• Fear Of One-party State Heightens As More Opposition Figures Embrace Ruling APC

FELIX NWANERI writes on the gale of defections to the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general election, which members of the opposition have described as a plot by the ruling party to turn Nigeria to a one-party state

There is no doubt that most political defections in Nigeria are informed by personal interest against ideological difference as the case in most advance countries, which informs the belief that politics in Nigeria is a game of interest, masquerading as a contest of principles.

While analysts are of the view that the defection phenomenon has only succeeded in relegating politics of ideas to the background, the question overtime has been: How many of the nation’s political parties can be identified with ideas that economic and political systems are based on.

According to analysts, the manner at which politicians, jump in and out of parties, negates the wisdom behind the provision of section 68(1) (g) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), designed to curb defection at the slightest reason.

The relentless poaching of opposition figures and the weaponisation of state institutions are clear indicators that Nigeria is sliding dangerously into a one-party state

It provides that “A member of the Senate or of the House of Representatives shall vacate his seat in the House of which he is a member if (g) being a person whose election to the House was sponsored by a political party, he becomes a member of another political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected; provided that his membership of the latter political party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.”

While attempts have been made in the past by parties on the receiving end of the defections to get legislators, who dumped the platforms on which they were elected, to vacate their seats, never materialised, the constitution is however silent in the case of governors or a president.

Defection first crept into Nigeria’s political lexicon in 1951, when some members of the National Council for Nigeria and Cameroon (NCNC) were lobbied to cross over to the Action Group (AG) ahead of the inauguration of Western Region House of Assembly. The NCNC had won 42 out of the 80 seats in the region’s legislative house during the 1951 elections, but in one fell swoop, the party lost 20 of the seats to the AG. This development prevented the NCNC from forming the government in the then Western Region. The trend continued in the First Republic (1960- 1966).

Notable defections in that era were that of Chief Ladoke Akintola, who left AG due to personality clash between him and the leader of the party, Chief Obafemi Awolowo. A similar disagreement between Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and one of his lieutenants, Dr. Kingsley Mbadiwe, forced the latter to dump the NCNC to form the Democratic Party of Nigeria Citizens (DPNC). The story was the same in the Second Republic (1979- 1983). The parties that were worst hit then are the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) – an offshoot of AG and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

Some chieftains of the UPN, including Chief Anthony Enahoro, Chief Richard Akinjide, Mazi Sam Ikoku and Chief Akin Omoboriowo, at a time, left the party and joined the then ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Omoboriowo, the then deputy to Governor Michael Ajasin (Ondo State) later became the NPN governorship candidate in 1983. The PRP, on its part, lost Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, who was elected governor of Kano State on its platform in 1979, following his defection to Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP). However, Rimi’s bid for a second term in 1983 failed as the candidate of his former party defeated him.

Fourth Republic’s early experience

While defection could be said to have characterised the country’s political landscape in the first and second republics, it has assumed an alarming rate in the present dispensation (Fourth Republic) that came into be in 1999. Several politicians have criss-crossed more than four or five parties in the last 26 years. Some did so, abandoning the platforms through which they were elected into office even before their tenure elapsed, while others quickly jumped ship immediately they or their respective parties lost elections.

Cases of these defections were in trickles in the early years of the Fourth Republic but rose to a height in 2014 ahead of the 2015 elections. Among top defectors then were former Vice President Atiku Abubaka;, then Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers).

These political bigwigs left the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at that time for the then newlyregistered All Progressives Congress (APC), while Rochas Okorocha (then governor of Imo State) dumped the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) for the APC as well. Others that headlined the 2015 defections are former Governors Segun Oni (Ekiti), Olagunsoye Oyinola (Osun), Isiaka Adeleke (Osun), Achike Udenwa (Imo), Saminu Turaki (Jigawa), Adamu Aliero (Kebi) and Attahiru Bafarawa (Sokoto). Federal and state legislators were also not left out.

They include Senators Bukola Saraki, Ali Modu Sheriff, Ifeanyi Araraume and Chris Anyanwu as well as the then Speaker, House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal. The gale of defections, however, rose to an all-time high after the 2015 polls as most members of the PDP dumped their party for the APC, which won the presidential election. The opposition parties further got depleted ahead of the 2019 elections, following the defection of some of their chieftains to the APC although the party lost its notable members like Atiku, Saraki and Tambuwal to the PDP.

It was a similar experience after the 2019 elections and during the buildup for the 2023 elections. While then Governors David Umahi (Ebonyi) and Ben Ayade (Cross River), elected on the platform of the PDP, respectively defected to the APC in 2020 and 2021, a former governor of Anambra State and the vice-presidential candidate of the PDP in 2019, Peter Obi, left the party in 2022 for Labour Party (LP) to contest the presidential election.

Others who dumped their respective parties ahead of the 2023 elections are a former National Chairman of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Victor Umeh, who joined LP to contest the senatorial election and the then Senate Minority Leader, Enyinnaya Abaribe, who left PDP for APGA and Senator Adamu Aliero, who left APC for PDP.

APC allure ahead of 2027

Akin to politics of post-election years, it is another season of defection as the 2027 general election approaches. The drift, which started in the National Assembly in October 2024, when the first of legislators of the opposition extraction moved to the ruling party, has seen over 80 per cent of senators and House of Representatives members elected on the platforms of the PDP, LP, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) defecting to the APC.

Among federal lawmakers of PDP extraction, who have dumped their party for the APC are Senator Ned Nwoko (Delta North), Adamu Aliero (Kebbi Central), Yahaya Abdullahi (Kebbi North) and Garba Maidoki (Kebbi South).

Others are Hon. Christian Nkwonta(Ukwa East/Ukwa West federal constituency, Abia State), Hon. Suleiman Abubakar Gumi (Gummi/ Bukkuyum federal constituency, Zamfara State) and Erthiatake IboriSuene (Ethiope East/ Ethiope West federal constituency, Delta State). Also on the list are Hom. Jallo Hussain Mohammed (Igabi federal constituency of Kaduna State), Hon. Adamu Tanko (Gurara/Suleja/Tafa federal constituency of Niger State) and Hon. Oluwole Oke (Obokun/ Oriade federal constituency of Osun State).

Labour Party, on its part, has lost Senators Ezenwa Onyewuchi (Imo East), Neda Imasuen (Edo South) and Kelvin Chukwu (Enugu East), among scores of House House of Representatives members to the APC, Senator Kawu Suleiman (Kano South); moved from NNPP to APC. This development has given the ruling party absolute majority in both chambers of the National Assembly, and the defectors, like what obtained in the past, cited intractable divisions and crisis in their respective parties as reason s for their action.

Chieftains of the main opposition party are also not left out of the defection frenzy. Notable among those who have jumped ship are Anyim Pius Anyim, a former President of the Senate and ex-Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) as well as Ifeanyi Okowa, the immediate past governor of Delta State and vice-presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 elections.

Others are the 2023 governorship candidate of the party in Lagos State, Abdulazeez Adediran; immediate past deputy governor of Edo State, Philip Shaibu and a former Edo North senator, Francis Alimikhena. However, PDP’s loss of eight of its governors – seven to the APC and one to Accord Party – has driven defections ahead of the 2027 elections to an alltime high.

Delta State governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, kick-started the move in April, when he collapsed the entire structure of the PDP in the state to the APC. Oborevwori, a former speaker of Delta State House of Assembly, moved to the centre’s ruling party with his predecessor and vice-presidential candidate of PDP in the 2023 election, Ifeanyi Okowa; a former senator that represented Delta South Senatorial District for 16 years, James Manager and other major stakeholders in the state chapter of the PDP.

Also defected alongside Oborevwori were his deputy, Monday Onyeme, members of the state Assembly, commissioners, hundreds of political appointees, local government chairmen, PDP leaders and thousands of supporters. While their defection marked an end to the 26-year-old grip of PDP on the oil-rich state, Senator Manager, who announced the move, said they took the decision after a resolution that Delta State “cannot continue to be in a sinking boat.” The governor of Akwa Ibom State, Umo Eno, followed suit in June, when he officially announced his defection to the APC after a long waiting game.

The governor, who attributed his defection to the PDP crisis, also moved to the ruling party with members of his cabinet. Recall that Eno was the first governor of opposition extraction to publicly endorse President Bola Tnubu for a second term. He had while speaking at the flag-off of the Akwa Ibom section of the Lagos to Calabar Costal Road in April, declared that the people of the state are solidly behind the President and that they will support him to remain in power till 2031.

If multi-party democracy means freedom of association, freedom of information, freedom of organisation and freedom of expression, then Nigeria is a multi-party democracy and is working stronger

It was another loss for the PDP, when Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State defected to the APC in October. His move marked PDP’s loss of its major power base – the South-East geopolitical zone – to the ruling party.

Mbah, who took along his entire cabinet, state lawmakers, council chairmen, councilors and political appointees as well as over 80 per cent of PDP executives in the state, described his decision as a bold but necessary step to align Enugu’s vision of transformation with the national reform agenda of President Tinubu.

He also noted that the South-East, particularly Enugu, had for decades shown unwavering loyalty to the PDP but had not always been fairly represented when it mattered most. “For decades, the South-East, especially Enugu, has stood firmly behind the PDP, showing loyalty that shaped the party’s success.

Yet, despite this history, our voices were too often disregarded when it mattered most. “It has, therefore, become necessary to seek affiliation where our interests as a region are represented in the form of fair partnership.

We are not moving from a place of resentment or fear. We are confident of our future. We have no axe to grind, no personal point to make. But fairness, respect and integrity must guide our choices for that future to be ours,” he said. Other PDP governors, who have so far defected to the APC are Douye Diri of Bayelsa State, who officially joined the APC on November 3 and Siminalyi Fubara of Rivers State, who joined the ruling party on December 9.

Governors Agbu Kefas of Taraba State, on his part, dumped the PDP for the APC on December 14, while the decision of Plateau State governor, Caleb Mutfwang, to join the ruling party was announced on Thursday last week by the National Chairman of the APC, Nentawe Yilwatda, during the party’s 14th National Caucus meeting at the State House Conference Centre in Abuja.

Osun State governor, Ademola Adeleke, who dumped the PDP for Accord Party on December 9, has already emerged the party’s flag bearer for the 2026 gubernatorial election in the state.

Fear of one-party state

While there is no doubt that the APC allure has decimated the opposition parties ahead of the 2027 general election, particularly the PDP and Labour Party, it has raised the fear over Nigeria’s possible slide to a oneparty state. Recall that the immediate past National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, had declared in …………. when he led three PDP senators from Kebbi State to a meeting with President Tinubu at the Aso Rock Villa before their defection that there is nothing wrong in Nigeria being a one-party state if that is the wish of the people.

“We are not saying we are working for a one-party system, but if this is the wish of Nigerians, we cannot quarrel with that,” Ganduje told State House correspondents after the meeting. But former President Goodluck Jonathan, who countered Ganduje, warned against such development, said any attempt to bring about a one-party state through political machinations to soothe only personal aspirations would be detrimental to the country.

His words: “If we must, as a nation, adopt a one-party system, then it must be designed, planned by expert and we must know what we are going in for. But if we arrive at it through the back door by political manipulations, then we are heading for crisis.” The former president, who acknowledged that some nations had successfully practiced one-party system under unique historical and social conditions, further warned that Nigeria’s complex ethnic, religious and political landscape demands a more inclusive and carefully designed political framework.

“Yes, some countries have managed one-party state. Yes, a one-party state may not be evil after all because Julius Nyerere of Tanzania used it to stabilise his country in the early days of independence because he felt that the country, just like Nigeria, had too many tribes and tongues and two principled religions—Christianity and Islam.

“He reasoned then that if they allow multiple parties, some may follow religious lines, others tribal, and unity will be difficult. But it was properly planned; it was not by accident.” Key opposition leader, who recently warned against the dangers of Nigeria’s gradual drift to a oneparty state, accused the Tinubu administration of using state institutions to intimidate political opponents ahead of the 2027 general election.

The opposition leaders – Atiku, Obi, former PDP Deputy National Chairman, Chief Bode George; former APC National Chairman Chief John Odigie-Oyegun; and Mallam Lawal Batagarawa, in a joint statement, said there is a deliberate but covert effort to bring all state governments under the control of the ruling party, not through open electoral contests but through pressure allegedly exerted via anti-graft investigations. Noting that opposition governors and influential political figures are the primary targets of the pressure, they pointed to the recent wave of defections of opposition governors

to the APC as a development that reinforces public suspicion that coercion, rather than political conviction or ideology, is behind the realignments. The opposition leaders expressed concern that Nigeria’s anticorruption and security agencies are increasingly being viewed by the public as instruments of selective justice rather than independent institutions committed to the rule of law.

The statement read in part: “We are compelled by duty to nation and conscience to alert our compatriots and the international community to the unfortunate and gradual slide of our country into a state where key national institutions are increasingly perceived as tools of political intimidation, selective justice and systematic persecution of opposition leaders.

“More than ever before in our democratic experience, Nigerians have witnessed what many now describe as a covert undemocratic agenda to ensure that all state governments fall under the control of the President’s party, not through transparent electoral contests, but by intimidating opposition governors via the anti-corruption apparatus.”

Describing the trend as a serious threat to Nigeria’s democratic future, the opposition leaders averred: “Nigeria belongs to all of us, not to a single party or a single leader. We must make a deliberate choice not to be remembered by posterity for our silence.”

Babangida Aliyu, a former governor of Niger State, who also spoke on the issue recently, said the rate at which members of the opposition parties are defecting to the ruling APC is likely to push Nigeria to a one-party state. Speaking at an interactive session between PDP’s National Working Committee (NWC) and Former Ministers’ Forum, Aliyu expressed deep concern about shrinking political space, induced defections and the weakening of opposition institutions.

The former governor, who emphasised that a vibrant opposition is essential for a thriving democracy, said: “We observe with alarm the aggressive manoeuvres by the ruling APC to obliterate the opposition. The relentless poaching of opposition figures and the weaponisation of state institutions to intimidate dissenting voices are clear indicators that Nigeria is sliding dangerously into a oneparty state.”

The Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (SMBLF), which also expressed deep worry at what it termed a coordinated slide towards one-party domination, fuelled by mass defections, political coercion and ideological inconsistencies across party lines, warned against Nigeria’s “drift into a dangerous territory.” Elder statesman, Buba Galadima, on his part, accused the present political elite of dismantling dissent and tightening authoritarian control over the country’s institutions.

He warned that Nigeria is “on the verge of dictatorship” as the ruling class seeks to absorb every political structure into a single obedient bloc. “A democracy without opposition is dictatorship, pure and simple,” Galadima said, noting the systematic erasure of alternative voices as the most alarming signal of Nigeria’s democratic decay. “Once there is no alternative view, what you have is dictatorship, monarchy or fascism. Call it whatever you like. This is what happened in Germany under Hitler.

He picked his victims one by one, and everyone said, ‘It is not my turn,’ until it consumed them all.” Nigerian born United States based lawyer, human rights activist and public commentator, Vitus Ozoke, who warned the APC on the dangers of suppressing the opposition, said ruling party’s goal of a one-party state through a “Project 36” will backfire, leading to chaos and failure In a piece, he titled “APC’s big cathedral and Nigerian democracy,” Ozoke stated.

“The APC is fast mutating from a political party into a cathedral of conquest. Its altar, once dressed with the promise of “change,” now only administers the incense of power. State after state, governor after governor, defections pour in like worshipers at an open-door revival. “APC has no litmus test. All are welcome – Jews and Gentiles, the good, the bad, and the unrepentant. It’s all politics – no principles, no policies. But behind the chants and chorus of unity, lies the gasping sound of democracy dying an agonizing death – slowly and softly.

It’s a cathedral built on quicksand. APC’s ambition is clear: to turn Nigeria into a one-party state. Every defection is celebrated as a victory for “national alignment,” but what it really symbolizes is the erosion of ideological diversity. There is no genuine conversion happening here – only congregation. “Defectors are attracted to the APC not by conviction but by convenience. They come to Abuja not to serve but to be served. They come not to build their states but to beg for federal allocations.

In a genuine federation, governors focus on building economies in their respective, not making monthly pilgrimages to Abuja. They are meant to generate wealth for their states, not beg for aid. However, under Nigeria’s warped federalism, the path to state development goes through the corridors of Aso Rock.” He decried that Nigerian politics has become a marketplace of prostitution, not postulations; conventions, not convictions, Ozoke however observed that APC’s swelling size has become its biggest weakness.

According to him, when a party consumes everything in its path, it risks choking on its own excess. “APC must be careful what it wishes for. Its goal of a one-party state through a ‘Project 36’ will backfire, leading to chaos and failure. Given that there is no clear and discernible ideological difference between it and the PDP – just two identical doppelgangers – packing the loot room with too many looters is creating a tinder box for a bloodbath,” he warned.

APC allays fear

The National Secretary of the APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, who dismissed claims that Nigeria is drifting towards a one-party state, described such assertions as “odious” and politically motivated as the country’s democratic space remains vibrant and competitive.

Basiru, who spoke in a media interview, maintained that allegations that the ruling party is undermining multiparty democracy are being pushed by what he described as “internally displaced politicians,” argued that the current political landscape itself proves the existence of a functioning multi-party system.

“The truth is that today we have multi-party democracy, even when illustrated by the spread of political parties controlling states in Nigeria. Yes, my party, the APC, has 27 governors. The PDP has five governors, APGA has one, NNPP has one and LP has one. What other illustrations of multi-party democracy do you need?”

The APC scribe rejected the notion that democracy requires the ruling party to deliberately limit its growth. “Multi-party democracy does not mean that the ruling party should allow itself to be weakened, become indolent or complacent, and refuse to mobilise, organise and build itself to a veritable electoral machinery. “If multi-party democracy means that the ruling party should allow itself to be overrun by the opposition, then perhaps they may be right.

But if multi-party democracy means freedom of association, freedom of information, freedom of organisation and freedom of expression, then Nigeria is a multi-party democracy and is working stronger,” he said. On the claim that the anti-corruption agencies are being used to coerce opposition politicians to join the ruling APC, he said: “I must address the erroneous impression, which is rather ridiculous, that the presidency is weaponising the EFCC.

There is no such thing. “As far as the Federal Government is concerned, the EFCC and the ICPC have their own independent roles and responsibilities. If you don’t have a skeleton in your cupboard, nobody should be afraid that anybody will go after you. “Do you have immunity against criminal investigation or prosecution simply because you belong to the opposition? All of us were in this country when our now president was prosecuted before the Code of Conduct Tribunal.

That did not stop him from organising and mobilising the opposition until they won power in 2015.” A chieftain of APC and member representing Ohaji-Egbema/Oguta/ Oru West Federal Constituency at the House of Representatives, Eugene Dibiagwu, who also dismissed claims that Nigeria is drifting towards a one-party state over defections, said the mass movement into the ruling party is simply because politicians desire relevance in the political space. “The country is not drifting into a one-party system. Every politician wants to be relevant at any point in time.

What is happening within the opposition is quite unfortunate,” he said, criticising the opposition parties, particularly the PDP, for what he described as its failure to effectively play the role of an opposition. “If your assertion of a drift towards a one-party system is true, then it is the opposition that is making it so. They have refused to do the work of the opposition. Look at what is happening in PDP; people are looking for a place where they feel secure. Some individuals are ensuring that the right thing is not being done,” he said.

The lawmaker maintained that APC is not coercing anyone to join it. According to him, “people see safety in joining APC. That does not mean Nigeria is tending towards a oneparty system. The opposition should do its work. You don’t blame APC for people defecting. “If someone comes to my house, I won’t shut the door. I’ll welcome the person because there is something he sees in my house.

In APC today, we have peace and those who cannot organise their own houses prefer to come where peace already exists,” he said. Another chieftain of the ruling party, Prince Paul Ikonne, who dismissed the one party-state claim, said the growing narrative by some opposition leaders that the current administration is undermining multiparty democracy does not align with political reality or Nigeria’s democratic history. He noted that the current wave of defections into the APC should not be misconstrued as coercion or a grand conspiracy, but rather understood as the natural outcome of years of strategic political work, foresight and inclusive coalitionbuilding championed by President Tinubu.

The former Executive Secretary/ CEO of the National Agricultural Land Development Authority (NALDA), described the alarm raised by opposition figures as lamentations of politicians who have found themselves outpaced by events and disconnected from the mood of the nation. He stressed that performance, vision and political organisation and not intimidation are what attract people to a party. “When politicians see performance, they naturally align with it. Today, the APC is the platform to beat. So, the sustained defections to the party are driven by performance and results.”