Dele Momodu is a former presidential aspirant on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In this interview, he speaks on the planned opposition coalition against President Bola Tinubu by some political actors ahead of the 2027 general election, among other issues, ANAYO EZUGWU writes

The PDP governors met in Oyo State recently and declared that they won’t join any coalition or merger. They said other parties should rather join them to wrest power from the APC. Do those governors speak for members of the PDP?

Of course, to a large extent, governors are very powerful in any political party because they hold most of the aces. But in the case of PDP, I’ll confess that the situation has been quite embarrassing to a lot of us, especially those of us who are not career politicians.

We are in the party because we needed an alternative to the All Progressives Congress (APC). So, if they say they are not joining any coalition or the coalition should join them, I think it’s a matter of semantics.

We’re still saying the same thing. They are not saying we can go about it alone. I don’t think any party, whether PDP, Labour Party, APGA, or any of the major opposition parties, can do it alone against a formidable party like APC or a very determined Bola Tinubu, who is already president. Even when he was not president, we faced a lot of fire.

And now, when you have Tinubu and Nyesom Wike on one side, it means that you have to be battle-ready. You have to assemble all your weapons and be ready for the battle ahead because 2027 is going to be like the World Cup, and you need your best players.

When one thinks about the crisis in the PDP and the belief that some of your members are working against the party; how much role would that play in the coming election?

Well, there are several ways of looking at it. The first is that you can’t blame some of those who are working with Tinubu. Some people are afraid of themselves.

They need to survive. In politics, it’s a game of survival. So, someone like Wike, for example, what can he do? Without Tinubu, he would have become nobody instantly. And Tinubu has given him so much power. So, to whom much is given, much is expected.

So, I’m not surprised that he would swim or sink with Tinubu. He has no other option. And then his ambition is as voluptuous and vulnerable as that of Tinubu.

But unfortunately, he has to keep his ambition in abeyance pending the time there will be an opening and that might be like waiting for Godot. There are others; the governors, who are being threatened underground.

They are being threatened with if they don’t support Tinubu, especially those who want a second term, then they are going to lose election.

So, the strategy this time is different from just getting the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), grabbing power and running with it. This time, they are going to need to build more prisons.

They are going to need to use force to coerce people into accepting the party. I don’t think they are even looking at the election. I think they are looking at a different strategy that if possible, acquire as many states as possible in arrears and in advance.

There is talk that Atiku Abubakar and his supporters are trying to get ex-President Muhammadu Buhari to move his Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc of the APC to the new planned coalition, which would be reminiscent of what happened when Peter Obi moved from PDP to the Labour Party ahead of the 2023 elections. As an insider, give us the inside track on that?

I don’t have the inside track. All I know is that opposition leaders are very determined this time around to work together. The truth of the matter is that Atiku cannot go it alone.

Peter Obi cannot go it alone. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso cannot go it alone. Same with whosoever wants to run.

So, naturally, they have to find a way to pay APC back in its coins. I was one of those who supported the APC in 2014-2015.

So, they are going to pay them back in their coins by at least trying to get a chunk of all the parties, including APC, to come together. So, if our governors are saying they don’t want to go into a coalition, I don’t know what that means.

All I know is that opposition leaders are very determined this time around to work together

It means that, surreptitiously, they are probably working for a Tinubu presidency. But people must learn from history. I’m a good student of political history.

The only way Lagos State under Tinubu, survived the blistering attack from the Olusegun Obasanjo government was because they were able to stand alone. When you are bold, a bully only respects a bully. But all of us are already behaving like chickens.

People panic. Oh, Tinubu; hey are going to use the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), they are going to arrest them. The thing is that we all like to read about Nelson Mandela in South Africa. We all like to read about struggles.

Even in Nigeria, we had the nationalists who struggled for our independence. However, it seems suddenly everybody just feels that power can be offered to you on a platter. Nobody wants to risk anything, and that is the problem.

But I can tell you that any governor, any senator, any House member who may be tempted to just jump ship, may jump to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

That is my view. That is why some of us are appealing to them to see that this thing is doable. If you ask me, I will analyse it. It is very doable if they agree to work together, but if everybody is still playing on ego, it will be difficult.

With the crisis in PDP, Labour Party and APC, who would you say at this point has the advantage or the edge as we look ahead and do you think power can change hands in 2027?

I have no doubt whatsoever that it can. You see, when you look at the political history as I mentioned earlier, look at APC itself, how it came from nowhere, and people were telling us that, oh, it’s not possible, you can’t remove PDP. PDP was the biggest, the largest political party in Africa and with access to stupendous cash.

But when the people are determined, when the people are forced to get desperate, anything can happen. That is why I believe that all the money they’re already throwing around; we’re seeing it. They are not hiding it on social media.

They are going from state to state trying to see if they can buy everyone but that is not possible. There is no leader, no matter who he is, who can buy every electorate. That is not possible. You can’t even buy enough. Let’s say you need 15 to 20 million people.

How much are you going to give them? So, you will go from state to state, from local government to local government and be distributing money. You will look stupid at the end of the day. And some people will take your money and disappear with it. More often than not, the money you are spending, you have to give to certain leaders.

You cannot do it directly. But talking about who leads the opposition and all that; my theory is very simple and straightforward. No Southern candidate can take on Tinubu except a Goodluck Jonathan, for example. But I doubt if he would want to stress himself.

He’s not the kind of person; you can see that he’s a man of contentment, and he’s an intellectual who believes that even where he goes, he never expected to get to that level. So, it might be difficult for him. The only man they fear, and that’s why they’re already demarketing him in advance, is Atiku Abubakar.

A lot of people are wondering why it’s looking as if the coalition is being erected around the candidacy of Atiku, even though other potential coalition leadership members appear to have a problem with giving that candidacy to Atiku…

You have to be realistic. It’s a game of numbers and it’s also a game of your network. There’s no one in Nigeria today as experienced, as exposed, as networked as Atiku Abubakar from 1993, when he stepped down for Chief MKO Abiola in Jos. So, when people mention him, it is based even on what has happened elsewhere.

Why do you think the Republicans in America will risk a Donald Trump, a man who already lost the election, who already got indicted on many felonies? It is because they need him.

Now, I will give you a scientific answer. According to Isaac Newton, actions and reactions are always equal and opposite. For anybody to face a Tinubu, that person has to come from the opposite direction. Which means it must be someone who can get the North to coalesce behind him.

So, I pray that the coalition will be able to achieve that. I don’t know if they will, but I’m sure they are working on that. Then it must be someone who has a substantial network in the South. There is no other person I can see who has that kind of network behind him.

So, that’s why everybody is talking about Atiku. And those who are trying to demarket him; the same people are not discouraging Tinubu. There are some people, like my friend, Senator Shehu Sani, who said the other day that we should just allow Tinubu to do his eight years. That’s not democracy.

Democracy as practised in Nigeria, is done every four years because it is an examination. You pass, or you fail. The only qualification cannot be about where you come from. The only qualification we’re seeing now is that it should be a southerner.

What if Tinubu’s reforms, for example, kick in and Nigeria starts to turn the tide, and you start to see a lot of foreign investment coming in?

Look, by this time next year, Tinubu will have done about three years. I don’t see any magic or miracle he’s going to perform between now and then. That’s my personal view.

There is a saying that a child, who is going to be bright, even right from when he’s very little, you will see signs of that brightness.

A man wanted, after eight years, an extension of his governorship, while simultaneously holding on to one of the biggest ministerial portfolios in Nigeria and the President indulged him

The APC under Tinubu, I believe, has been quite careless. And I’ll give you a few examples. Number one, how does a political party wake up and start attacking its biggest brand? That’s Buhari. How does a president wake up and start attacking his immediate predecessor from the same political party?

For me, they’ve been quite reckless. I don’t know what happened to them. Maybe after getting power, they thought, okay, they no longer need anybody.

Now, you can see twice in the last few weeks, their leadership have been running, going to see Buhari in Kaduna. Our coalition in making has also been going there because they know that he is the biggest northern star.

Buhari that I know, is a principled man, e’s likely to support Tinubu personally. But collectively, he might not be able to control his foot soldiers. And when that happens, so where will this APC thing come from?

And one thing I can give to the North, unlike some of us down south, is that they are very bold. They are not afraid to confront challenges.

So, if that happens and they decide that they don’t want Tinubu, there’s nothing APC can do. They will have to kill everybody in the place.

What do you make of what’s going on in Rivers State with the declaration of a state of emergency?

There was no political upheaval in Rivers. It was deliberately induced. It’s like when you induce coma. So, what they did was play a game that would eventually climax in declaring a state of emergency. Rivers State is still one of the most peaceful states in Nigeria today.

You can see, sometimes, when you talk about a state of emergency, you still see pockets of attacks, resistance and everything. But people are okay, but they are disappointed.

What happened was a case of daylight robbery. Nobody has declared a state of emergency in Brono State. Nobody has declared a state of emergency in Zamfara.

So, tell me what happened in Rivers. It’s about one man’s ambition. A man wanted, after eight years, an extension of his governorship, while simultaneously holding on to one of the biggest ministerial portfolios in Nigeria and the President indulged him. When the crisis started, they invited both parties.

Governor Sim Fubara complied, while Wike did not comply. I expected that the President would have instructed Wike to face his business in Abuja. Wike is a damn good fellow when it comes to projects. I say that about him all the time.

The only problem he has is anger management. Let me put it that way. They want to carry the same thing to Bayelsa State and the governor is already crying, saying, please help me, rescue me. How do you allow a man to go on a rampage when you can see what happened? So, it was deliberate. They wanted to pocket Rivers not only for votes, but for the resources of state.

How can one man be so powerful that he can do these kinds of things, not only hold a state to ransom for two years, but with a flick of his thumb get the President to declare a state of emergency?

It is because their interests align. The interests of the President and Wike align. You don’t need a soothsayer to tell you that. It’s as simple as ABC. Wike, like I told you, is the only man who is not afraid to bring the roof down if necessar.

What do you think is going to happen in Rivers going forward?

I don’t know. They already got what they wanted. They have access to the resources of the state. The man at the helm of affairs, is making appointments as if he’s producing popcorn.

So, he’s doing whatever he wishes. And nobody is going to stop him for as long as the interests align. As I said, that’s what’s going on.

US District Court for the District of Columbia has ordered law enforcement agencies, including the State Department, CIA, FBI, IRS, and Drug Enforcement Agency, to release confidential information generated on President Tinubu during a purported US federal investigation in the 1990s. What do you make of that?

It’s just going to end up as an academic exercise. I don’t think Nigerians are moved by anything again. And I agree with Mr. Bayo Onanuga’s analysis that nothing new is going to come out of it, or nothing exceptional is going to be discovered. It’s going to be the same rehash of the same story again.

I think Nigerians have already accepted that no matter how bad the situation is, we have a president, so let’s live with him. What I’m not sure about is if they’re ready to live with him for eight years or if possibly, for more years, because anything can happen these days.