Nigeria’s trade ledger with the United States staged a dramatic turnaround in the first half of 2025, swinging from deficit to surplus on the back of surging American exports and moderating Nigerian shipments.
Fresh data from the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis show that Washington posted a $576 million surplus with Africa’s biggest economy between January and June 2025, reversing a $779 million deficit recorded a year earlier.
The reversal underscores Nigeria’s shifting demand patterns, as dollar scarcity and industrial bottlenecks increasingly tether its economy to US manufactured imports.
US exports to Nigeria soared 41 per cent year-onyear to $3.34 billion in H1 2025, up from $2.36 billion in the same period of 2024. Imports, meanwhile, contracted 12 per cent to $2.76 billion from $3.14 billion.
The swing of more than $1.3 billion was concentrated in June, when American exports surged to $919 million—almost tripling yearon-year—while imports rose 29 percent to $639 million.
That monthly shift flipped the balance from a $182 million deficit in June 2024 to a $280 million surplus in June 2025. Analysts attribute the trend to Nigeria’s dependence on US goods across critical sectors—machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and industrial chemicals—at a time when local producers are struggling with energy costs, FX shortages, and weak supply chains.
“The United States is essentially filling Nigeria’s supply gap,” said one Lagosbased economist. “This reinforces Nigeria’s structural import reliance even as oil shipments to the U.S. ease.” Yet while Nigeria’s reversal is striking, the broader African picture remains less flattering for Washington. Across the continent, the US still booked a $3.69 billion trade deficit in H1 2025, slightly wider than the $3.61 billion shortfall a year earlier.
Exports to Africa climbed 29 per cent to $19.7 billion, but imports rose faster in absolute terms, up 24 per cent to $23.4 billion. Nigeria, alongside Egypt, stood out as one of only two African markets where Washington secured a positive balance. Together, both nations delivered more than $3.3 billion in US surpluses, offsetting deeper deficits with resource-heavy exporters such as South Africa and Algeria.
Egypt alone contributed a $2.73 billion surplus, more than doubling last year’s figure, while South Africa’s imbalance ballooned to $6.32 billion, making it the United States’ toughest African partner. The shifting balances also intersect with Washington’s evolving tariff regime. Beginning August 7, 2025, the U.S. rolled out “reciprocal tariffs” to mirror restrictions faced by American exporters.
Nigeria’s new country rate was set at 15 per cent—up slightly from the 14 per cent imposed under April’s “Liberation Day” order. South Africa and Algeria were each assigned steeper 30 percent rates, while Egypt retained its 10 percent baseline, benefiting from its Qualifying Industrial Zone (QIZ) exemption that secures duty-free access for certain exports.
