Prof. Tukur MohammedBaba is the Publicity Secretary of Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF). In this interview, he speaks on opposition coalition on the platform of African Democratic Congress (ADC), and threat by some stakeholders of the party who are threatening legal action to challenge the takeover, among other issues, ANAYO EZUGWU writes

What is your thought on the coalition, the brewing crisis within the ADC, and also whether you think this coalition will implode?

Things are still unfolding. We are not sure. This is just the beginning. There is a lot more to come, but it’s not surprising, given the nature of our politics, and the nature of the people and personalities behind the coalition. This is expected. I think it’s normal. But more will come with time, if I am to give you a simple, direct answer.

There are persons who are saying that the coalition leaders are strange bedfellows who cannot work together. And within the ADC itself, there are people, who insisting that the former national chairman has no power to admit people into the party without other stakeholders having a say in this matter. What is your take in all these?

If I can address your very last question; it is possible that the All Progressives Congress (APC) has moved into the party to carry out a surgical operation. It’s possible; this is politics, and we’re gearing towards political campaigns. I wouldn’t say it’s a fair game, but this is part of the process. We need to go back to history. Coalitions are not new in our country, not to speak of other places in the world. Right from the First Republic, coalitions have been somewhat a characteristic of the political process.

But of course, in recent times, and I want to go as far back as 2011, 2015, 2023 to date, forms and types of coalitions have been tried, and some successfully, others without success. Now, to come back to emergence of this new coalition under the umbrella of the ADC, it’s again not surprising. For the last few months, some of the key promoters of this coalition have been jumping from one party to another.

In fact, even before then, if you take any of the individuals prominent in the coalition, you will see they have moved from parties to parties for the last maybe 16 years. So, it’s not surprising. The seeming crisis that is emerging is also not surprising. It has happened to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) only a few weeks ago, and now it has moved to the ADC. Again, this is not surprising. The questions to ask are: What is the basis of the coalition? What are they trying to achieve? We know that one is to unseat the current government. Fair enough. This is politics, and the democracy we practice, with all warts and stuff, calls for that.

But, of course, there are interests in all the parties, those who promote the parties, those who join the coalition, and so on. And these are not necessarily congruent. So, there is bound to be some acrimony. There is bound to be trading of interests, and so on. But probably you will say that what is disappointing is that up till now, we are talking of personalities.

We look for where people come from, but not what they have to deliver. We have tried this regional stuff a number of times… it has yielded nothing but bitter disappointment for the ordinary citizen of this country

Nobody is talking of ideology. And we know that all the parties in Nigeria, nearly all of them, except maybe one or two, the whole ideology is liberal democracy and neoliberalism. There aren’t much ideological differences. They’re all the same bedfellows. But I would have expected by now that the coalition would start with a programme, tell us what they need to do, what will be different, and how they intend to be different. But when you start talking of persons and so on, it’s a bit of a letdown. You ask yourself: When are we going to get it?

The coalition has alleged that North-East and North-West leaders in various capacities associated with the ADC have been invited to covert meetings with government officials under the guise of peace building. Can you speak to this?

If you are talking about using coercion to get people to either drop their ambitions or go to the APC, it’s been going on in various forms for the last one year. People are being coerced to leave their parties. That is part of it. People are being persuaded, whatever that involves, to leave their parties. And we have seen a lot of that going on and so on, whether as individuals or regional blocs and so on.

There are allegations that one of the major parties, the PDP, for example, has been devastated by an individual who refused to leave the party and is there. So, these allegations have been there. And of course, I have spoken to people who say the party is dead on arrival. Why? Because the ruling party will pull out all the stops to ensure that the disorganisation and conflict ensures in the new party, so that it will not recognise itself. But I have also spoken to others who are very confident. They are also just as determined to ensure that they weather the storm, so to speak.

So, you and I probably are jumping the gun. Things are unfolding; over the next few weeks, we will see more and more. I will personally think it will be, maybe by the end of the year, things will take shape. But the allegations are there. And honestly, not that I support it, but I don’t expect the ruling party to sit down, fold its arms, and not try to engineer internal dissension within the new opposition, given the personalities behind it, given their utterances that destroying or dislodging the APC from governance is a task that must be done.

Where do you think the presidential candidate of the ADC should come from; North or South?

If you ask me personally, I don’t care. I think we are wasting too much time, and too much energy in this country. We are not allowing this democracy to take root by insisting that a presidential candidate must come from one region or the other. If you ask me personally, I would prefer that at the helm of affairs, we go for the very best, someone who has an agenda for a united, strong, economically viable Nigeria.

Personally, I think all this idea of where the president should come from or the candidate should come from is a distraction, because we don’t look for ingredients of good leadership in that person. The whole thing begins and ends with where the presidential candidate should come. And I think, honestly, the nation’s time is being wasted by these politics. I think by now I would have preferred to see that we are beyond that. We look for where people come from, but not what they have to deliver. We have tried this regional stuff a number of times.

In the last eight years, it has yielded nothing but bitter disappointment for the ordinary citizen of this country. We insist on people, they come in, and it is disappointment. In 2015, we went through this. There was an election with mass appeal, so the leading candidate had a cult followership. Within six months, it became clear that it was a monumental mistake. And that carried on until the end, until 2023, and we have begun again.

You’re talking idealism, but you know ideals do not work in Nigerian politics. The fact on ground is the question I asked about, which is likely to divide ADC. Where would you want the presidential candidate to come from?

If you want my personal opinion; you are not getting it, short and simple. I live on idealism. Idealism is hope, and I am always hopeful no matter what the situation is. It’s not about me; It’s about the nation. As far as I’m concerned, if you are trying to put me in a pigeonhole, my pigeonhole is Nigeria. My pigeonhole is someone who will deliver the dividends of democracy.

My vision is for one who will care about the future of our children. I was hopeful, maybe naively so, in 2023, that some of the aberrations of the Muhammadu Buhari administration would be corrected, and that we’ll be put back on the path of national unity, national cohesion, and so on. But that’s not what we are seeing. The persons who will decide who will run are the electorate, and I’m only one of maybe 100 million. I cannot impose my view on that.

In terms of goals and strategic projections; do you think that this coalition will succeed?

My reading for now, given the little evidence that we have from the coalition, is that to me personally, it’s a bit of a disappointment. First, I have not seen a coherent statement of what they intend to do. Second, I am disturbed by the emphasis on personalities. It gives me a sense of déjà vu. We have been there before.

We are going back to square one again. Is it all about personalities or is it going to be about the future of Nigeria, and of course, how to get out of the many quagmires we have. If indeed the emphasis is on personalities, all those personalities, or rather nearly all the personalities in the coalition have serious baggage. For them to convince Nigerians, they have to bend over backwards and say something different. If it is all about personalities, I think they are dead on arrival. They must present a coherent policy programme and convince us on how to restore national institutions that have been captured.

They have to tell us how they intend to revitalize the economy and how they intend to promote inclusion. Honestly, I have talked to many people who are bitterly disappointed that we are not seeing what we should see, that is to say, a programme to get back Nigeria rather than to allow it to be captured, the way it is happening now.

Does this mean that for now the ACF is not aligned with the coalition?

I’m not speaking for the ACF; I’m speaking for myself as an analyst. The ACF has always been a non-partisan organisation. It’s a socio-cultural group of persons. The other issue is that we have not met. We have not taken a decision on this. So, I’m not speaking for the ACF. Let me make this very clear. In order to be able to take a position on that, we need to meet, we need to discuss.

But like I said, historically, we have never been clearly for any party. We have been for Nigeria, and within Nigeria groups in the country. So, the position is that the ACF has not met, and is not likely to endorse any tendency, because it’s an amalgamation of many interests. We have people of different political interests, different political inclinations.

And like it happened in the process leading up to 2023, the ACF invited all the major political parties, provided a platform for them to explain what they have for the country. Some appeared, President Bola Tinubu then appeared. Peter Obi appeared but some refused. So, the ACF does not and will not take a definite position for and against anybody. We are for or against policies that will be put on ground.