FELIX NWANERI writes on the zoning debate, which seems to have rekindled Nigeria’s geopolitical politics of North/South divide and likely to trigger ethnic tension ahead of the 2027 presidential election

There is no doubt that arguments for and against rotation of the presidency between the North and South have always dominated build-ups to previous general elections since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civil rule.

This, perhaps, explains why ethnic affiliations and religious leaning rather than capacity have been the unofficial criteria for selecting candidates for presidential elections by the various political parties.

Although not constitutional, the idea behind the zoning principle or rotational presidency is that in a multiplural, diverse country like Nigeria, with over 300 ethnic nationalities, it is important that every group is given a sense of belonging in order to promote national unity and to prevent domination.

However, like in the past, zoning has become one of the most contentious issues in Nigeria at the moment, and the politics around it, is heating up the polity ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with implications for the stability of the country.

The tension that is brewing is over the ethnic card being played by some members of the political class and the possibility of 2027 presidential election putting a wedge between the country’s geopolitical divide – North and South – is not in doubt.

The present democratic dispensation (Fourth Republic) is 26 years and would be 28 by 2027, when the next general election would hold, but so far, the North has occupied the presidency for 11 years – Muhammadu Buhari (eight years, 2015-2023) and Umaru Yar’Adua (three years, 2007- 2010).

The South, on its part, has been in power for 15 years through Olusegun Obasanjo (eight years, 1999-2007), Goodluck Jonathan (five years, 2010- 2015) and Bola Tinubu (two years). However, the region would have spent 17 years by the time the incumbent serves out his first term in 2027.

Though the South presently has a four-year advantage over the North, which would be six years by 2027, most Nigerians believe that power should remain in southern Nigeria given that North enjoyed eight straight years under Buhari’s presidency.

According these southern leaders, sustenance of rotational presidency at this point in history is in the interest of the country as Nigeria’s unity is presently under threat. However, some northern political leaders are clamouring for power to return to their region in 2027 on the basis of what they termed “need for the North to be at par with the South.”

APC NWC has endorsed President Tinubu as the next presidential candidate of the party… But that does not mean that the door is closed

Others are even calling for abandonment of the zoning arrangement. It is against these backdrops that many are of the view that while the zoning principle has helped to ensure a sense of balance, rotation and inclusion, to jettison it for purposes of expediency would be counterproductive and costly as result whichever position the leading parties finally settle on the zoning issue will determine their fortune in the 2027 presidential contest.

APC settles for South despite ‘throwing ticket open’

Whereas National Organising Secretary of the party, Suleiman Argungu, who spoke with journalists, last week, said the APC is a democratic party hence it will give other members opportunity to express themselves, there is no doubt that the ruling APC has zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to the South given endorsement of President Tinubu for second by the various caucuses of the party. Argungu had said: “The aspiration of the people would be the wish of the party.

As leaders of the party today, the NWC has endorsed President Tinubu as the next presidential candidate of the party. By extension, other organs have done similar things. Governments in most of the states, zones in most of the six political zones, have also adopted the same.

“But that does not mean that the door is closed. When time comes, like we did always, we’ll make our timetable known, so that anybody who wants to aspire to be the next president of this country under the platform of the APC, will not be denied that opportunity. We have never said that we have closed the door.

We are only telling people that we appreciate what Mr President is doing to the good people of this country.” No doubt, any APC member is entitled by law and the party’s constitution to seek for the presidential ticket even when Tinubu as a sitting president will always enjoy the right of first refusal, but if the gale of endorsements for his second term is anything to by, the ruling party has already zoned its ticket to the South.

This development dates back to April 2024, by the President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, when he led members of the National Assembly to pay the President Sallah homage at his residence in Lagos during the Eid el Kabir celebration. At the gathering were 27 governors from across party divides, former governors and the leadership of the Senate and House of Representatives, and Akpabio declared: “As you coast home to victory for a second term, may all the governors seated here also coast home to a second term victory in their states.”

A subsequent declaration by the immediate past National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, that there will be no vacancy in Aso Rock, further gave credence to the belief that the President’s re-election bid had been launched. Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, who re-echoed the “no-vacancy” position, particularly advised politicians of Northern extraction, to wait till 2031 for another presidential bid. Although he acknowledged that individuals have the right to aspire for positions, he predicated his stand on the power shift arrangement between the North and South.

His words: “People have a right to form alliances but my candid advice to my people in the North is this: As you form your alliances, it is okay and fine but make sure your candidates are also from the South because that is one thing that will guarantee our territorial integrity and unity… I appealed with my brothers in the North to wait till 2031 to run for presidential election.”

The zoning arrangement in the guise of endorsement later became a sort of party policy, when governors of APC extraction under the aegis of Progressive Governors Forum (PGF), declared Tinubu as the sole candidate of the ruling party for the 2027 presidential election.

Hope Uzodimma, the governor of Imo State and chairman of the forum, who announced the decision at the APC summit in Abuja on May 22, said the governors were united in their support for Tinubu’s re-election bid. His words: “That for Nigeria to get to her destination faster in prosperity, that the president should be used and adopted as our flag bearer for 2027 presidential election, for a second term in office.

That the governors produced by our APC are hereby charged to take responsibility to market our Federal Government policies, occupy the political space in their domains, and take responsibility for winning all elections in their states come 2027. “It is therefore my humble pleasure, with total humility, to Almighty God to move that this August assembly adopt and concur the position of progressive governors that Mr President carries our flag 2027 and governors take responsibility for delivering this mandate. I so move as a motion.”

Kaduna State governor, Uba Sani, who seconded the motion, said: “I rise to second the motion as ably moved by the chairman of Progressives Governors Forum, the governor of Imo State, Hope Uzodimma, that this August gathering pass a vote of confidence on our able and amiable president, President Tinubu, as a sole candidate of APC come 2027 general election.”

Members of the National Assembly election on the platform of the APC, who also announced endorsement of President Tinubu as the sole candidate for the 2027 presidential election at the party’s national summit, said their position was based on his political sagacity.

According to Akpabio, who moved the motion in that regard, and which was seconded by the Speaker, House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, Tinubu has been able to set Nigeria on the path of growth as confirmed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Zonal caucuses of the party later joined the fray, citing need for consolidation of achievements of the Tinubu’s administration and sustenance of rotational presidency between the North and South, which according to further stabilize the polity.

PDP’s return to zoning stokes controversy

The PDP, which usually experience internal strife over battle for the party’s ticket for the presidency, each election year, has equally zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to the South.

This decision, a departure from 2023, when the ticket was thrown open, was arrived at the 102nd National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting.

Also agreed at the meeting was retaining of the existing National Working Committee (NWC) zoning formula for the November elective convention of the party, billed for Ibadan, the Oyo State capital and confirmation of its acting National Chairman, Amb. Umar Damagum, as substantive national chairman.

The party had earlier expanded the scope of assignment of its National Convention Zoning Committee (NCZC) to include zoning of the 2027 presidential ticket.

The committee headed by Bayelsa State governor, Douye Diri, was originally mandated to zone national offices of the party but zoning of the presidential ticket was latter added to its assignment. PDP National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, who read the communiqué at the end of the meeting, said NEC approved the report of the NCZC.

The communique read in part, “NEC received and after extensive deliberation approved the report of the National Convention Zoning Committee which recommended that all PDP national office positions currently in the Northern Region of the country remain in the Northern Region.

“That all PDP National Office positions currently in the Southern Region of the country remain in the southern region. That having retained the position of the national chairman in the northern region of the country, the presidential ticket of the party for the 2027 general election is hereby zoned to the southern region.”

While the argument in most political quarters is that it would be morally wrong for another northerner to emerge as PDP presidential candidate in 2027 after former Vice President Atiku Abubakar flew the party’s flag in 2019 and 2023 elections, New Telegraph learnt that the party opted for zoning to avoid discontent among members as witnessed in three previous elections.

While many still believe that internal wrangling over zoning cost PDP the 2015 and 2019 presidency, but the party had what could be described as its worst battle over zoning during the build-up to the 2023 elections, which explained why the May 28, 2022, presidential primary election of the party was characterised by high level politicking that pitted the aspirants against each other.

The contest was however won by a former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, who polled 371 votes to defeat his major challenger and the then governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, who garnered 237 votes. Though most of the aspirants pledged to rally behind Atiku and work for the success of the party at the presidential election, there was no doubt that the PDP further suffered polarization thereafter.

Matters got to a height over Atiku’s choice of then governor of Delta State, Ifeanyi Okowa, as running mate. Many had thought that Wike’s performance at the presidential primary would earn him the party’s vice-presidential ticket but that was not to be. It was reported that 14 members of the 17-man panel set-up by the party to advise its leadership and Atiku on the choice of vice-presidential candidate recommended Wike but Atiku in his wisdom, opted for Okowa, an action that infuriated members of Wike’s camp.

The aftermath was that five of the party’s governors known as G5 – Wike, Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Samuel Ortom (Benue) – withdrew support for Atiku. The consequence of their action was that the party went into the 2023 elections a divided house, and there is no disputing the fact that this contributed to PDP’s loss in the presidential poll. The pre-election crisis continued to fester and got to a level that many started wondering whether PDP will not go into extinction before the next elections.

However, what seemed a glimmer of hope for the main opposition party emerged, when some of its founding fathers called for adoption of a strategy that will produce a presidential candidate from the southern part of the country in 2027. Erstwhile National Secretary of the party, Prof. Jerry Gana, who championed the move, noted that such will not only ensure victory for the party at the polls, but will promote justice, fairness and equity.

“From our renewed foundation, we should conduct a fair process to produce our presidential candidate for the 2027 presidential election. We should present to Nigerians not just a candidate, but a visionary leader – a tested and trusted patriot, a proven solution-provider, with a huge capacity and character to rescue Nigeria,” he said. The former PDP scribe also appealed to leaders of the party to convene a national convention to elect a fresh set of party officers, for the next four years.

He added that the party must also ensure a transparent and credible national convention that would set a gold standard for internal party democracy. Although the call by the PDP founding fathers that the party’s 2027 presidential ticket be zone to the South was initially termed advisory, it is not yet Uhuru for the party despite its ratification by the NEC, last week.

Having retained the position of the national chairman in the northern region of the country, the presidential ticket of the PDP for the 2027 general election is hereby zoned to the southern region

There are members who believe that the party’s fortune in the forthcoming presidential election will not be determined by regional calculations or ethnic alliances.

A former Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the party, Dr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, who had earlier expressed the belief that PDP is poised for a national comeback despite past challenges, internal divisions and defections, not only criticised the party’s decision, but warned that it threatens party unity and Nigeria’s wider political balance.

The businessman, who has already declared interest in the party’s 2027 presidential ticket, described the move as a big error and unprecedented in the PDP’s history. He argued that while the party has always debated internally and allowed caucuses to influence delegates, it had never previously barred aspirants from any region of the country.

His words: “The PDP has never zone presidency before. In 1999, General Olusegun Obasanjo contested against Alhaji Abubakar Rimi from Northern Nigeria and some other aspirants like Dr. Alex Ekwueme. In 2003, Obasanjo as a sitting president in the villa had to contest again with Chief Barnabas Gemade from Benue State and Alhaji Rimi from Kano.

The party never shut the door against any zone. “There would always be agitation that the candidate should come from one section of the country or the other but the caucus leaders will use their control over the delegates to influence their preference. The party has never done what was done by the National Executive Committee (NEC) and I say it’s really unprecedented.”

He warned that the zoning decision could face a legal challenge as it may conflict with Nigeria’s constitution, saying: “The constitution does not allow you to discriminate against party members in an elective contest because of where they come from. Even if I am not running, any member of the PDP can go to court to say he was excluded, and the court could nullify the party’s candidate.”

Although he acknowledging that the decision was reached democratically through the NEC, he insisted that it remained a mistake that could and should be corrected. “NEC is composed of elected members, but human beings can make errors. This is one of those times. The party can still revisit it,” he said. Olawepo-Hashim drew parallels with past crises that weakened the PDP.

He recalled former President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision in 2014 to declare himself the sole candidate for re-election. According to him, this move led to defections and contributed to the party’s loss of power in 2015. “The first disaster was in 2014 when Jonathan said he would be the only candidate. Members from other zones felt excluded and walked out. That was the beginning of the PDP’s decline,” he said.

He dismissed arguments that zoning the ticket was a way of correcting mistakes made in the 2023 election, when a group of governors known as the G5 rebelled against the PDP candidate, insisting that the PDP had always maintained a tradition of inclusivity, even during moments of fierce internal contestation. On what zoning of the presidential ticket portends for the PDP ahead of 2027, Olawepo-Hashim said the party has not played into the hands of the ruling APC but strengthened President Tinubu’s prospects for re-election.

He added that the party has indirectly asked it members from the North to look elsewhere. “This decision is effectively a default campaign for the return of President Tinubu.

Those pushing zoning are the same people who, in 2023, claimed to be PDP members but worked for Tinubu. By excluding the North, the PDP will not have a viable candidate in 2027.” A former PDP presidential aspirant, Dele Momodu, who also faulted the party’s NEC over its decision to zone the 2027 presidential ticket to South, described it as “the most reckless decision in the history of our nascent democracy.”

In a statement posted on his Instagram handle, Momodu accused the party of “shooting itself in the leg” by bowing to what he called “cheap and puerile blackmail” from opposition figures secretly working for the ruling APC. He wrote: “Yesterday, one of Africa’s biggest, but seriously embattled, political parties shot itself in the leg by choosing to hide behind one finger.

The PDP finally succumbed to the cheap and puerile blackmail of the black sheep in the opposition party who are openly and daringly working for the ruling party. “The shame of it was seeing the so-called seasoned politicians engage in self-adulation for taking the most reckless decision in the history of our nascent democracy, by zoning the 2027 presidential candidacy to Southern Nigeria.”

Momodu, who contested the PDP’s presidential primary election for the 2023 polls, directly linked the zoning move to former Rivers State governor, Wike, and President Tinubu, saying: “Who did not know that ultimately the hand was that of Wike while the voice was that of Tinubu. “Their gameplan is not hidden. Wike keeps belching orders at helpless governors who are too jittery to stand firm against daredevil dictatorship. They could not even rescue one of their prominent members in Rivers State, Sim Fubara, when his boat of governance capsized.

“The same man that threw out zoning in 2022, and even lobbied to be vice president of a northern candidate, is the one now crying loudest that power must be ceded to the South in 2027.” He maintained that the PDP has effectively surrendered its structures to Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027. “The geniuses should be courageous enough to admit that Tinubu will be the joint candidate of APC and PDP in 2027.

There’s nothing to be ashamed of. Give it to Wike, love him or loathe him, you will always know where he stands, no matter how preposterous and ludicrous. “No Jupiter will stop Wike from using PDP structures for Tinubu. That’s already a done deal. Let PDP stop deceiving Nigerians that it will field a southern candidate against Tinubu.

Speculations about the possible candidacy of Goodluck Jonathan, Peter Obi and Seyi Makinde are blatant lies from the pit of hell.” No doubt, the fears raised by Olawepo-Hashim and Momodu are not ones to be taken for granted by discerning political minds, the PDP leadership, in defence of its decision, dismissing claims that zoning of the presidential ticket was aimed at glorifying Wike.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Ologunagba, who gave the clarification while speaking on the state of the PDP, the forthcoming national convention, and dissenting views within the party, stressed that the move was taken to strengthen the party and ensure stability. “No one individual is vindicated. If anything, it is the party that has been vindicated. After the 2023 elections, we reviewed our processes, identified the gaps, and made the necessary adjustments.

That is why Nigerians are now seeing renewed unity and excitement within the PDP,” he said. Bauchi State governor and chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum, Bala Mohammed, who said that he has no complaints over the zoning decision, having been fully involved in the deliberations that led to the outcome, announced that he has put his presidential ambition on hold in the interest of the PDP, unity and progress of Nigeria. “I am very satisfied with the resolution. I was part and parcel of the discussions from the strategic planning to the final decisions. It was an all-inclusive process.

Most importantly, we resolved to maintain the current zoning formula for party offices and to zone the presidential ticket to the South. “This will help bring about greater unity, understanding, and stability within the party. My ambition is not bigger than Nigeria, and certainly not bigger than the party. If I don’t become president, I have held many positions in the past, and I am grateful for that,” he said.

A former Deputy National of the PDP, Chief Olabode George, who also backed the zoning arrangement, described those opposing the NEC resolution as “selfish and manipulative.” George said the decision will strengthen unity, noting that members who left the PDP are beginning to return because fairness and equity had been upheld. “It’s refreshing to see us come together as one indivisible party,” he said.

ADC leaves zoning option open

For the ADC that has main opposition leaders, zoning of the presidential is not on the cards for now and the reasons may not be farfetched. Adoption of a platform was after several back-and-forth movements, including moves that initially linked them with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and application for registration of a new political party – All Democratic Alliance (ADA).

However, following adoption of the ADC by the opposition leaders, the Raph Nwosuled National Working Committee (NWC) voluntarily resigned to make way for the emergence of David Mark (a former Senate president) and Rauf Aregbesola (a former governor of Oyo State) as interim national chairman and interim national secretary, respectively.

Opposition leaders in the coalition include a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) in 2023 elections, Peter Obi; a former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, ex-Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai; former Speaker of the House of Representatives and immediate past governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal and a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal.

Others are former Governors Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Jubrilla Bindow (Adamawa), Emeka Ihedioha (Imo), Oserheimen Osunbor (Edo), Gabriel Suswam (Benue), Idris Wada (Kogi) and Celestine Omehia (Rivers); ex-Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami; ex Minister of Sports, Solomon Dalung; former National Chairman of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Uche Secondus; former Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sadique Baba Abubakar (rtd) and General Tunde Ogbeha (rtd).

While it has been euphoria in the opposition’s camp given the hurdles leaders of the coalition had to scale before arriving at the choice of ADC, analysts are of the opinion that there are still many more impediments they must wade through if their dream of defeating the ruling APC is to materialise. This belief is majorly predicated on ambitions of the coalition’s leaders, which analysts say, is likely to make it difficult for them to close ranks and the power sharing arrangement between the North and South.

To these analysts, the proposed alliance is likely to hit the rocks if its arrowheads are merely looking for a platform to actualise their individual political ambitions. This assumption is predicated on the belief that Atiku, Obi and Amaechi, among others, are bent on contesting the 2027 presidential election, and that none of them is likely to step down for each other.

It is against this backdrop that many are waiting to see how leaders of the coalition will resolve the zoning issue as regards where their presidential candidate will come from. Obi and Amaechi are from the South, which the odds favour to retain the presidency in 2027 but Atiku, who is from the North, has publicly declared that he will contest the forthcoming presidential election and his camp is confident that he will pick the coalition’s ticket. They are of the view that it is only an Atiku ticket can unseat Tinubu.

As far as the ADC is concerned, we are not having that kind of conversation now. We are not having conversations about zoning, where the president will come from and where it will not come from

Momodu, who holds this belief, said: “For anybody to face a Tinubu, that person has to come from the opposite direction. Which means it must be someone who can get the North to coalesce behind him. So, I pray that the coalition will be able to achieve that. I don’t know if they will, but I’m sure they are working on that. “It also must be someone who has a substantial network in the South.

There is no other person I can see who has that kind of network behind him. So, that’s why everybody is talking about Atiku.” Kenneth Okonkwo, the 2023 campaign spokesperson for Peter Obi, who also believes that ADC must present a northern candidate if it intends to defeat Tinubu, declared that any attempt to field a southern candidate will guarantee the President’s re-election.

He warned that the political arithmetic of 2027 favours the incumbent unless the opposition adopts a pragmatic and strategic approach, saying: “My strategy this time around is that I am going to support a northerner in 2027. The person must be qualified. And if he has experience in the presidency, it is an added advantage. When he pairs with someone from the South, that will push him through.”

On Obi’s part, his decision to team up with the other opposition leaders not only buoyed the coalition but unsettled some camps within the fold. His insistence on contesting the 2027 presidential election is viewed as a threat to Atiku’s ambition and there is no doubt that his success or otherwise at the ADC’s presidential primary would be one of the major factors to determine how far the coalition will go in the main election.

An indication to this assumption, is insistence by Obi’s camp that it is either the presidential ticket or no deal. The belief among Obididents, Obi’s main supporters, is that some people within the coalition are only out to ride on the former Anambra governor’s back to power like many did in the 2023 elections even when they do not share in his vision of “a New Nigeria.”

However, those urging Obi to pair with Atiku, are of the view that such arrangement is likely to be supported by most voters in the North. Apparently, countering move, Obi has declared his readiness to serve a single fouryear term if elected. He also reaffirmed his commitment to the zoning arrangement that rotates power between the North and South.

“If you take the arrangement which is, understandably, what you can call an unwritten agreement that power would go South and North, and if that arrangement is to be followed strictly, you would see that anybody, not just me, who happens to come from the South as president in 2027, must be ready to leave on May 28 not 29, 2031,” he said.

While some northern political leaders are yet buy Obi’s promise of one term, founder and pioneer National Chairman of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Chief Chekwas Okorie, told New Telegraph that is the best bet for the opposition coalition.

He said: “The coalition looks like a very portent one that may turn out to be a very formidable challenge to President Tinubu come 2027 beyond the way those around him are reacting to it because I know that those behind the coalition are plotting to divide Southern Nigeria by bringing a candidate, who will do just four years in order to allow the region to complete its eight years in line with the rotation agreement, so that power can go back to the North in 2031.

“The trump card in this calculation is Obi and the belief of the arrowheads of the plot is that he unlike President Goodluck Jonathan, Obi will not renege on any agreement he is likely to enter with the North given his antecedent.” According to Okorie, while Jonathan is said to have reneged on the agreement that he will complete Umar Yar’Adua’s first term, so that the North will replace him in 2011, promoters of the coalition believe that there is no reason to doubt Obi.

Amaechi, who has also declared his 2027 presidential ambition, has equally promised to serve only one term if elected in adherence to the power rotation agreement between the North and South. “For now, the way Nigeria is, you must stick to that unwritten agreement that says eight years for the South and eight years for the North,” he said.

As it stands, it is unclear how ADC will wade through the zoning conundrum, but the party’s spokesperson, Bolaji Abdullahi, who allayed fears over zoning of the party’s presidential said the APC and PDP’s early zoning of their respective tickets shows they don’t care about solving societal problems.

“The general election is still in 2027; it’s still two years away. Why are we so preoccupied and behaving in such a way that Nigerians begin to look at the political elite across the political divides that we don’t care about them? “They are very experienced people, and they know the implications of showing their way too early.

So, it’s either they are playing the predetermined game or batting some people to come around because they’ve been shopping around for who to be the presidential candidate of the party,” he stated. Abdullahi said the ADC has several qualified persons who have shown interest in running for president on its platform and is not insufficient of potential flag bearer.

“When people say that the coalition was put together for a particular candidate running elections, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar came out to say he is going to run for president. If this whole thing was put together for him, why would he need to come out to say he is running for president.

“Don’t forget we still have the likes of Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi and others who are interested in running, and we have reiterated that they have an equal chance,” he said, adding that ADC is not bothered by the decision of the PDP and the APC but focused on consolidating its newly formed union. Abdullahi averred that the coalition has not commenced talks about zoning of the 2027 presidential ticket but will do so when the time is ripe. “As far as the ADC is concerned, we are not having that kind of conversation now.

We are not having conversations about zoning, where the president will come from and where it will not come from. “The coalition moved into the ADC about two months ago, and there is so much work to do in building the party, especially mobilising the people at the grassroots level and putting up structures,” he said.