Analysts have said that the N12.64tn trade surplus recorded by Nigeria at the end of the first half of 2025 has provided some relief for the country’s foreign exchange market, even as there were risks.
This followed the release of the second quarter merchandise trade data by the National Bureau of Statistics.
According to the foreign trade statistics from NBS, total exports in H1 2025 reached N43.35tn, up from N36.89tn in H1 2024, reflecting a 17.5 per cent increase. Imports, on the other hand, rose by a slimmer margin of 6.9 per cent, from N28.72tn in H1 2024 to N30.71tn in H1 2025. This contributed to an improved trade balance, which grew 54.6 per cent, from N8.17tn in H1 2024 to N12.64tn in H1 2025.
Experts said that the increasing trade surplus reflected a two-pronged trend: a slowdown in import activity on the back of elevated foreign exchange costs and government reforms that continue to discourage excessive import dependence, and stronger momentum in exports driven by both oil and non-oil receipts.
Afrinvest, in its weekly market report, noted, “Overall, the solid improvement in the trade balance provides some respite for Nigeria’s external sector, which could help ease pressure in the FX market and support external reserves.”
As of Friday, Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $41.69bn.
The asset management firm added that despite the decline in crude oil exports (down 17.8 per cent y/y), it remained Nigeria’s leading export product and a major contributor to FX inflows. Non-oil exports also continued to gain modest traction (up 56.6 per cent y/y to N3.0tn), with agricultural goods (29.0 per cent y/y) and raw materials (114.7 per cent y/y) offsetting some of the shortfall in crude exports.
Cowry Research Flashnote on the trade data published on Monday said that despite the positive trend, Nigeria still remains vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on crude oil, as oil receipts actually weakened despite rising global prices.
“We think Nigeria’s trade story will continue to be shaped by a mix of global commodity swings and domestic FX policy. From the report, Nigeria’s foreign trade performance in the first half of 2025 reflects both the benefits of resilient export receipts and the moderating effect of policy-induced import compression. The sustained trade surplus strengthens the external sector and provides support for foreign exchange liquidity at a time of heightened pressure on reserves. We note that oil receipts weakened 11.30 per cent year on year to N24.92 tn in H1 2025, despite the rise in the average Bonny Light prices to $77.52 per barrel, while non-oil exports such as cocoa and sesame seeds benefited from stronger global demand.
“Yet, the heavy reliance on crude oil and mineral exports continues to underscore structural vulnerabilities, highlighting the urgent need to deepen non-oil export diversification to build a more resilient trade base in the face of global volatility. On the other hand, imports have stayed muted, weighed down by elevated FX costs in the first half of the year.
“That said, recent signs of FX market stability with reduced volatility and more predictable rate pricing suggest that import activity could stage a gradual rebound in the quarters ahead. Consequently, while the current trade surplus offers a welcome buffer for external stability, Nigeria’s heavy dependence on oil leaves the outlook vulnerable to price shocks, and prolonged import weakness could squeeze manufacturers. The real test will be how policymakers and investors translate today’s surpluses into lasting diversification and a stronger manufacturing base,” the report asserted.
Meanwhile, the latest report indicated that exports to Africa were valued at N2.97tn, or 13.04 per cent, with ECOWAS countries taking a substantial share of N1.93tn, or 64.99 per cent, of intra-African trade.
