Nigeria exported crude oil worth $1.88bn to the United States in the first half of 2025, official data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have shown. The figure is a decrease of 17.5 per cent compared with $2.28bn in the same period of 2024, reflecting weakening demand in America’s energy market.
Crude oil still accounted for the bulk of shipments, but its share eased from 72.5 per cent in 2024 to 68.1 per cent in 2025, underlining the gradual erosion of America’s appetite for Nigerian oil. The PUNCH observed that the volumes of imported crude fell marginally to 24.3 million barrels in the first half of 2025, down from 25.4 million barrels in the same period of 2024.
It was also observed that the United States recorded a trade surplus of $576m with Nigeria in the first half of 2025, reversing a deficit of $779m posted in the same period of 2024. This development comes at a time when Nigerian exports to America are facing increasing pressures from tariff hikes introduced under the second administration of President Donald Trump.
However, The PUNCH observed that the total value of trade in goods between the United States and Nigeria reached $6.1bn in the first half of 2025, which marks a modest increase compared with $5.5bn recorded in the same period of 2024. According to the midyear data, total US exports to Nigeria stood at $3.34bn between January and June 2025, up from $2.36bn in the corresponding period of 2024, representing a 41 per cent increase.
On the other hand, US imports from Nigeria declined by 12 per cent from $3.14bn to $2.76bn, reflecting weakening crude oil volumes or values, which dominate Nigeria’s exports to the United States. This shift in the trade balance brought about a dramatic swing in the bilateral trade position of both countries, now tilting in favour of Washington.
The monthly data for June also mirrored this changing dynamic. American exports to Nigeria in June were valued at $919m, while imports were pegged at $639m, resulting in a surplus of $280m. By contrast, the US had posted a trade deficit of $182m with Nigeria in June 2024.
This development is unfolding as Nigeria prepares to face additional tariff burdens imposed by the Trump administration. The latest US tariff directive, which took effect from August 7, 2025, imposes a 15 per cent tariff on Nigerian exports to the American market, slightly higher than the 14 per cent rate enforced in April.
The increases are part of a broader executive trade order signed by President Trump on April 15, 2025, titled “Reciprocal Trade Restoration and Liberation Day,” aimed at recalibrating trade relations with countries the US deems as providing insufficient access or protection for American firms.
The PUNCH earlier reported that Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said the country would remain focused on diversifying its markets and strengthening domestic investment in line with President Bola Tinubu’s economic agenda.
Oduwole said Nigeria would not respond hastily to the tariff but would press ahead with reforms and market expansion. “Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on our eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” she said.
According to the minister, while the US remains a strategic trading partner, the government is strengthening its African Continental Free Trade Area integration strategy and boosting non-oil exports, which rose by 24 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.
“It’s mostly an energy trading relationship, but we are waiting to see what happens with AGOA in September. We are also growing exports to other African countries and expanding partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan and the UAE,” she added.
While acknowledging that the tariff could reshape global trade flows, the minister said Nigeria would seize opportunities for increased South–South trade and diversify its export destinations.
Beyond Nigeria, The PUNCH observed that the overall trade relationship between the US and Africa remained in deficit from the perspective of Washington. Data showed that US imports of goods from the African continent totalled $23.37bn in the first half of 2025, up 24 per cent from $18.86bn recorded in the same period of 2024. US exports to Africa rose by 29 per cent year-on-year, reaching $19.68bn compared to $15.24bn the previous year.
Despite the faster growth in American exports, the wider volume of imports led to a cumulative trade deficit of $3.69bn in favour of African countries, slightly higher than the $3.62bn deficit posted in the same period of 2024.
On a monthly basis, the US saw its trade surplus with Africa turn into a deficit in June 2025. Imports rose to $3.67bn in June from $3.32bn in May, while exports fell to $3.37bn from $3.48bn. Consequently, a surplus of $157m in May became a deficit of $302m in June.
This reversal underlines the volatility of US–Africa trade patterns and the continued demand for African commodities, despite Washington’s protectionist tilt. The latest tariff policy signed by Trump, known formally as Executive Order 14257, sets out a revised framework for African and other non-Western trading partners.
The order places a cap of 30 per cent on new tariffs while establishing a new minimum duty of 10 per cent for countries not part of any formal reciprocal arrangement with the US. This includes Nigeria, South Africa, and several others that had previously benefited from preferential access under frameworks such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
The list of countries affected now stands at 68, plus the European Union, expanded from around 60 in April. Trump’s order also introduced harsher levies on specific sectors such as the automotive and steel industries in selected countries.
Among key African trading partners, Egypt emerged as a major contributor to the positive shift in US trade fortunes. America’s exports to Egypt increased by 63 per cent year-on-year, reaching $4.16bn in the first half of 2025, while imports rose by 15 per cent to $1.43bn.
The result was a $2.73bn trade surplus in Washington’s favour, more than double the $1.31bn surplus recorded in the same period of 2024. Egypt remains in the lowest tariff bracket of 10 per cent, a status that offers it relatively stable access to the US market.
On the other hand, South Africa’s trade deficit with the United States deepened considerably, rising to $6.32bn in the first half of 2025 from $3.38bn in the corresponding period of 2024. US imports from South Africa surged to $9.50bn, while exports to the southern African country reached just $3.18bn. June alone saw American exports drop to $469m from $693m in May, while imports remained elevated at $829m.
South Africa is subject to a 30 per cent tariff on most of its goods and an additional levy on automotive exports, a core component of its trade. Algeria also experienced a narrowing of its deficit with the US. Total US imports from Algeria in H1 2025 stood at $1.12bn, while exports to the North African country were recorded at $552m.
This reduced the trade deficit from $844m in H1 2024 to $571m in the current year. Like South Africa, Algeria faces the 30 per cent tariff ceiling under Trump’s new trade framework. Other African economies, collectively grouped as “Others,” recorded a marginal reversal in their trade balance with the United States.
The group moved from a $77m surplus in the first half of 2024 to a $108m deficit in the same period of 2025. While total US exports to these countries rose by 21 per cent to $8.45bn, imports climbed 23 per cent to $8.56bn.
Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Botswana, Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, and Tunisia were among the countries granted slight tariff relief in the revised framework. For instance, Lesotho, previously subject to a 50 per cent duty, saw its rate cut to 15 per cent, offering some cushion to its embattled textile sector.
The reversal of Nigeria’s trade balance with the US in favour of Washington, reaching a surplus of $576m, is emblematic of the shifting structure of global trade as countries respond to protectionist policies. While the US is clearly reaping gains from its more assertive trade posture, African economies such as Nigeria face renewed challenges in maintaining competitiveness and diversifying their export base.
Reacting, development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, has said that Nigeria should see the current trade situation with the United States as an opportunity to strengthen its economy. Ilias said this created a chance for Nigeria to adapt and explore new trade partners rather than view the situation as entirely negative.
According to him, “I think it’s a good time that this is happening to Nigeria. Trump tariff is not for only Nigeria. The advantage is that if you notice now we are exporting more, which is a good one for us.” He pointed out that Nigeria could build on its position within BRICS and other international alliances to reduce vulnerability and ensure that it could “stand on its own.”
The economist noted that Nigeria had to start from somewhere in reshaping its trade outlook, stressing that building new partnerships was important since other countries hit by tariffs were equally looking for alternative markets.
He said, “We also have to start somewhere and start being on our own. We can trade with other partners and see, because other partners are also looking for partners. The tariff that is affecting us is also affecting India and China and others, too, so it may be a good opportunity.”
Renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, has said that the tariffs should not be seen as a fundamental threat to the Nigerian economy because trade with Washington represents only a small share of the country’s overall commerce.
“Our trade with the US is not that strategic. That way, when anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can really have any fundamental effect on our economy. Because of our exposure to them, our trade with them is very limited,” he said.
Yusuf noted that Nigeria’s exports to the US are dominated by crude oil, with some fertilisers and other commodities, meaning the structure of trade remains narrow. According to him, oil has long been the dominant export, and the non-oil segment remains underdeveloped.
He also stressed that compared with other countries, Nigeria’s tariff exposure is relatively moderate. The economist, however, identified what he described as a bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States: Washington’s visa policy.
He explained that restrictions on visa issuance and duration could undermine the ability of Nigerian businesses and traders to engage fully with their American counterparts. Yusuf stressed that trade goes beyond goods and includes services, as well as the physical interaction needed to close deals.
He said the Nigerian diaspora population in the United States, which is large and economically active, is also affected by the visa restrictions. “Trade also involves physical movement. It involves physical interaction. And that, for me, is even a bigger issue. The visa restrictions are a major issue in terms of our trade and investment relationship,” he added.
Yusuf concluded that while tariffs are attracting attention, the deeper obstacle to Nigeria’s trade and investment ties with the US lies in barriers to mobility. He warned that without improvements in visa policy, Nigeria’s ability to leverage opportunities in the US market would remain constrained, regardless of tariff adjustments.
