Experts have said that inflation may witness a resurgence in December due to the year-end festivities.
This was disclosed in multiple analysts’ reports issued on Monday.
This projection comes on the heels of the November 2025 inflation figure, which trended downwards for the seventh consecutive month. In November, the headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 per cent relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.22 per cent, which was 0.29 per cent higher than the rate recorded in October 2025 (0.93 per cent). On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.13 per cent, up by 1.5 per cent compared to October 2025 (-0.37 per cent).
The November 2025 inflation figure is below the 15 per cent projection of the Federal Government. The November reading was slightly higher than CardinalStone’s estimate of 14.33 per cent.
In its macroeconomic update on Monday, CardinalStone said the moderation in headline inflation was largely driven by developments in the food basket, which declined to 11.08 per cent year-on-year in November from 13.12 per cent in the preceding month.
The investment firm attributed the slowdown in food inflation to the spillover effects of the harvest season, which improved food supply conditions. Core inflation also softened, printing at 18.04 per cent year-on-year, compared with 18.69 per cent in October, supported by moderating gas prices and a broadly stable foreign exchange environment.
However, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased to 1.22 per cent in November from 0.93 per cent in October. CardinalStone noted that the uptick was expected and linked it to frontloading activities associated with festive-season demand, particularly for food items.
Looking ahead, CardinalStone said, “For the coming period, we see scope for headline print to halt its disinflation temporarily. For context, the new base year of 2024 that was introduced has created a very low base, which we believe would temporarily translate to a marked increase in headline print to 32.07 per cent in December 2025, before normalising from January 2026.”
Similarly, Coronation Asset Management also expected a reversal of the current disinflationary trend in December, projecting a sharp rise in inflation at year-end. The firm attributed the expected increase largely to base-year effects.
On a month-on-month basis, Coronation Asset Management anticipates that the uptick in headline inflation will persist, reflecting sustained festive-season demand pressures.
“For December, we expect a reversal of the current disinflationary trend, with inflation projected to rise sharply at year-end, largely reflecting a statistical base-year effect. On a month-on-month basis, we expect an uptick in headline inflation to persist, reflecting sustained festive-season demand pressures, elevated transport activities associated with holiday travel, and continued cost pass-through from higher logistics and service-sector prices. In addition, food prices are likely to remain under upward pressure as a result of tighter market supplies, insecurity in key producing regions, and increased yuletide consumption,” the report indicated.
