The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has warned that the escalation of global crude oil prices to about $112 per barrel, alongside the fourth upward review of Dangote Refinery’s gantry price to approximately N1,245/litre, signal intensifying pressure in Nigeria’s downstream market, with pump prices trending toward N1,500/litre.

The LCCI in a press release signed by its Director General, Dr. Chinyere Almona, yesterday explained that this development was rapidly transmitting inflationary shocks across transportation, food, and industrial production.

She said: “LCCI underscores that this persistent fuel affordability challenge is fundamentally a reflection of a structural supply deficit, where Nigeria’s daily petrol demand of over 50–53 million litres continues to outpace effective domestic refining capacity, thereby amplifying price pressures as supply becomes increasingly concentrated. “In this context, government intervention must be anchored on strategic market stabilization rather than price suppression.

Immediate priorities should include targeted, time-bound support for critical sectors such as transportation, agriculture, and SMEs to mitigate inflationary spillovers, while avoiding inefficient blanket subsidies. “More critically, stabilizing the naira through improved FX liquidity and policy coordination is essential, given the strong exchange-rate pass-through into fuel pricing.

The government must also signal policy clarity and consistency to reinforce investor confidence in the deregulated regime. “While higher crude prices typically imply fiscal upside, Nigeria’s benefits remain constrained by production limitations and structural inefficiencies.

The dominant impact is adverse, cost-push inflation intensifies, industrial competitiveness weakens, and household purchasing power declines. “Energy costs, being a major component of production and logistics, will continue to erode business margins and dampen economic expansion, reinforcing broader macroeconomic vulnerabilities.”