Nigerians look up to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the last hope to effect change in the political leadership of the country in 2027. But will the commission live up to expectations? ONYEKACHI EZE Wrties on the chances
With the depletion of, and crises in major opposition parties, the hope for any credible change in Nigeria’s electoral system in the 2027 lies, not in the political parties but with the Nigeria voters. Even the acting National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic (Party PDP) Ambassador Umar Damagum, expressed the helplessness over the situation and lack of capability of the opposition parties to confront now the ‘behemoth’, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the coming elections.
As at last week, the number of APC controlled states has swelled to 21 with the defection of two PDP governors, Sheriff Oborewori of Delta State and Eno Umo of Akwa Ibom, to the ruling party. The number of Senators and members of the House of Representatives who have joined the party from opposition political parties also rose. APC now has 68 out of 109 Senators, and 207 out of 360 members of the House of Representatives. Each of them is expected to bring their electoral values to enhance APC’s fortunes in the 2027 general elections.
Damagum who accused the APC of coercing and intimidating PDP members into joining the ruling party, said Nigerians will revolt against the APC in 2027, adding, “The parameters that will make Nigerians revolt against them are all in place. This government has been so insensitive to the yearnings and feelings of people.
“We are Nigerians; taxpaying Nigerians, law-abiding citizens, and we have rights. And when the time comes, Nigerians will show them that they have rights. When the time comes, they will receive the result from Nigerians. It has happened before, and it will repeat itself.”
Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde, also expressed the same sentiment when he said that the 2027 election won’t be between PDP versus APC; “it would be Nigerians versus APC. Mark my word on that.” APC has not only conquered the political class but is extending the foray to traditional institution.
A video emerged last week where Ebonyi State government official was threatening traditional rulers in the state with dethronement if they fail to campaign for, and deliver APC in their domains. And going by what was witnessed in 2023 where fake religious leaders were assembled to endorse then candidate Bola Tinubu for the presidential election, one will not be surprised if pastors and imams are recruited to join the choruses.
Former Chairman of the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Prof Sam Amadi, said what Nigeria needs is ballot box revolution. Though he believed that the country has two ways of effecting a change in her political system – “ballot box revolution or an anarchical sort of violence-based revolution,” he prefers the former because, according to him, nobody can define the direction of the latter.
Said Amadi, “The irony is that revolution has not always historically, been positive. The only revolution for Nigeria is a ballot box revolution … because it has legitimacy and fits into the neutral politics.
“The revolution of red barrettes or green barrettes outside mobilising Nigerians towards electoral victory is both an illusion and a dangerous revolution. The real illusion is what Obidients are talking about: ballot box.”
The ballot box revolution is to be championed by the electorate and executed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). And this is a big challenge for the commission.
Unfortunately, the committee is facing credibility challenge. Since the return of democracy in the county in 1999, the commission has not lived up to the expectations of Nigerians. Every election conducted by the body was settled, not through the ballot box but at election tribunal. The fear of Nigerians is that even if the 2027 election is going to be between them and the ruling APC, as PDP hopes, or if there is going to be ballot box revolution, will INEC be truly an independent arbiter and allow the votes to count? Although since 2015, the commission has introduced many innovations aimed at enhancing credible, free and transparent electoral process, most elections still ended with credibility problems.
Former Minister of Power, Prof. Chinedu Nebo, said Nigeria has come to that point where nobody takes elections seriously “because if they (politicians) lose, they will make sure that the judiciary wins for them.” According to him, Nigeria is not a democracy, but “somewhere between ‘judiciocracy’ and ‘INECtocracy’. They are the ones who determine who rules Nigeria.” Nebo was of the opinion that the current INEC cannot deliver a free and fair election in 2027.
Section 15, Part 1 of the Third Schedule of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, gives INEC a wide range of responsibilities, which include organising, undertaking and supervising elections to various political offices.
In 1998 when General Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd.), then Nigeria head of state, announced the replacement of the now defunct National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON), he envisaged an electoral body that would be “open and transparent”, the one which would not be funded by government, to ensure its independence and protection from the whims and caprices of the executive arm of government. But unfortunately, this is only on paper.
There has been calls for INEC to be on the First Line Charge, to further enhance its independence. The commission is still being funded through budgetary allocations, which puts it in the apron spring of the executive.
That notwithstanding, INEC said it is not well funded. For instance, in 2024, it requested for N80 billion but was only allocated N40 billion. This year, the commission is seeking N126 billion whereas President Bola Tinubu only proposed N40 billion.
Probably the under-funding of the commission is deliberate, because as the saying goes, he who pays the piper dictates the tune!
Apart from the Nigeria government’s allocation, INEC said it external assistance from donor agencies and countries is limited only to technical aid, consultancy services, and capacity-building initiatives, not direct funding.
INEC has been accused of complicity in the leadership crisis that dogged many opposition political parties. And when a party is weak, especially an opposition political party, it becomes ineffective to put the ruling party in check. That is exactly the situation at the moment in Nigeria.
The three major opposition parties in the country – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), have been enmeshed in leadership crisis shortly after the 2023 general elections. This has created room for members of these parties to defect to the APC.
The Supreme Court in its latest judgement said power to choose party leadership is the internal affairs of political parties.
INEC has a department in charge of political party affairs, a Political Parties’ Monitoring department, which is saddled with among other things, the responsibility of monitoring party primaries, congresses, and conventions to ensure internal democracy and compliance with regulations, as well as ensuring that the parties comply with constitutional requirements.
The commission monitored the congresses where the parties elect their leaders, but up till now has not made a statement to resolve the crisis. Even where a judicial pronouncement was made, INEC has continued to remain silent.
President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) Comrade Joe Ajaero, accused INEC of playing politics with the crisis in the Labour Party, and said the commission knew that there was a consent judgement between the NLC and another group that accepted Julius Abure as Labour Party National Chairman.
Said Ajaero, “If INEC was the one that facilitated this and the consent judgement. Now INEC which has seen to actualise the consent judgement as an agreement by all stakeholders and recognised by the court then it means INEC is playing politics by refusing to abide by the outcome of the Umuahia meeting and that is a fact.
Labour Party stakeholders had met in Umuahia, Abia State last year and set up a National Caretaker Committee (NCC) headed by former Minister of Finance, Senator Esther Nenadi Usman. The Supreme Court on April 4, upheld the appeal of Usman-led NCC and dismissed the Court of Appeal judgement that recognised Julius Abure as Labour Party National Chairman. The certified true copy (CTC) of the judgement has been submitted to INEC, but the commission is yet to act on it.
Ajaero said INEC which has always pleaded alignment with the pronouncement of the court of law in the leadership issues in the Labour Party has failed “to give full effect to the conclusive judgement of the Supreme Court by removing every insignia of Mr. Julius Abure and his National Working Committee from its portals.”
Julius Abure who assumed office in 2021 to serve out the tenure of late Abdulsam, organised a national convention in March 2024 where he claimed he was returned as National Chairman. INEC did not monitor the convention and promptly rejected Abure as Labour Party National Chairman until the court decided otherwise. But his name is still on INEC website two months after the Supreme Court judgement.
Rotimi Oyekanmi, Chief Press Secretary of the INEC Chairman, said the commission has not made any decision on the leadership crisis of the party, and that the names of “the national officers of the LP had previously been uploaded to our website following a court order, not related in any way to the latest judgement of the Supreme Court.” Oyekanmi said the commission “is carefully studying the judgement of the Supreme Court on the Labour Party and will communicate its decision to the public in due course.”
But the question is, how long will it take the commission to study the judgement and come up with a decision?
INEC’s aloofness is also blamed on the defections in political parties. The commission was accused of failure strictly enforce constitutional provisions, which empowers the commission to declare seats vacant upon unlawful defection, where elected officials bring legal demands for the seat, and conduct byelections promptly. This is in line with Section 68(1)(g) of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution and the Electoral Act. No seat of the National Assembly who defected to other political party has been declared vacant.
Nigeria at present has 19 registered political parties. The last party registered was Youth Party (YP), which was registered in 2023, through court order. INEC is accused of denying political associations registration, probably on the order of the executive. But President Tinubu in his Democracy Day speech on June 12 delivered at the National Assembly, denied stopping INEC from registering new political parties.
The number of political associations waiting for registration with INEC as at December 2024, was 101. The commission’s explanation was that these applications were undergoing examination to determine their eligibility for registration. With less than two years to the next general elections, the associations still await INEC’s registration, after all the APC was registered barely a year to the 2015 general elections and it still won the presidency.
