Nigeria’s major crude grades—Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe—rose above $77 per barrel on Friday and sustained the rise till Sunday, following Israel’s military strikes on Iran, heightening fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
According to data from Oilprice.com as of Sunday, Bonny Light surged to $78.62 per barrel, while Brass River and Qua Iboe closed at $77.09 and $77.14, respectively.
The rally marked a sharp jump from the average of $65 per barrel recorded just days earlier. The new price levels exceed the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel by more than $2, potentially offering short-term fiscal relief.
However, energy analysts warn that higher crude prices could trigger an increase in local fuel prices, as refiners face rising costs for crude, the primary feedstock for petrol and diesel production.
Oilprice.com attributed the price spike to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. “The geopolitical risk premium is back,” the platform noted, adding that Brent futures climbed to $74.23 per barrel and WTI to $73 amid expectations of a continued battle between Israel and Iran as well as fears of disruptions to key oil supply routes.
Though Israel’s strikes did not directly hit oil infrastructure, the anticipation of Iran’s response, which eventually happened, unsettled global markets on Friday.
Israel reportedly shut down some gas production facilities ahead of the weekend as a precaution, while concerns grow over potential threats to Red Sea shipping lanes and the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait, through which an estimated 19 million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow daily, represents nearly a fifth of global consumption. It was reported that any disruption could send prices even higher and strain global energy markets.
It is worth noting that global crude prices plunged to around $60 per barrel in February/March following trade tensions sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures.
This current price surge, however, is being driven largely by conflict risk rather than market fundamentals or supply decisions by OPEC+.
