Dr Olisa Agbakoba (SAN) is a former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). In this interview, he speaks on national issues and the forthcoming general election, SUCCESS NWOGU reports

Permutations and behind the scene maneuvering have intensified for 2027 politicking. What do you make of such a development?

We are coming up to a crucial moment in Nigeria’s history. Election fever has started. Even though I think it’s far too heavy, that’s Nigeria for you. The campaign is the name of the day, and I don’t know what will happen by 2027. I think the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is thinking of elections as the tentative date in November.

But we have to ask ourselves a question. Since the era of former President Olusegun Obasanjo till now, why is there no change? That’s the critical question. We see politicians; not a word is ever said by most politicians about Nigeria’s development.

And so we say, when we confront the coming elections, what should voters look for because at the end of the day, I know there are challenges with electoral practice, but it’s up to the voters to show what they can do. What I think all Nigerians of all shapes are looking is good governance and how to make ends meet. Nigerians are one of the simplest people to lead but the problem is the leadership.

So, I had a very careful and microscopic review of exactly what is the problem. And it took me back to the 60s, when I was even very young. I recall what now late Chief MKO Abiola told me, and I think that’s the problem. MKO said; you know I have many wives and the wives have children.

And children can be unruly because they may want different types of food on the same day. They may want rice, they may want soup. So, what I did was I devolved my household into at least four major sections because you always have four major wives. What gives me peace of mind is that I don’t have to centralize cooking.

See, the very simple example is here. I don’t have to centralize cooking. I allow the state governments to do it, while I deal with the central issues of school fees and all that. That is what is wrong with Nigeria. And it’s a big disappointment that a lot of the presidential candidates give mouth to the question of restructure.

What is the solution to the current challenges in the nation as you have released a comprehensive policy framework for constitutional replacement, fiscal federalism and economic transformation with the theme, ‘Devolution is the solution: Foundational reform agenda for Nigeria’s transformation’?

I think devolution is the solution. In my policy framework, I went back to and stopped at the year 1963. I looked at the constitution of 1963, and I found that it is the type of constitution which would allow us to have relative peace. It’s simply impossible to govern Nigeria from Abuja. It’s not possible. That’s why things are not working. And that’s why everybody is a campaigner because the ruling party is the one that is so attractive.

So, when I look at some of these governors, and I’m not interested in whether it is the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or the All Progressives Congress (APC) or any other party, frankly,, I can tell you that no Nigerian is really interested. What Nigerians are interested in is good schools for their children, affordable food and medicare. Anybody who can deliver that would be the person to be voted for. But, you know, there are obstacles.

Why is it that our politicians don’t talk about issues?

I can’t understand it. In the last six months, it’s about decamping from one party to the other. That’s the game. It’s very saddening. What is this thing about jumping from one party to the other? Why are you not concerned with the structural foundation of Nigeria? You have a historic building and you see a crack, your son called and said: Daddy, look at this crack, it’s growing.

And you say, call a bricklayer to patch it and it will reopen. So the cracks are there and keep reopening. I personally don’t like the word restructure because it looks as if it’s breaking up. So, I prefer to use devolution or rebalance.

There is not a single leading presidential hopeful that has championed devolution. And I think if they don’t do that, we will continue to dance around. It is open to question whether President Bola Tinubu’s pivotal issues are good or bad for Nigeria. The pivotal issues are, one, removal of subsidy, which has caused the present problem and then, the floating of the naira.

I hear some of the ministers, I hear the presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, call it economic reform, economic restructure, but they’re not. They’re simply policy corrections. It’s like the bricklayer who patches a building. They don’t deal with the structure of Nigeria. The 774 local governments that we have; not one is viable. So, that’s a problem.

Not one single local government can run on its own. Look at Apapa, the port of Apapa is regulated by the county not by the local government. The local government of Apapa should take the revenue from the port but it is not because port is assigned to the Exclusive List. So, t here’s nothing in the constitution that enables the local governments to run.

And it’s surprising that the very brilliant decision of the President, being able to go to court to empower the local governments, is not really working. Local governments are staved of funds, so they can’t do anything. And I think unless politicians address it, we’ll continue to be in this merry-go-round. Four years will come again, and we’ll talk about the same thing.

The Central Bank Nigeria (CBN) just did their monetary policy adjustments down by 50 basis points but it doesn’t mean anything. I’m sure you will agree that all the statistical reports from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the CBN, the only way to know whether Nigeria’s economic barometer is making progress is to ask the man on the streets.

It’s not to go to Abuja and somebody reads their report or World Bank says that our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew to something percent. How does that mean anything to anybody on the streets, when they’re buying rice and other foodstuff at very high prices?

Can Nigeria realise Tinubu’s one trillion dollar economy?

There is the vision of one trillion dollar economy but I don’t see it happening. It’s not going to happen unless we fundamentally do two things – restructure Nigeria by having a new constitution.

One is absolutely shocked that it has taken 26 years for us to continue to discuss the fundamental document of Nigeria, which is the constitution. We’ve been discussing it and I’m asking myself, when will this discussion end? So, this is where a president needs to be absolutely on top of his game.

Nigeria suffers from extreme overcentralisation creating a capacity trap where the federal government is overburdened and subnational governments are underpowered

The abdication of constitutional amendments or alteration or a new constitution to the National Assembly is conceptually wrong. It is the duty of Nigeria’s president to be on top of it.

And I would like to say, borrowing the words of the late Prof Ben Nwabueze that the constitution of Nigeria is not rocket science. It can be sorted out in six months. Not until that happens would we continue to be in this dilemma.

So, that thing we are hoping to achieve, one trillion dollar economy, will not happen in the context of the current challenges. We will also not have the sort of growth for Nigeria to really grow because when they say 3.4 per cent GDP, they forget there’s population growth.

So, for Nigeria to really start to think about growth, we’re looking at double-digit economic growth of at least 17 per cent per year for 10 years otherwise it will never grow. I’m not sure you are aware of the damage that has been done to people under the age of 30.

If you go to the schools, you will see the sort of damage. Teachers, school equipment, everything is gone. It will take a very long time to remedy the situation.

What is your charge to the leading presidential hopefuls for 2027?

Now that this election fever is coming again, it is time to call attention of the political giants – President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi.

Of course, before the elections, some other giants may emerge. But if they don’t confront the elephant in the room, and there’s only one elephant, economic and political structuring are going to be in place for a long time.

How do you assess the current structure of Nigeria?

Nigeria operates under a fatal illusion— a supposed federation where the Federal Government controls 97 per cent of all revenues while 35 and 36 states cannot pay salaries without federal bailouts. The 774 local governments and 36 states, representing 90 per cent of Nigeria’s governance architecture, exist as mere distribution centres for federal handouts rather than engines of development.

This extreme centralization has trapped over 200 million Nigerians in an unproductive informal economy, constraining GDP growth to three or four per cent when the nation desperately needs 10 to 12 per cent to escape poverty.

Why do you think Nigeria stands now?

Nigeria stands at a crossroads. Twenty five years of constitutional tinkering produced no transformation. Our infrastructure crumbles, our economy stagnates and our citizens suffer.

The 2027 presidential election cannot be another contest for power, it must be referendum on fundamental reform. Due to constitutional requirements, Nigeria’s next presidential and governorship elections may be held in November 2026, following a proposal by the National Assembly to move the polls six months earlier than usual. This accelerated timeline makes the urgency of my views even more critical.

We have less time than anticipated to present, debate and secure commitment to foundational reforms from all presidential candidates. To credible presidential candidates: The time has come to turn Nigeria around. This document presents the foundational reform agenda that must be on the ballot in 2027.

These are not incremental adjustments; they are the structural transformations without which Nigeria cannot progress. It appears Nigeria has foundation crisis, why has the country remained trapped? Nigeria has wasted 25 years debating rudimentary questions of statehood that should have been resolved in six months.

While India restructured its federation in the 1950s and Spain devolved powers in the 1970s-80s, Nigeria remains trapped discussing first-principles issues –what powers should states have? Who controls police? How should resources be shared?

There is the democratic consolidation trap. Nigeria’s governance crisis must be understood within the framework of democratic consolidation. The trajectory from authoritarianism to consolidated democracy follows a predictable pattern –authoritarianism, semi-authoritarianism or semi-democracy, to illiberal democracy and to liberal democracy.

Nigeria has been trapped oscillating between semi-authoritarianism and illiberal democracy. We have formal democratic institutions—constitution, political parties, elections—but these institutions are not in ternalized. They lack ideological foundation and substantive commitment, profoundly affecting their quality and effectiveness.

Elections occur, but power remains concentrated. Parties exist, but without genuine ideological differentiation. A constitution governs, but without federal substance. This explains why 25 years of constitutional tinkering produced no transformation. You cannot achieve liberal democracy by amendments to illiberal institutions built on semi authoritarian foundations.

What is the way forward?

Moving Nigeria toward genuine liberal democracy requires two simultaneous interventions – political restructuring (establishing true federalism and devolution) and economic restructuring (transitioning from rent-seeking to productive participation).

These are not sequential; they must occur together. Political restructuring without economic transformation produces democratic form without substance. Economic reform without political restructuring produces the Tinubu midterm reality – technically correct policies trapped in dysfunctional structures. President Tinubu’s economic reforms— fuel subsidy removal and forex deregulation—were technically correct and necessary.

However, as our recent assessment reveals, these federal-level interventions cannot achieve their intended impact within Nigeria’s fundamentally flawed governance structure.

Economic reforms operate within political systems, and when those systems are 90 per cent dysfunctional, even the best economic policies produce suboptimal results. Nigeria operates under a category error of governance – a unitary federation; where federal structures exist without federal substance.

We have concentrated power at the centre while creating 36 fiscally insolvent states that exist primarily to distribute federal allocations and create patronage networks. This over-centralization creates a capacity trap where the Federal Government is overburdened with responsibilities it cannot effectively manage, while subnational governments are underpowered to handle functions they are best positioned to execute.

What is your assessment of the 1999 Constitution?

The 1999 Constitution is irredeemable. It embodies a military command structure fundamentally incompatible with democratic federalism. You cannot amend your way out of a flawed foundation. What should a new constitution establish? It should establish conceptual foundations.

They include popular sovereignty; federal principle; presumption of state competence unless explicitly federal; subsidiarity doctrine; power at lowest effective level; fiscal autonomy, states as primary tax authorities, not federal dependents’ structural transformation; resource ownership, states own resources; asymmetric federalism, different regions may have different arrangements; true bicameralism, Senate represents regions equally and House represents population.

There are also institutional safeguards; constitutional court separate from Supreme Court to enforce federal balance; independent fiscal commission for revenue allocation; justiciable economic and social rights, enforceable minority protections and redistribution of legislative powers. The Federal Government exercises power over 68 items on the Exclusive List and 30 items on the Concurrent List.

States effectively have no real power. Local governments are administrative afterthoughts with no constitutional legislative competence. The required framework, include massive devolution from federal to state and local government across political and technical domains such that powers remaining federal – currency, defence, treaty ratification, external trade, immigration, citizenship, arms and ammunition, external affairs and diplomatic representation.

Powers shared between the federal and state are police (municipal policing for states, streamlined federal force), interstate commerce and major infrastructure, elections (federal standards, state implementation), corporate and personal taxation, energy and natural resources, banking and financial regulation as well as environmental protection.

Powers devolving to states include intrastate trade and commerce, primary and secondary education, healthcare delivery, solid minerals with federal strategic reserve, prisons and criminal justice, land administration, agricultural development, airports and aviation infrastructure, driver’s licensing and vehicle registration.

The 1999 Constitution is irredeemable. It embodies a military command structure fundamentally incompatible with democratic federalism. You cannot amend your way out of a flawed foundation

Powers devolving to local governments which should constitutionally be guaranteed are in areas as births and death registration, primary education and healthcare, water supply and sanitation, waste management and environmental sanitation, road construction and maintenance within localities, street lighting and public facilities, market regulation and business licensing, community tax collection and tenement rates, voter registration for local elections and management of cemeteries and public spaces.

There should also be fiscal federalism which is the economic foundation. There is current imbalance such that Nigeria’s federal government collects 97% of revenue— the most extreme centralization among all 28 federal nations globally.

What would you want to see as the required reforms?

There should be resource control in such a manner that states own natural resources in their domain, while the Federal Government licenses and regulates. There should also be hydrocarbon transition. That is to create transitional provisions to transfer oil ownership to oil-bearing states over a defined period while increasing derivation percentage.

What is your view on the call for governance credibility to restore public trust?

That is absolutely necessary. To achieve that, there should be administrative restructuring from control to facilitation. The current administrative governance approach, characterized by excessive bureaucratic interference, must transform from control and extraction to facilitation and support.

The required changes include restructuring of federal ministries, Focus on policy formulation and standard-setting, not direct implementation, transform from gatekeepers slowing economic activity to enablers helping businesses, support subnational governments with expertise and resources and reduction of federal operational burden.

There should be regulatory efficiency through implementation of Regulatory Impact Assessment for all new regulations, Sunset clauses; regulations expire unless renewed with fresh justification; One-In-Two-Out Rule: eliminate two regulations for every new one; regulatory sandboxes for emerging sectors (fintech, space tech, green energy) and presumption of freedom – economic activity permitted unless specifically prohibited.

How do you assess the leading presidential hopefuls?

As we approach 2027, several candidates have emerged with varying approaches to Nigeria’s challenges. A preliminary assessment reveals that Atiku Abubakar appears to understand Nigeria’s foundational issues of devolution. He played a pivotal role in the Olusgun Obasanjo administration’s reforms but was cast aside, and that ended the foundational reforms of that era.

His historical understanding of restructuring is evident, but whether he can deliver on these foundational issues going forward—with clear timelines and unwavering commitment— remains to be demonstrated. President Bola Tinubu has engaged in fundamental policy corrections including fuel subsidy removal, forex market harmonization, and tax reforms.

These interventions were technically correct and necessary. However, as this document extensively demonstrates, he has failed to address the economic structures, the issues of federalism and devolution—the very governance structure that limits the impact of his economic policies.

Peter Obi brings fresh perspectives and innovative ideas to Nigeria’s challenges. However, whether he possesses the political architecture, coalition-building capacity, and institutional leverage to implement transformational reforms remains an open question requiring scrutiny. The critical point is that all candidates bring value to the national conversation.

However, Nigerians must understand that they have a voice and must make their assessment based on what matters most – foundational reforms that devolve power and resources. The candidate who demonstrates the clearest commitment to constitutional replacement, genuine devolution, and fiscal federalism deserves the mandate, regardless of party affiliation or ethnic consideration. Nigeria’s challenges are not policy failures, they are system outputs.

President Tinubu’s economic reforms, while technically correct, cannot achieve transformational impact within the current dysfunctional 90 per cent governance structure. The current system reliably produces insecurity, economic stagnation, infrastructure collapse, and institutional decay because politics and economics are inherently local. Wrong diagnosis leads to wrong treatment, producing wrong results.

For too long, Nigeria has diagnosed its problems as economic when they are fundamentally political. We have prescribed economic remedies for governance diseases. The right diagnosis is that Nigeria suffers from extreme over-centralization creating a capacity trap where the federal government is overburdened and subnational governments are underpowered.

What then should be the criteria for voting for the next president in 2027?

The presidential candidate with the best policy outlook on devolution, private sector empowerment, and revenue generation is the leader Nigeria needs. Any candidate unable to articulate clear and time-bound commitments to these foundational reforms should be disqualified from serious consideration. We cannot afford another cycle of centralized economic tinkering while Nigeria’s governance foundation crumbles.

We should appropriate the golden age promise. If these foundational reforms are fully implemented – constitutional replacement, genuine devolution, fiscal federalism, government withdrawal from business, private sector empowerment, and the revenue generation measures outlined – Nigeria will enter a golden age of development.

This is not hyperbole but mathematical certainty. With N500 trillion annual budgets, double-digit GDP growth, functional credit systems, and over 200 million Nigerians unleashed into formal economic participation, we will witness infrastructure transformation rivaling Asia’s miracle economies This golden age is not a distant dream; it can begin within five years of implementing these reforms. The foundations laid by 2030 will produce prosperity lasting generations. The time for debate has passed.

The time for action has arrived. History will judge this generation by one criterion: Did we have the courage to restructure Nigeria when we had the chance, or did we squander the opportunity and leave our children to inherit the whirlwind? The answer must be written in the ballot box of 2027 and inscribed in a new constitution by 2030.