The resurgence of Boko Haram in Borno State, North East region; the emergence of the Lakurawa in Sokoto State, North West region as well as the intensified brutal attacks on rural agrarian communities in the North Central states of Plateau and Benue may be harbingers of what lies ahead as politicians across political parties and regional divides commence mobilisation ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Governor Umara Zulum of Borno State recently raised the alarm that the “technically defeated” terrorist group, Boko Haram, was staging a comeback following multiple attacks on both military formations and the civil populace in the state. The spate of violence had since spread to other parts of the country.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was elected on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2023, will be clocking two years in office by May 29, 2025. Even though he has two more years to complete his first term, there are visible signs that he is already strategising and jostling to seek a second term.
However, some political analysts have said that a second term for Tinubu will be largely dependent on what the opposition does or does not do between now and the next polls. It will also depend on how the President tackles these rising waves of insecurity because they portend grave dangers for his administration in the next two years.
Sunday Telegraph gathered that already Tinubu’s rating among the electorate is plummeting by the day across the country. It is even more so in the northern parts of the country, where political elite have been very critical of his harsh economic policies, lack of empathy for the citizenry and his nepotistic tendencies that have resulted in nearly every significant political appointment going to individuals from the Yoruba ethnic stock.
There are some indications that the current wave of insecurity may not be unconnected with the growing discontentment among the political elite in the North, many of whom supported Tinubu to ascend to power in 2023 but are now very bitter not only about his rather lacklustre performance, but drab style of leadership.
As if the hue and cry about economic hardship were not enough, some prominent political actors from the North have been venting their grievances openly and threatening to mobilise their people against Tinubu at the 2027 polls.
For instance, a former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-rufai, recently left the APC and joined the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and vowed to lead the opposition bloc to deny Tinubu a second term. Similarly, another prominent northern political actor, Dr Hakeem Baba Ahmed, recently resigned from the Tinubu government, where he served as a Political Adviser in the Office of the Vice President, citing some undisclosed personal reasons. Baba Ahmed, a former spokesperson of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) had since returned to the trenches from where he has been mobilising the northern intelligentsia to chart a new course towards 2027.
Those familiar with these political trends believe the resurging violence and the ongoing political, realignments were not coincidental but well calculated moves to rally the North against Tinubu as they did against President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.
It would be recalled that Jonathan’s tenure (2011-2015) became a nightmare as soon as he crossed the mid-term milestone and was preparing to seek a second term mandate. From mid-2013 into early 2014, the Boko Haram terrorists were not only sacking communities, detonating bombs and destroying public infrastructure, they were able to bomb the Headquarters of the Nigeria Police Force and the United Nations (UN)Building, both inside Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory.
It was also in 2014 that the group successfully abducted about 276 students of the Governnent Girls Secondary School, Chibok, Borno State. This singular mass abduction portrayed the Jonathan administration as “weak and clueless” and the opposition party, APC capitalised on it to launch a global campaign against the Jonathan government with the support of the United States.
All these were possible because of the tacit support the terrorist group got from a section of the political elite opposed to Jonathan. From the unfolding political developments, it would seem that history is about to repeat itself except Tinubu rolls up his sleeves to tackle the security threats headlong.
Meanwhile, the National Youth Council of Nigeria (NYCN) and Conference of Civil Society for Peace, Security and National Development (CCSPSND) have raised the alarm over the rising insecurity in the country.
In the last few weeks, Nigeria had experienced a series of brutal massacres of innocent citizens, particularly in Benue, Plateau, Borno and Katsina states. These attacks are believed to have been launched by the forces of Boko/ISWAP/Lakurawa and suspected armed herders against defenceless Nigerians.
Addressing a press conference in Abuja, last week Thursday, NYCN President, Ambassador Solomon Adodo, decried the ugly security situation in the country, alleging that it was masterminded by desperate politicians scheming ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Adodo said: “We address you with a heavy heart, yet an unwavering resolve to speak up on one of the most critical challenges confronting our beloved nation. Sadly, insecurity has been on the rise across our communities. Fear and uncertainty have taken root as businesses suffer, families mourn and our collective peace remains under siege.”
“What makes this situation even more distressing is the growing suspicion that some unscrupulous politicians are fueling these crises for their own selfish political gains, especially as we approach the 2027 elections.
“In fact, credible intelligence and troubling reports at our disposal suggest that some politicians are actively sponsoring violence, arming criminal bandits, and manipulating public sentiment to undermine the government of President Bola Tinubu.
“Let me state unequivocally that insecurity must never be weaponised for anybody’s political ambition. Those using chaos and anarchy as a strategy to discredit the administration and advance their own political interests ahead of the 2027 general elections should desist forthwith.”
In an exclusive interview with Sunday Telegraph last week, Prophet Isah El-Buba, the President of the El-Buba Outreach Ministries International, said that President Tinubu still had time to avoid the Jonathan scenario. He said that if the president failed to put things in order, he might suffer a similar fate that befell Jonathan.
He said: “If he does not put things right; yes, sir! He has this year to put things right, in the next six months. If he doesn’t, there’s going to be a wave and he won’t be able to stand it. I know, I can tell you that Nigerians are coming together. I’ve spoken to the political class. I’ve told them to go and sit down among themselves and do what is just right. But with the citizens, we are working behind the scene.”
