• Intrigues as Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, Nwajiuba gear for ADC presidential primary

FELIX NWANERI writes on the impending epic battle for the presidential ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) given the political profile of its chieftains who have so far declared interest to fly the party’s flag in the 2027 general election

As the build-up to next year’s general election gains momentum, following the release of timetable and schedule for the polls by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), all eyes are on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) over how its leadership will ensure emergence of a presidential candidate that will give the incumbent – President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) – a run for his money.

According to the revised timetable and schedule of activities approved by the electoral commission, following the repeal of the Electoral Act, 2022 and the enactment of the Electoral Act, 2026, which introduced adjustments to statutory timelines governing pre-election and electoral activities, the presidential and National Assembly elections will hold on January 16, 2027, while the governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections will hold on February 6, 2027.

Also, in accordance with the approved schedule of activities, conduct of Party Primaries, including resolution of disputes arising from primary elections will commence on April 23 (a month from now) and end on May 20. Presidential and National Assembly campaigns will commence on August 19, while governorship and state Houses of Assembly campaigns will commence on September 9.

Before now, political discussions have centred mostly on the jostle for the presidential tickets of the main opposition parties, particularly the ADC, a coalition of key opposition figures as there is will not be any contest for the presidential ticket of the APC given that the various organs of the ruling party have settled for President Tinubu. To some political analysts, not much is expected of the presidential primaries of the other main opposition parties – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) – given the leadership crisis presently rocking both parties.

The belief in some political quarters is that both parties may not field candidates for the elections given that they are running out of time as the struggle to resolve their respective crisis. These backdrops explain the view that the ADC presidential primary is one to be watched out for given the political profile of chieftains of the party, who have so far declared interest to vie for the ticket. They include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former Governors Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi as well as the immediate past Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba.

Atiku Abubakar

For the former vice president, who was the presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2023 elections, his official registration as a member of the opposition coalition party on November 24, 2025, did not only signaled a major realignment ahead of the general election, but confirmed the belief that he would be taking another shot at the presidency. However, his bid has continued to face opposition in some political quarters, particularly on account of his age and the power sharing arrangement between the North and South.

The former vice president is 79 and would be 80 by 2027, and it is against these backdrops that some stakeholders are of the view that he should step aside and support a younger person after six attempts that have seen him made it to the ballot as a presidential candidate on three occasions – 2007, 2019 and 2023. The merit or otherwise of this argument, Atiku’s camp is confident that he will pick the ADC’s ticket if he vies for it.

However, while the debate on whether Atiku should quit the political stage ahead of the 2027 elections rages, the fact remains that whatever choice he will make is not likely to be informed by the wishes of his critics as it will amount to succumbing to what many have described as cheap political blackmail. Those who hold this view believe that Atiku’s envisaged emergence as ADC’s presidential candidate is a done deal, considering his political network and financial strength.

Others are of the view that adoption of the ADC by leaders of the coalition was solely for Atiku’s 2027 presidential project. These, they say, informs why he has continued to shun entreaties for him to jettison his ambition. These assumptions, perhaps, informed why the former vice-president, in October 2025, dismissed reports that suggested that he intends to step down for another presidential aspirant ahead of the 2027 elections.

Atiku, who spoke with BBC Hausa Service then, was quoted to have expressed willingness to abandon his presidential ambition for a younger, vibrant and acceptable candidate under the ADC. But a statement by his Media Adviser, Paul Ibe, described such claims as a misrepresentation of his position. Ibe explained that a careful review of both the video and the transcript of the interview showed that Atiku never said, suggested or implied that he intends to step down for anyone.

The statement read in part: “After a thorough review of both the video and transcripts of the interview – in the original Hausa and the English translation – it is evident that at no point did the former vice-president expressly state, suggest, or even imply that he intends to step down for anyone. “What Atiku Abubakar clearly and unambiguously said was that young people, as well as other prospective presidential aspirants, are free to enter the contest. He further stressed that if a young candidate were to emerge through a competitive primary, he would readily support such a candidate without any hesitation.”

The clarification by the former vice president is understandable. His bid for Nigeria’s presidency dates back to 1983, when he made an unsuccessful bid after placing third behind Chief MKO Abiola and Alhaji Babagana Kingibe in the presidential primary election of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and perhaps informs why he insists that he will not back down in the race for the ADC ticket.

Peter Obi

A former governor of Anambra State and the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 elections, Obi had during the build-up to the formation of the coalition, maintained that he was not against the idea of the opposition parties coming together to challenge the APC, but will never be part of any alliance solely focused on seizing power without prioritising the welfare of citizens.

Apparently, Obi’s position at that time, informed the belief that he would not be part of the coalition, but politics being a game in which nothing is foreclosed, his decision to team up with the other opposition leaders in ADC has not only buoyed the coalition but unsettled some camps within the fold.

His insistence on contesting the 2027 presidential election is viewed as a threat to Atiku’s ambition and there is no doubt that the outcome of the ADC’s presidential primary would be one of the major factors that will determine how far the coalition can go in the main elections. A pointer to this assumption is the insistence by his camp that it is either the presidential ticket or no deal.

The belief among members of the Obidident Movement – Obi’s main supporters – led by Yunusa Tanko is that some people within the coalition are just aiming to ride on the former LP presidential candidate’s back to get into office like many did in the 2023 elections even when they do not share his vision of “a new Nigeria.”

No doubt, Obi’s support base is huge and populated by youths, who want a break from the old order, the questions are: Can Obi match Atiku in terms of structure and cash in a primary election given recent experiences; would he accept to be running mate if he fails to get the ticket or move to another party? While the former Anambra governor is the only one to answer the questions, those urging Obi to pair Atiku as running mate, are of the view that such arrangement is likely to be backed by most voters in the North.

But Obi, in a push back, reaffirmed his commitment to the zoning arrangement that rotates power between North and South. He also declared his readiness to serve for four years if elected given that the incumbent, Tinubu, who succeeded Buhari (a northerner that spent eight years in power), would have spent four years by 2027. Obi, who reiterated his position in a recent interview, however said that the ADC coalition is faltering because it is yet to settle questions on zoning and the rotation of key offices. He added that the coalition must tidy up loose ends and agree on a shared direction for the country.

Asked whether he would remain committed to the coalition even if he is not chosen as its presidential flag bearer, Obi said he is driven by the desire to see Nigeria progress rather than personal ambition. “I’m not desperate to be president of Nigeria, I’m desperate to see Nigeria work,” he said. Despite Obi’s position, his supporters’ insistence on the ADC presidential ticket is practically based on what they termed his acceptance by the electorate. The 64-year-old former governor’s first attempt at the presidency was in 2023, after pairing with Atiku as running mate in the 2019 elections.

He was among the frontrunners for the PDP presidential ticket before he announced his withdrawal from the contest and resignation from the party as well, few days to the primary election. He later opted for Labour Party and emerged as its candidate. This development, not only turned the party to a movement, but altered the political calculation for the 2023 presidential election. For the first time since 1999, Nigerians witnessed a three-horse presidential contest.

Though Obi was unable to win the election, the massive mobilization by his supporters, mostly youths under the aegis of Obidient Movement and some other Nigerians, who wanted a break from the past, shook the political landscape. The former governor polled 6.1 million votes, winning in 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. His influence also contributed to the appreciable number of legislative seats Labour Party won across the country as well as the governorship position in Abia State.

Rotimi Amaechi

The former governor of Rivers State, who has equally promised to serve only one term if elected in adherence to the power rotation agreement between the North and South, is however of the view that competence, character and credibility over ethnicity, should guide the ADC in its choice of a candidate for the 2027 presidential election.

The former governor of Rivers State, who insisted that the ADC must conduct an open contest, described himself as one of the most qualified contenders in the country. “If you look at all those aspiring, including Tinubu, who is better prepared than I am? My candidacy offers unity because I come from the South, and we are not in conflict with any region,” he said.

A man whose rise to national limelight was quite meteoric, the immediate past Minister of Transportation, also has enviable intimidating political profile as Atiku and Obi. After eight years as speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, Amaechi served as governor of the oilrich state for two terms – 2007 to 2015.

On leaving office as governor, he was appointed by President Buhari as Minister of Transportation after serving as the Director-General of his campaign organisation in the 2015 presidential election. He also served in the same capacity in the 2029 elections and was re-appointed as Minister of Transportation. Amaechi contested the APC presidential primary election for the 2023 elections but lost to Tinubu by 316 votes against 1,271 votes.

Emeka Nwajiuba

Another high-profile politician in the race for the ADC presidential ticket is the immediate past Minister of State for Education and a former two-term member of the House of Representatives, Emeka Nwajiuba. His declaration signals the entry of someone who intends to ride on experience, policy depth and institutional knowledge to power. However, this is not the first time he would be running for the presidency. He was in the race for the 2023 APC ticket alongside Tinubu and others, but pulled out over alleged manipulation of the process.

The former chairman of the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) insist that it will not be business as usual this time as Nigerians are looking at aspirants with proven integrity and requisite educational and work experience. With a message anchored on what he described as “competence-first” approach to leadership, Nwajiuba emphasises that Nigeria’s current challenges require leadership driven by clear policies, effective negotiation skills and a strong grassroots political structure rather than rhetoric.

He believes that his years in the legislative and executive arms of government as well as key national institutions have equipped him with a broad understanding of governance and public finance. The youngest to have so far declared for the ADC presidential ticket, Nwajiuba represented Okigwe South federal constituency in the House of Representatives from 1999 to 2003 and 2019 before his appointment as minister by then President Buhari. He had also contested the governorship position of Imo State on three occasions – 2003, 2007 and 2011.

The zoning debate

While the position of most political stakeholders is that it would be morally wrong for a northerner, whether of ADC or another opposition party’s extraction to succeed Tinubu after North’s eight years in power through Buhari (the immediate past president), there is no doubt that leaders of the coalition are much disposed to allowing aspirants from all parts of the country vie for its presidential ticket.

The present democratic dispensation (Fourth Republic) would be 26 years old by 2027 and the power rotation arrangement, though not constitutional, has seen the South had the presidency for almost 16 years through Olusegun Obasanjo (South-West, 1999-2007) Goodluck Jonathan (South-South, 2010-2015) and Tinubu (2023 to date). However, by 2027, when Tinubu’s first four years term will elapse, it would be 17 years for the South.

For the North, the region has been in power for 10 years through Buhari (2015- 2023) and Umaru Yar’Adua, who succeeded Obasanjo in 2007, but passed on May 5, 2010, barely three years in office. As it stands the South has almost a sixyear advantage over the North but would be seven years by 2027, most Nigerians believe that power shift to the North will negate the rotational agreement. This conviction is despite the clamour by some northern political leaders for their region to return to power in 2027.

Saying it is either this aspirant or nothing is not helpful because getting the ticket alone means nothing. What is important is winning the election and we cannot carry this divisiveness and expect to win

Their quest is based on what they termed “need for the region to be at par with the South.” These northern political leaders have even called for abandonment of the zoning arrangement, not only for the Office of President, but for other political offices. However, most political leaders in the South have consistently maintained that canvassing an end to rotational presidency at this point in Nigeria’s history, would not be in national interest.

According to them, Nigeria’s unity is presently under threat that abolishing zoning might aggravate the issues on ground. While many are of the view that the coalition’s bid to unseat Tinubu will only gain traction if a southerner picks the ADC presidential ticket, and perhaps, completes South’s tenure by serving only four years, there are those who believe that the one-term presidency proposal would not be sellable to the North.

A former spokesperson for the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who spoke on emerging development in the ADC, predicted that the party could face internal crisis and defections after its convention ahead of the 2027 elections. He said the likelihood of Atiku emerging as the party’s presidential candidate may trigger a wave of exits as some interests would feel sidelined.

“ADC will bleed after its convention because almost certainly, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar will get the ticket. When he does, some people will walk out,” he said, noting that the party currently accommodates several highprofile political figures whose ambitions and expectations could collide once the process of selecting a presidential flagbearer begins.

Baba-Ahmed also weighed in on Obi’s, suggesting that his political style may not align with the realities of a fiercely contested party primary. “One of the reasons Peter Obi is saying, ‘Look at me, I’m not here for number two, I’m not here for convention, I’m here to fly the flag,’ is that he has people who were initially whispering politely to him. But now they are telling him, ‘join the queue, you’re not the only one with ambition here.’”

The former presidential adviser, who acknowledged Obi’s strong public engagement and grassroots appeal, described him as highly visible and politically active nationwide. He, however, maintained that the ex-Labour Party candidate needs to adjust his political approach if he hopes to emerge as the presidential candidate in the coalition-backed primary of the ADC. A chieftain of Ohanaeze Ndigbo and founding National Chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Chief Chekwas Okorie, who also believes that Atiku will pick the ADC ticket, however expressed the belief that Obi will contest the presidential election.

His words: “I doubt if Obi will contest the presidential primary election of the ADC or even fly the flag of the party in the main election. I say this because when Senator David Mark became the national chairman of the party, they arrived at a decision that zoning of the presidential ticket is completely out of consideration. They said that the ADC presidential ticket is open to all aspirants irrespective of the section of the country they come from and that whoever wins will fly their flag. They only assured members of the party of a free and fair primary election.

“So, if ADC is not going to consider the South in respect to the conventional zoning arrangement, it is possible that Obi will look for another platform because he has consistently made it clear that he will contest the 2027 presidency but ADC as presently constituted is not conducive for him. He would be easily knocked out at the primary election if the ticket is not zoned to him directly.

Party leadership assures on fairness

No doubt, the presidential ambitions of the key political figures in the ADC is causing deepening divisions among supporters and stakeholders within the party, however the leadership of the party led by a former President of the Senate, David Mark, has repeatedly assured the aspirants of a level-playing ground.

“The ADC has no preferred or favoured presidential aspirant. We are first focused on building a platform that is attractive and acceptable to the majority of Nigerians,” Mark told party stakeholders last year, adding: “We must act now to prevent this great ship called Nigeria from sinking.

If we don’t rise up together, it will go down with all of us.” He urged party members to set aside their differences and work together in unity, insisting that collective progress must take precedence over personal ambition. “We must bond together to build the party before we can start talking about individual ambitions.

I don’t own this party more than any other member. We must show Nigerians that ADC is different – a party ready to run democracy properly in this country.” National Publicity Secretary of the party, Bolaji Abdullahi, who reiterated the stance, while speaking in a recent interactive X Space session, called on supporters of all the presidential aspirants to stop preaching the language of exceptionality ahead of the primaries.

His words: “Let me also say this, those supporting this divisiveness by supporters of any of the aspirants should stop what they are doing because they are clearly working to the advantage of the APC and President Tinubu.

“Saying it is either this aspirant or nothing is not helpful because getting the ticket alone means nothing. What is important is winning the election and we cannot carry this divisiveness and expect to win. We believe that all our aspirants are eminently qualified and vilifying anybody or any region is not helpful and will make it more difficult.