A new report by the World Bank has issued a stark warning: conflict and insecurity are driving a dangerous rise in extreme poverty, with Africa emerging as the hardest-hit region. More than 70% of the world’s conflict-affected poor now live in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the number is growing.
The report, released Thursday, paints a grim picture for countries caught in the crossfire of instability, including Nigeria, which, though not officially designated as a war zone, continues to grapple with widespread violence, insurgency, and institutional fragility.
According to the report, over 421 million people across 39 conflict-affected countries survive on less than $3 (₦4,500) per day, a figure projected to climb to 435 million by 2030, with the vast majority in Africa.
“For the past three years, more than 70% of people suffering from conflict and instability have been in Africa,” said Undermine Gill, Chief Economist at the World Bank. He added that: “These conditions will become chronic unless the world pays attention.”
While Nigeria is not formally classified as a country in conflict, its multi-front insecurity—from Boko Haram in the North-East, to banditry and farmer-herder clashes in the North-West and Middle Belt—has devastated rural livelihoods, stifled economic activity, and strained access to basic services.
The World Bank estimates that per capita income in conflict zones has declined by 1.8% annually since 2020, in stark contrast to an average growth of nearly 3% in other developing economies. The average income in fragile states is now just $1,500, compared to $6,900 elsewhere.
“Insecurity has crippled local economies, disrupted agriculture, and discouraged both domestic and foreign investment,” said M. Ayhan Kose, the Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist.
He added that life expectancy in fragile states is seven years lower than in other developing countries, while infant mortality is double the global average. Alarmingly, 18% of the population faces acute food insecurity.
The report also reveals that over 90% of school-age children in fragile states fail to meet basic reading standards, a statistic reflected in Nigeria’s conflict-affected regions where education infrastructure has been ravaged by violence.
While Nigeria’s youthful population is identified as a potential advantage in contrast to aging regions of Europe and Asia, the World Bank warns it could become a “demographic disaster” if the country fails to urgently invest in education, healthcare, and job creation.
The Bank is urging governments and international partners to shift focus toward conflict prevention, early-warning systems, and institutional rebuilding. It stresses that prevention is more cost-effective than rebuilding after crises erupt.
Despite the challenges, the report highlights untapped strengths: natural resource wealth, especially in Nigeria, Angola, Mozambique, and the DR Congo, nations that sit atop reserves critical for the green energy transition.
But without urgent reforms, the report warns, these resources will not translate into prosperity. “The cost of inaction is enormous. The time to act is now,” the report concludes.
