A public policy analyst, Rotimi Matthew, as well as operators in the oil sector, have criticised the Federal Government’s proposed 15 per cent tariff on fuel imports, describing the policy as a poorly conceived plan that will worsen economic hardship and entrench monopoly in the petroleum market.

In a memo justifying the new tariff, the government claimed the move would strengthen national energy security and market stabilisation. However, Matthew dismissed these claims as misleading, arguing that the proposed duty would make fuel scarce and unaffordable for Nigerians.

“The Dangote Petroleum Refinery currently produces far below Nigeria’s 66 million-litre daily demand, yet the government wants to tax the imports that actually keep vehicles running,” he wrote. “Nothing says energy security like eliminating your backup supply before your primary source works.”

He faulted the argument that imported products undercut local refining, saying the government’s position amounted to shielding inefficiency rather than encouraging competition. “Our $20bn refinery can’t compete with imported fuel, so instead of fixing the issues, the government is kneecapping competition,” Matthew noted, adding that other global refineries thrive without protectionist policies.

On affordability, he described the claim that the tariff would lower costs as “the memo’s boldest lie.” According to his analysis, a 15 per cent duty would add N95–N100 per litre, which could rise to N140–N165 after transportation, storage, and marketing costs. “Food prices will soar, transport fares will climb, and small businesses will close. Yet the government calls this affordability,” he said.

Matthew also criticised what he called a “double standard” in the fuel market, alleging that some marketers sell products from the Dangote Refinery at N100–N120 above import parity prices. He noted that while imports are portrayed as harmful, the same refinery allegedly imports blending components for its operations.

He concluded that the tariff plan represents an attempt to “legislate monopoly pricing under the guise of public interest.” True reform, he argued, would open the market to competition and transparency rather than reward inefficiency.

“If this policy passes,” Matthew warned, “it won’t be reform — it will be a heist, and the government will have held the door open.”

On his part, a major marketer stated that the masses would suffer the rise in fuel prices once the government starts implementing the tariff.

“The masses would bear the brunt. Local refiners think it is to protect them, but they don’t understand that they are providing more money to the Federal Government,” the dealer, who spoke to our correspondent in confidence, due to lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.