Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa (PAACA) has urged the Federal Government to suspend its proposed 15 per cent import tariff on petrol (PMS) and diesel until domestic refining capacity meets at least 80 per cent of national demand.
Executive Director of PAACA, Ezenwa Nwagwu, who addressed newsmen on Monday in Abuja, described the proposed tariff as a “monopoly protection policy” that threatens Nigeria’s economy and deepens the hardship of citizens.
Nwagwu accused the government of using the guise of protecting local refining capacity to entrench the dominance of a single player in the downstream petroleum sector, rather than protect millions of Nigerians who would suffer the consequences of such a policy.
He said: “It is a policy that threatens Nigeria’s economic stability and worsens the suffering of ordinary citizens. The government justifies this move by claiming it will protect local refining capacity and stabilise the downstream market.
“But in truth, this policy will eliminate competition, increase fuel prices, and concentrate monopoly control in the hands of a single private refinery, the Dangote Refinery. By taxing imported fuel at this critical stage, the government risks creating artificial scarcity, causing inflation, and undermining deregulation, which was meant to open, not close, the market.
“Our call today is straightforward. The Federal Government must suspend or reject the proposed tariff, expose and correct its economic, social, and ethical flaws, and educate the public on the dangers of monopolies in vital sectors like fuel, cement, and food.”
While highlighting that the Dangote Refinery currently meets only about 40 per cent of Nigeria’s total fuel demand, Nwagwu warned that any restriction on imports at the moment would push pump prices higher by between ₦140 and ₦165 per litre, with cascading effects on transportation, food, and essential goods.
“The facts are clear. The Dangote Refinery currently meets only about 40 per cent of national fuel demand. Restricting imports now will not stabilise supply — it will create scarcity.
“Imported petrol today lands at roughly ₦802 per litre, while the locally refined product from Dangote lands at ₦929.72 per litre. Adding a 15 per cent tariff will only make things worse, increasing pump prices by between ₦140 and ₦165 per litre and driving up the cost of transportation, food, and essential goods.
“It is also important to note that the refinery itself imports some of its own blending components. This makes it clear that buying Nigerian goods still depends heavily on foreign inputs, further questioning the logic behind the tariff.
“Beyond the economics lies the question of market structure and fairness. The proposed tariff will institutionalise a state-backed monopoly, placing pricing, supply, and distribution control in the hands of one company. Already, over twenty marketers depend solely on the refinery for products, and many of them are now part of a new cabal of licensed partners with privileged access.”
Nwagwu also accused the government of institutionalising a “state-backed monopoly,” warning that the emerging system of “licensed partners” with privileged access to the refinery’s products was marginalising independent depot owners who have invested billions to keep the sector afloat.
“This system sidelines independent depot owners who have invested billions of naira in infrastructure to ensure fuel availability. Once competition disappears, prices are dictated rather than discovered, leaving Nigerians with no choice and no relief.”
Speaking further, PAACA dismissed the government’s claim that the tariff was “corrective, not revenue-driven,” insisting that its real effect would be to “protect private profit at the expense of public welfare.”
He warned that with citizens already grappling with fuel subsidy removal, currency devaluation, inflation, and job losses, the proposed import tariff would only deepen hardship and risk public unrest.
Citing Nigeria’s history of monopolies in cement, sugar, and flour, Nwagwu warned against repeating past mistakes that entrenched price hikes and eliminated alternatives. “Patriotism cannot be built on exploitation; we cannot allow corporate dominance to be disguised as national pride.”
The PAACA Executive Director called for full disclosure of refinery supply agreements with marketers and the publication of monthly data on refinery output, import volumes, and landed costs by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
In addition, he proposed the creation of a Downstream Competition Framework within the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and an Energy Market Monitoring Unit under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) to prevent monopolistic pricing and monitor anti-competitive practices.
“Our message is simple: protect competition, protect Nigerians. Monopolies breed scarcity and inequality. Efficiency, not sympathy, should define our industrial policies. True energy security comes from choice — the more refineries and suppliers we have, the stronger and safer our nation will be. Above all, the government must always put people over profit. Its loyalty must be to citizens, not corporations.
“If the government truly believes in the Renewed Hope Agenda, then it must listen to the people. Protect competition. Uphold fairness. And most importantly, stop this tariff. Nigerians deserve energy justice, not monopoly power.
“Government exists to protect the welfare and interests of the people. We are not opposed to reform, but every policy must be guided by how it affects citizens. There are no ambiguities around welfare — the people must always come first.”
Also speaking, a veteran civil society leader, Jaye Gaskiya, warned that the proposed tariff could destabilise recent economic gains, worsen inflation, and ignite social discontent among struggling Nigerians.
“We cannot deny that there has been some stabilization, but if we have achieved this at this moment, why disrupt it now? You have to weigh the consequences of how much you think you can save in foreign reserves by imposing tariffs, because it’s not going to stop importation.”
He explained that with domestic refining still unable to meet national demand, importers would continue sourcing dollars at high rates, passing additional costs to consumers.
“They are not charities, they are private businesses, and they will pass those costs on. For at least another year or 18 months, Nigeria will still rely on a mix of imported and locally refined fuel.”
Gaskiya warned that imposing tariffs prematurely would amount to being “penny wise but pound foolish,” arguing that tariffs should only be considered once local refining meets at least 80 per cent of national demand.
“If you do it right now, you are simply going to increase prices, and let’s be clear: Dangote is not going to sell much cheaper if prices shoot up. For a monopoly, this becomes an opportunity to make more profit.”
Gaskiya further warned of potential social unrest if the government fails to heed public concerns, saying, There is also a social cost; people will organise grievances. And when that happens, the government ends up blaming protesters, when in truth it created the conditions for that.”
On his part, Executive Director of the Alliance for Inclusive Development (AIDAfrica), James Ugochukwu, stressed that Nigeria’s inability to meet its own energy demand makes it ill-prepared for rising costs.
“A nation that cannot meet its energy demand will not be able to cope with its high prices. This call is on the federal government to prioritise citizens’ welfare over monopolistic interests and future uncertainties.”
A member of the Board of Trustees of PAACA and leader of Equity Advocates, Ene Ede, emphasised that critics of the policy were not antagonists of the government, but rather advocates for the Nigerian people, saying, “We are not enemies of government, but it’s better we stay on the side of the people, the true owners of the country.”
Ede acknowledged that deregulation has brought both instability and some level of exchange rate stabilisation in recent years, but cautioned that the new tariff could reverse those fragile gains.
