- …says country’s fiscal reforms working
- Global public debt to rise above 100% of GDP
Over the next two years, Nigeria’s general government gross debt, (debt-to-GDP) is projected to steadily decline, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. According to the latest Fiscal Monitor Report released by the Fund yesterday at the ongoing Annual Meetings of the World Bank and IMF, in Washington D.C., Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio will fall from 39.3 per cent in 2024 to 36.4 per cent in 2025, and further to 35 per cent in 2026, reflecting growing fiscal discipline and economic stability.
Besides, the IMF said that Nigeria’s public debt trajectory is expected to stabilise over the medium term, hovering between 41.1 and 41.4 per cent of GDP from 2027 through 2030. These figures, according to the Fund, include overdrafts from the Central Bank of Nigeria and liabilities of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON).
Specifically, IMF’s projection signals a gradual improvement in Nigeria’s debt sustainability outlook, driven by expected fiscal consolidation measures, improved revenue mobilization, and the positive effects of economic growth. A declining debt-to-GDP ratio implies that the country’s debt burden is shrinking relative to the size of its economy, a development that underscores progress in public financial management and reduced dependence on borrowing.
On a net basis, Nigeria’s general government net debt, which offsets CBN deposits and adjusts AMCON liabilities shows a steady improvement from 36.2 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 34.9 per cent in 2026, the Fund added. “The ratio is projected to decline further to 35.2 per cent in 2027, 34.3 per cent in 2028, 34.0 per cent in 2029, and 33.7 per cent in 2030,” stated IMF.
Meanwhile, the IMF estimates that general government expenditure will rise modestly from 12.5 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 12.8 per cent in 2026, underscoring Nigeria’s effort to maintain a balance between fiscal consolidation and the need to strengthen social protection and capital investment.
Responding to a question on Nigerian’s debt sustainability at press briefing on the Fiscal Monitor, Division Chief, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF, Davide Furceri, noted that Nigeria’s fiscal reforms over the past few years had contributed to a more sustainable trajectory. Besides, he said that ongoing reforms in tax administration, the reduction of tax expenditures, and the streamlining of the tax code, have positioned Nigeria to enhance revenue mobilisation without undermining business competitiveness.
According to him, “the structural characteristics in terms of our recommendation for countries, as in Nigeria, and our policies, advice has been both on the on the on the revenue side as well, on the spending side,” he explained. “I think of the revenue side, there is a scope to improve revenue through reform the tax administration, to increase revenue mobility session in a way that doesn’t outgrow, for example, tax reform, and this, actually, Nigeria has done quite a lot in the past years.
