soludo enjoys a very cordial relationship with the churches. Ezeajughi noted that what is expected is the good governance of Anambra State, which Soludo is providing and it is not for a particular Christian denomination or religion.
But true to the nature of Anambra politics, the congregation is waiting for a final Episcopal directive from the bishops on who to vote for even as it is also being argued that most voters may choose to jettison the clerics and make their own choices. However, there are some church leaders, who indeed, have soft spot for Soludo and in the midst of these trajectories, the incumbent also has the capacity to turn the table against his traducers since most of his aides and appointees are knights of both the Catholic and Anglican churches.
Political godfathers factor
Against all the odds and huddles it is a known fact that there are political godfathers, who play key roles in determining who emerges winner of any gubernatorial election in Anambra State. These godfathers do not really belong to political parties or are too attached to their respective religious denominations as they are the benefactors of most of the candidates in the race. They are business magnates, and once they speak, it is done and dusted.
They include billionaire philanthropists such as Prince Arthur Eze and Sir Emeka Offor as well as business moguls like Chief Allen Onyema (CEO of Air Peace), Innocent Chukwuma of Innoson Motors, Sir Dan Chukwudozie .of Dozy Oil and gas Ltd, Ernest Obiejezie of Nest Oil and and ABC Orjiakor (a former chairman of Seplat Energy). Among the five major candidates, it appears that the tide is in favour of Soludo given his relationship with these power brokers when he was the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the past three years he has been the visit of governor of Anambra State.
Recall that during President Tinubu’s visit to Anambra State, Offor openly announced the endorsement of the president for a second term and also urged him to support Soludo for a second term. He added that he would personally lead the governor’s campaign for a second term and same had remained the position of most power brokers in the state.
Even a former governor of the state, Ngige though in the APC but now on sabbatical, has given Soludo the nod and has never been seen at any of rally by the flag bearer of his party – Ukachukwu.
Likelihood of upset
A public affairs commentator, Dan Obi, who believes that there may be an upset in the election, predicated his view on the ground that politics in Anambra State is complicated as it is always about candidates, their godfathers, moneybags, an increasingly transactional electorate, and endless intrigues.
He also opines that zoning in Anambra exists but more as a convenient debate topic. According to him, it is respected by most and disregarded by a hard-headed few. In a piece titled: “Anambra guber: History, upset may repeat,” Obi wrote: The 2025 governorship election has all the attributes of Anambra macabre politics. The only exception is that there is no front runner despite Governor Charles Soludo being the incumbent.
His candidacy is distressed by insecurity, and his alienation from Anambra traditional and religious leaders. “The general Anambra population is not impressed by his All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) credentials and arrogance of power. The markets, transport, commerce and business people in Anambra oppose his excessive taxation, and the ruthlessness and brutality used to enforce internal revenue generation.
His unfulfilled “Dubai/ Taiwan” promises are openly ridiculed. “With recent rains washing out several roads, Soludo constructed, the political opposition now tag his “solution” mantra as “pollution.” Between Soludo and Ndi Anambra, the word love is absent. This may be why Soludo is beatable, despite his alignment with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) government in Abuja.” Obi noted that Soludo, however, retains the incumbency factor given that his party, APGA, has not lost a governorship election in the state since coming to power.
He But insiders say Soludo is vulnerable as his sophistry and mean-spiritedness continue to draw umbrage. Being from Anambra South, he risks the same one-term fate that befell Governor Chiwoke Mbadinuju. But he noted that the opposition in Anambra is also struggling. According to him, the PDP, the longtime main opposition, has all but imploded and regrouping seems impossible. Its governorship candidate, Jude Ezenwafor, seems unknown and faceless. Some suggest he is a standin spoiler.
He also noted that the APC team are old political hands. He opined that the team of Ukachukwu and Senator Uche Ekwunife are already up shit-creek without a paddle. According to Obi, “their albatross is that Anambra hates APC. Both have also engaged Soludo with invectives. Anambra people want leaders, not a maddening crowd. Yet, it must be considered that Abuja APC has their back, so to speak.
If Abuja can redo a “Lucky Edo” then Ukachukwu and Ekwunife may have a chance.” He listed the other possibilities and probabilities as Labour Party (LP), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Young People Progressives Party (YPP) candidates, noting that with these three waxing strong without waning, the race is assuredly open. “Dr. George Moghalu of the LP is an old APC hand now wearing LP gloves. He joined LP when it had stopped being a national brand.
His candidacy which derived from the Julius Aburefaction primary election, makes him vulnerable, even if he wins. LP faithful are also struggling to give him full support likewise the church. “It is still unclear if Moghalu is a sporadic Catholic or Pentecostal. He has reportedly run for offices in both capacities. His connection with APC seems not fully severed, as his son works in the presidency.
Moghalu is, however, a veteran of old-style brickbat politics. Experience, good or bad, tends to count. “APC, it seems, has successfully invested to occupy three outer lanes in the mainly six party Anambra race – APGA-APC, LP-APC and APC-APC. The other non-aligned contenders, the YPP, ADC and PDP are all underdogs. But they possess the ability to do what underdogs do best – overturn the apple cart and upset the incumbent and front-runners.
“The YPP team of Paul Chukwuma and Uzu Okagbue represent youth, gumption, and idealism. But zoning has always thrown up the monkey wrench into the works. Anambra has accepted the unwritten rotational zoning code. In that vein, it’s the turn of the southern senatorial district, not the north or central.
But the YPP spirit of late Senator Ifeanyi Ubah might undergird their energy and fate. “The ADC team of John Nwosu and Ndubisi Nwobu pride themselves as a novelty. They may ride the wave crest of ADC becoming the national coalition party. Nwosu is a new and fresh face. His demeanour is akin to that of Governor Peter Mbah, and they look alike. “His running mate, Nwobu is a political veteran, astute, well-known, and before now, the state chairman of the PDP.
The duo seem committed to running an issue-based campaign and claim to be the “credible alternative.” On balance, there is no contention on Nwosu-Nwobu religious affinities – an ex-Catholic seminarian and a Knight of the Anglican Communion. They have focused on the twin challenge that dogs Anambra – insecurity and over taxation.
They have also consistently characterised Soludo’s governance records, as “failed,” “inconsistent” and “dismal.” “The ADC SHEEEMS mantra touts its first pillar, Security, as easily doable with intrusive AI and high-technology. Interestingly, perhaps in protest, some notable Anambra religious and traditional rulers have openly aligned with the ADC candidates. “So, too, have market women and traders in general.
The challenge is that ADC has never won any governorship election. It also performed poorly in the recent by-elections in Anambra State. “Evidently, Anambra is up for grabs. The opposition might fight hard and scattershot the votes, thus returning Soludo. Then, there could be an upset, in which the YPP or ADC will crest stealthily to victory as protest votes torpedo Soludo and marginalisation reprisals sink APC’s chances.
“Bright as the opportunity seems, if the David Mark led-ADC loses its first governorship election opportunity in Anambra State because it did not rally enough support for its candidates, it might as well kiss its 2027 presidential upset bid goodbye,” Obi wrote. While there is no doubt that APGA remains a party to beat in the election given Soludo’s performance so far and the incumbency factor, which he may enjoy, his opponents believe that issue of insecurity is a major reason why he should be voted out.
