ADEYINKA ADENIJI writes on the fallout of last weekend’s byelections for unoccupied seats across 12 states of the federation
Nigeria’s democracy went through another defining moment last Saturday as voters trooped out for by-elections across multiple states.
From the bustling streets of Ibadan to the remote wards of Munya, from the familiar political trenches of Anambra to the fragile balance of power in Edo, the polls served not just to fill vacant seats, but also to measure and indicate the pulse of a nation still grappling with its electoral culture.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), already burdened by public scepticism, once again found itself at the centre of scrutiny.
While some contests went smoothly, others were marred by malpractice, intimidation, and even violence, culminating in the declaration of the Zamfara House of Assembly by-election as inconclusive. For many Nigerians, events that shaped the by-elections provided a troubling mixture of democratic affirmation and democratic backsliding.
Landslides and humbling defeats
In Anambra State, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) reasserted its dominance in emphatic fashion. Emma Nwachukwu of APGA polled 90,408 votes to defeat All Progressives Congress (APC) Azuka Okwuosa – 19,847 votes, Young Progressives Party (YPP) – 6,538 votes, African Democratic Congress (ADC) – 2,889 votes and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) shocking 68 votes in the Anambra South senatorial race. Even more symbolic was APGA’s victory in Onitsha North I, where Prof. Ibiam Azikiwe polled 7,774 votes, again dwarfing his opponents.
The symbolism was not lost: APGA even defeated APC’s governorship hopeful Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu in his ward. APGA’s chairman in the state, Chief Ifeatu Obi-Okoye declared that the opposition had been “permanently humbled,” signalling that 2025 gubernatorial election in Anambra may already be tilting heavily in APGA’s favour. The outcome in Edo State produced another landslide, but in the opposite direction.
APC stormed to sweeping victories, with Dr. Joseph Ikpea recording 105,129 votes in the Edo Central senatorial race against PDP’s 15,146, and Hon. Omomsede Igbinedion winning Ovia Federal Constituency with 77,053 votes compared to PDP’s 3,838. These results consolidate APC’s grip under Governor Monday Okpebholo, who appears to have turned Edo into a stronghold after just one year in office.
Close calls and narrow escapes
The polls were not all onesided. In Adamawa’s Ganye Constituency, APC’s Musa Jauro scraped past the PDP with just 129 votes to spare, a stark reminder that political loyalties remain deeply divided in parts of the North-East. Meanwhile, Oyo State delivered one of the day’s shocks.
For the first time since 2011, the PDP reclaimed Ibadan North Federal Constituency, with Folajimi Oyekunle, defeating APC’s Adewale Olatunji by a margin of over 10,000 votes (18,404 to 8,312).
This was a morale booster for the PDP, which has been on the defensive in many states. In Ogun State, however, APC reaffirmed its dominance.
Adesola Elegbeji won the Remo/Sagamu/Ikenne federal seat with 41,237 votes against PDP’s 14,324, a victory credited to the state’s ruling machinery and the APC’s consolidation in South-West politics.
Cracks in the walls of power
The by-elections also exposed vulnerabilities among political heavyweights. In Jigawa State, the Minister of Defence, Mohammed Badaru, suffered a humiliating setback as the PDP overran his stronghold in Babura Local Government Area.
Although APC won the federal seat in the wider Babura/Garki constituency with 38,449 votes against PDP’s 13,519, the minister was unable to deliver his ward. Party Cracks in the walls of power The by-elections also exposed vulnerabilities among political heavyweights.
In Jigawa State, the Minister of Defence, Mohammed Badaru, suffered a humiliating setback as the PDP overran his stronghold in Babura Local Government Area.
But minors vote in the North and nobody complains
Although APC won the federal seat in the wider Babura/Garki constituency with 38,449 votes against PDP’s 13,519, the minister was unable to deliver his ward.
Party loyalists openly criticised him, branding him politically irrelevant and accusing him of neglect. In Niger State, the Munya by-election also tilted towards APC’s Mathew Dogara Daje, who won convincingly.
But the PDP candidate raised allegations of vote-buying and intimidation, reviving the age-old accusation that incumbents misuse state resources to tilt the playing field.
And then came Zamfara, where INEC had no choice but to declare the Kaura Namoda South constituency contest inconclusive after violence and malpractice marred the process. This decision highlighted the commission’s fragile balance between credibility and compromise.
Troubling conduct and electoral culture
Across the states, accreditation and voting began largely on time, with security forces deployed at polling stations. Yet, reports of intimidation, voter inducement, and underaged voting surfaced in several places.
Most disturbing was in Edo State, where suspected underaged voters were caught but quickly defended by political actors who argued: “But minors vote in the North and nobody complains.” This dangerous attempt to normalize illegality in the name of political expediency has grave implications.
If citizens begin to justify malpractice by citing regional precedents, the very foundation of Nigeria’s democracy becomes corroded. Elections are meant to be an expression of the people’s will, not a contest of who can bend the rules most effectively.
Litmus test for INEC
Saturday’s polls were widely seen as a test of INEC’s preparedness for 2027. The commission managed peaceful outcomes in some places, yet its credibility took hits where violence, intimidation, and underaged voting were tolerated.
The inconclusive declaration in Zamfara was both a cautionary step and an admission of how far Nigeria still has to go in ensuring free, fair and credible elections.
The security presence was heavy, but as seen in Niger and Jigawa, state power remains a tempting tool for manipulation. Without reforms in both mentality and procedure, Nigerians may continue to face elections that are “free” in form but compromised in substance.
Politics behind the results
APGA consolidated its Anambra fortress, riding on its reputation as the “homegrown party” with cultural legitimacy in the South-East. APC spread its wings, dominating in Edo, Ogun, Niger, Jigawa, and narrowly in Adamawa, reflecting its incumbency advantage and deep structures.
PDP showed sparks of revival, particularly with its victory in Ibadan North, but continued to struggle in places where internal divisions and loss of trust weakened its standing.
For voters, the outcomes were not just about party loyalty but about trust, delivery, and hope. Where parties had failed, voters punished them; where they had a semblance of stability, voters rewarded them.
Towards reform and renewal
The by-elections have once again revealed the contradictions in Nigeria’s democracy: strong voter enthusiasm on one hand, and cynical manipulation on the other.
The normalisation of malpractice, whether through underaged voting or weaponisation of poverty via vote-buying must be confronted head-on. Beyond reforms in INEC procedures, Nigeria urgently needs a mental and cultural reorientation: elections should be tools of genuine expression, not theatre for opportunists.
Parties must learn to sell policies, antecedents and credible hope, not intimidation or shortcuts. If the by-elections tell us anything, it is this: The Nigerian voter is still watching, still choosing, still punishing, and still rewarding. The challenge is whether the political class will listen, or whether history will repeat itself in 2027.
