The continued oil prices fall at the global market is gradually worsening Federal Government’s projections with regard to the the N54.99 trillion 2025 budget.

Oil prices again crashed yesterday by more than $1 per barrel following the decision by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to increase its output hikes for May and June. The development has already dislocated government’s budget outlook, which was projected at $75 per barrel.

Yesterday, Brent crude futures fell by $1.54, or 2.51 per cent, to trade at $59.75 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $1.64, or 2.81 per cent to trade at $56.61 per barrel.

To aggravate Nigeria’s revenue woes, its crude oil production has also been very low. According to OPEC, Nigeria’s oil output plunged to 1.401mbpd in March, which is the lowest so far in 2025, using direct communication.

This is a decline of 64,000barrel per day when compared to 1.465mbpd in February. OPEC’s direct communication Oil Monthly Output Report also showed that Nigeria’s output in January was 1.539mbpd.

The current oil price and output of the country in the past three months have both fallen short of Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark. The total amount of the FG’s 2025 budget is N54.99 trillion, as signed into law by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

This budget aims to drive economic recovery, stability, and growth, with significant investments in critical sectors. The FG’s 2025 had oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel and daily production of 2.06 million barrels. It is projected that FG may lose about N19.6 trillion in projected oil revenue if these current trends continue through the year.

The revenue shortfall becomes compounded considering that the exchange rate has weakened to around N1,600/$, as against the N1,500/$ assumption used in the budget benchmark. Experts have projected that with the negative developments, the fiscal deficit could skyrocket from the planned N13 trillion to as much as N30.79 trillion.