A Kenya-based intelligence company, ThinkBusiness Africa, has sharply contested the proposed 1,200 per cent increase in the sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Nigeria.

In a press conference on Tuesday in Lagos, the intelligence platform disagreed with the report by Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa entitled ‘Evaluating Nigeria’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax: A Critical Review of CAPPA’s Policy Proposals’. It examined the recent findings of its ‘Junk on Our Plates’ report.

CEO of ThinkBusiness Africa, Ogho Okiti, expressed concerns about the recommendations in CAPPA’s report, particularly the drastic increase of the SSB tax from N10 to N130 per litre.

In his address to journalists and stakeholders, Okiti described the proposed hike as “unjustified, poorly evidenced, and economically risky.” He accused CAPPA of relying on outdated and selectively applied data, citing the contradiction between CAPPA’s claim of rising obesity rates among urban women and its field data showing higher SSB consumption among adolescent males aged 15–19.

Okiti, during his presentation, said, “CAPPA’s 2024 report cites Adetiloye et al.: Obesity amongst women, but 15-19-year-olds consume SSBs more.”

He cited a report published on the Africa Business Convention website entitled ‘Evaluating Nigeria’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) Tax: A Critical Review of CAPPA’s Policy Proposals’.

The report read in part: “CAPPA’s first report cites Adetiloye et al., which highlights a high prevalence of obesity, particularly among urban women, due to sedentary lifestyles and dietary changes. However, CAPPA’s own findings show higher SSB consumption among young males aged 15–19, creating a mismatch between cause and effect in its justification for an SSB tax hike. CAPPA has not updated its data but has reached the same conclusions.”

Okiti further questioned the rationale behind increasing a tax that was only introduced in 2022 and has yet to have any publicly disclosed performance data.

He queried, “How can we consider a tax a failure when we have not even evaluated its impact? Recommending new taxes without assessing the current ones is fiscal adventurism, not responsible policy leadership.”

Okiti highlighted Nigeria’s relatively low per capita sugar consumption, 6.9 kg per year, as one of the lowest in the West African sub-region and pointed out that further raising the SSB tax could pose serious economic risks.

Beverage companies already face an effective tax burden of up to 45 per cent from corporate income tax, value-added tax, and education levies.

He warned that hiking the SSB tax could push small and medium enterprises to the brink, destabilising the sector and eroding competitiveness, potentially leading to widespread job losses.

Okiti stressed that ThinkBusiness Africa does not support excessive taxation as the sole solution for public health issues. Instead, the organisation advocates for a more holistic and evidence-based approach, which includes strengthening enforcement of existing National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control regulations on labelling and trans fats, expanding nutrition education in schools, promoting physical activity, and cracking down on misleading advertising.

He also recommended that Nigeria commission a Total Dietary Intake Study to better understand national consumption patterns before introducing new tax policies.

Okiti rejected accusations of defending corporate interests, stating, “We’re not defending any sector; we are defending the integrity of policymaking. When data is weak and assumptions are misaligned with national realities, we have a duty to speak up. Nigeria’s health challenges are real, but so are its economic vulnerabilities. We need a path that balances both.”

He concluded the session by urging government, civil society, academia, and the private sector to adopt a more collaborative, transparent, and context-specific approach to public health reform.

“We must tailor our strategies to Nigeria’s realities because what works in Oslo or Ottawa may not work in Owerri,” he said.

The Associate Director and Healthy Food Policy Manager at CAPPA, Abayomi Sarumi, disagreed with ThinkBusiness Africa’s arguments against it. He welcomed the firm’s rebuttal as “critical to fine-tuning policies that protect Nigerians”, but warned that industry criticism “should be devoid of data cherry-picking, mismatched arguments, and misleading narratives.”

He waved off the criticism from ThinkBusiness Africa on data use and presentation of evidence. CAPPA maintained that its data was correct and denied citing ‘Adetiloye et al.’ Rather, CAPPA said the data, which showed higher SSB consumption among young males aged 15–19, was consistent with ‘Adeloye et al. (2021).’

Sarumi said, “We stand by our data, and it is consistent across our work, including the simulation study on ‘Potential Fiscal and Public Health Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax in Nigeria’ and the ‘Junk on Our Plates’ marketing report of unhealthy food products in Nigeria. There is no Adetiloye et al. in any of our reports.”

CAPPA maintained that the Adeloye findings were consistent, regardless of the mismatched names, stating that the quoted portion in the African Business Convention web article, ‘…while CAPPA’s own findings show higher SSB consumption among young males aged 15–19’ is consistent with Adeloye et al. (2021).’

Notably, CAPPA’s ‘Potential Fiscal and Public Health Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax in Nigeria’ report references an Annals of Medicine journal publication by Adeloye and 13 other authors, entitled ‘Estimating the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria in 2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis.’ CAPPA referenced Adeloye et al. (2021) thrice in the publication.

CAPPA maintained its stance on calling for a 1,200 per cent tax hike, stating that ThinkBusiness Africa’s rebuttal failed to argue against it. Rather, it said that the current N10/litre tax “is barely a nudge, let alone a deterrent.”

Sarumi remarked, “This particular platform manages to stumble into agreement with us on some key points, like questioning the effectiveness of the current tax regime and calling for better use of the funds for public health.

“Their observation inadvertently reinforces our argument that the current N10 per litre has not reduced public consumption patterns of SSBs because it is simply too low, hence CAPPA’s advocacy for a sustainable and effective tax regime.”

CAPPA highlighted the World Health Organisation, stating, “According to WHO, effective health taxes should lead to at least a 20 per cent increase in the retail price of SSBs, or even 50 per cent, as recommended by Bloomberg’s Taskforce on Fiscal Policy for Health in order to achieve meaningful reductions in consumption and help prevent noncommunicable diseases.”