Nigeria’s oil and gas sector is experiencing a renewed wave of investor confidence, with fresh upstream reforms unlocking $18.2bn worth of Field Development Plans for 2025, while crude oil losses have dropped to their lowest levels in over a decade.
The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, an agency of the Federal Government, Gbenga Komolafe, disclosed these milestones on Tuesday at the Africa Oil Week in Accra, Ghana.
In a presentation titled Nigeria’s Competitive Reform Agenda for Unlocking Potentials in Upstream Oil & Gas, Komolafe said the reforms were anchored on President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021, which together provided governance, fiscal clarity, and institutional alignment.
According to Komolafe, the commission approved 28 new FDPs in 2025 alone. These projects will unlock 1.4 billion barrels of oil and 5.4 trillion cubic feet of gas, adding an expected 591,000 barrels of oil per day and 2.1 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day. This output is expected to push Nigeria closer to its target of producing over three million barrels of crude oil per day.
“These FDPs, with $18.2bn in capital expenditure commitments, underscore Nigeria’s transformation into one of the most dynamic and attractive upstream investment frontiers in the world,” Komolafe said.
He highlighted the commission’s achievements since its establishment under the PIA, including the rollout of 24 transformative regulations—19 of which have already been gazetted. A comprehensive Regulatory Action Plan, he added, has dismantled entry barriers, streamlined licensing, and promoted transparency in a sector once plagued by uncertainty.
The NUPRC boss pointed to landmark investment decisions as proof of growing investor confidence. These include the $5bn Final Investment Decision on the Bonga North deep offshore development, the $500m Ubeta Gas Project, and anticipated FIDs on projects such as HI NAG Development, Ima Gas, Owowo Deep Offshore, and Preowei Fields.
President Tinubu has also approved five major acquisition deals worth over $5bn, creating new opportunities for indigenous players to expand their footprint in the industry.
Komolafe said licensing rounds have recorded strong uptake thanks to reforms. The 57 Petroleum Prospecting Licence awards in 2022, the 2022 Mini-Bid Round, and the 2024 Licensing Round all drew exceptional interest, with 27 of 31 blocks offered in 2024 successfully awarded. Adjustments to signature bonus requirements and other measures were introduced to make participation more accessible and competitive.
Rig activity has also surged, climbing from just eight rigs in 2021 to 43 as of September 2025—a clear indicator of renewed investor engagement.
Alongside rising investment, Nigeria has also recorded significant progress in tackling crude oil losses, a long-standing challenge for Africa’s largest oil producer. NUPRC figures show that between January and July 2025, losses dropped by 50.2 per cent to 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day. This represents the lowest level since 2009, when daily losses averaged 8,500 barrels.
The new figures mark a major improvement compared to the 4.1 million barrels lost in 2024, and a sharp decline from the record 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021, when theft and sabotage cost the country an average of 102,900 barrels per day.
Komolafe attributed the decline to tightened regulations, enhanced surveillance, and collaborative security frameworks introduced under the current administration.
According to Komolafe, the combination of reforms, transparency, and strengthened governance has repositioned Nigeria’s upstream sector as a competitive global destination. “These achievements affirm that Nigeria is entering a new era of clarity, competitiveness, and confidence,” he said.
Industry watchers note that if the trajectory continues, Nigeria could simultaneously boost production, attract billions in fresh investments, and consolidate its progress in curbing crude oil theft—a development that would significantly strengthen the country’s fiscal position.
With $18.2bn in FDPs approved and crude losses at historic lows, Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry appears to be regaining momentum, offering renewed hope for economic stability and growth.
