Senator Jimoh Ibrahim represents Ondo South Senatorial District at the National Assembly. In this interview, the chairman of Senate Committee on Interparliamentary Affairs., speaks on President Donald Trump and global concerns for world peace and stability as well as recent developments in the polity, ANAYO EZUGWU writes

Donald Trump has ascended to power in the United States with a raft of executive orders. What do you make of his inauguration speech?

Understanding President Donald Trump requires that you distil international theories about what is happening in America. Who is Trump? Is he a liberalist a realist or a conservatist? If you find Trump to be a realist, you will expect characteristics of a realist in his foreign policy.

If you see Trump as a liberalist, then you expect that you will see liberalist policy. Now, let’s start with America. America is a democratic liberal state, but Trump is a realist. So, there is some sort of conflict here. That’s a realist running a liberal state.

What is a liberal state? It is a converging nation that believes in corporations and collaborations to resolve things and other new international beliefs. Now, one example of a liberalist back home is President Bola Tinubu. He’s a liberalist, he’s not a realist.

So, again, when you’re against foreign policy, you see situations where a liberal Tinubu is going to discuss with a realist Trump. Now, who is a realist? A realist is somebody who has aggressiveness for power in the state of statism.

That simply means that they want to believe something unusual will happen tomorrow, and they need to prepare for it today by acquiring power. And that is Trump. So, in our political economy, you will see tariffs, because realistically, realists want to make money now. After all, they don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow.

They believe that there is need to get aggressive money today to secure tomorrow or aggressive military equipment in case there is war, political insurgency, or conflict. We are not going to be buying those ammunitions when the conflict occurs but we have to buy them now in preparedness towards the conflict.

What should the world expect from what Trump is doing now when it comes to NATO and other allies like Africa and Nigeria?

I don’t think he’s as bad as that. He’s not a disruptor. No, I don’t think so. That is the character of realists. What he’s trying to do is to show that, look, it’s about America first, not America using her resources to sacrifice the entire global system.

Let’s look at it from preparedness to save America’s sovereignty. You want to say sovereignty is hypocrisy because no country in the world has absolute sovereignty. But he is saying that ‘we, Americans, are distorted by the dauntlessness of sovereignty practice, so we need to recover America back. ‘ Don’t forget his conclusion.

We need to do more impossibilities, and in fact, America is good at doing impossible things according to Trump. That is how the realists behave, and that is how they talk.

If you look at the conservative, for example, you would distinguish the taxonomy and the praxis of Trump. You know Trump better when you look at his character and his status equality. That would tell you what to discuss with him, presumably, what report you get from Trump when you have issues with him or discussions with him.

So, here is somebody saying ‘America, I will take you at my mind first. I’m going to do everything to comply with your liberalism theory.’ ‘But when I engage Panama, I’m going to recover Panama back because we never gave it to the Chinese. We gave Panama back to Panama. We didn’t give it to China.

2027 is about performance. It is difficult to say that the government is not performing in the face of conflict… The moral parameter is that the government is performing

But China is running it.’ He is claiming that China is running Panama, but China is not running it. That is a realist for you. He is looking for where to strike, whether you like it or not. So, he has two caps. The first cap is comportment with ideas and reality of liberalism in consonance with American democratic principles.

The second one is himself. Trump is saying ‘I’m going to be the middle person. I’m not going to just sit down here quietly as Trump. So, I’m withdrawing my signature, you know, from climate change.’ What is so special about that because America is the second highest polluter of the environment in the world and they must pay for it.

Why Africa is impoverished and is in poverty, is because the environment is polluted and they cannot react to the impact of climate change. He is drawing America away from their responsibility so that they don’t pay. The demand after the signature of the agreement, is that wherever there is pollution, you have to pay for it.

The polluter must pay but he is saying I won’t do that. Remember also in the Coto Convention, the Senate in America didn’t pass that convention because Barack Obama just said that they cannot take responsibility for polluting the world or damaging the environment.

In terms of the fact that Nigeria is a mono-economy that is dependant on oil, how should Nigeria position themselves in the Trump, era?

I think we started that at the foundation of this interview.; that America is a liberal democratic state and Trump is a realist. You know who realists are and how they view things. So, if Nigeria is going to have issues or have a discussion with America, you have to understand that you are going to deal with a real its in a liberal state. This is very important. So, once you know that, it is very easy to deal with him. I mean to engage him in international relations and diplomacy.

So, how would you engage him in terms of what you are saying?

I do know that Trump’s American presidency portrays a bad omen to the international institutions. I don’t need anybody to teach me that. And Nigeria must recognize that.

It would be a good day for the United Nations because the realists believe that international institutions are epiphenomena. They don’t have a mind of their own, therefore, we send them back if we have to do.

That’s the realist. But again, the right of international organizations is traceable to the liberalists, who believe that it is when the world converges, collaborates, and cooperates, that we can maintain international order. And don’t forget, at the centre of international engagement is power, interest, and authority. So, whose interest is Trump pursuing? He has told you.

America first, and America second, and America third but not that ‘we stay there as quiet, as we expected. We’re going to close our border against any other person. We don’t want to see them. We will tax foreign companies.’ If he taxes foreign companies; what is the end consequence of taxation? It all depends on who buys the goods.

Who buys the goods he is taxing? Americans! So, if you say, you tax Google more, a Chinese company, it’s going to fall back on Americans. Americans use Google product much more. So, you see some conflicting policy decisions.

Do you think there is going to be more of that chaos because he started by saying I want to bring peace but then it looks like the decisions he’s making do not tend towards that?

But you know that Russia is a realist. I mean, Vladmir Putin is a realist. He’s not a liberalist. So, he will agree with Trump, who is also a realist. They will be in bed together because these are two realists.

They understand what they’re talking about. They are talking about power, aggressiveness, and the acquisition of power to solve or resolve crises or sadism.

What does that portend for the UkraineRussia war because he said that it’s in the interest of Putin and Zelensky to strike a deal?

The deal means several things. It’s objectively subjective. But I can tell you very clearly that Putin will agree with Trump because two of them are realists, they are not liberalists and I think they can contain war or political insurgency in that region. That will be the first advantage, which will be on the table.

The second one is to look at the trend of China as well as America. Again, who are the Chinese? Are they liberal? No, they are not liberal democrats.

China has never claimed to be a democratic liberal. But when you come back to the Middle East; you see what is happening with Britain and then drive down to the African system or African democracy, again, I think it’s going to be a good engagement.

We should not lose hope because what Trump is trying to say is that ‘I’m aggressive about my internal democracy. Nobody is taking that from me. But for the rest of the world, I’m prepared for whatever you want to do with me or that I want to do with you. I never mind as far as the interests of Americans are protected.’

What does his executive orders mean as regards to democracy?

Like I told you, these are interests and engagement. If Trump ran into crisis during his campaign or the first term and people were arrested and he went back to office, he could decide to free them.

There is nothing you can do about that. You have to consider power. If you also look at the immediate past president of America, he granted pardon to his children who have committed offences. So, it’s about political interest. That’s why I said the consequence of Trump’s coming is obvious to the international system.

For example, he will not believe in international organisations and he may not fund them. So, you expect a very tough time at the United Nations. Again, decisions of the United Nations will not be binding on America. Even the Security Council, you expect some bit of challenges.

Implementation of those decisions, you expect some bit of challenges because the realists don’t believe in international organisations. Like I said, they say it’s a phenomenon, meaning that they don’t have a mind of their own.

Let’s come back home, the legislature is tinkering with electoral reforms, where are we on electoral reforms and why has it been difficult for Nigeria to have credible and transparent elections like Ghana and Senegal?

You can’t compare Nigeria easily with a small country like Ghana. Ghana is like Lagos State in population. You know we are very big, so there are a lot of converging complexities around our elections.

You can’t also compare Nigeria with America, which got its independence years ago. But that is not a defence for not getting things right. Now, the Tinubu government has come with an agenda of conducting free and fair elections.

And I think this takes time. Electoral reform is a constitutional issue; it’s not something that the Senate can just sit down and pass because you have to go through constitutional reform to ensure that things happen.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has to bring a proposal, and we also have to conduct what we call public hearings to make sure that it is in the interest of the public. We have to also publish whatever laws that we propose for the public to make contributions towards the law.

Again, you know that most of these things are also very expensive and they’re not easy. But we just have to do it because democracy is the first agenda in the value stick of the Tinubu administration.

Nigerians are worried that INEC is not independent. How can these reforms of making INEC independent be included in these reforms?

The issue of independence is subjectively objective. What do you think is independent to you and what is it to me and to Nigerians? You can’t have a consensus under them. Even if there are limitations there, which I agree with you, it’s also the case left for the judiciary.

Many governors have been removed by the Supreme Court; did the world come to an end? Every election goes to the tribunal or court. sometimes you compromise.

That is the value of Chapter 4, you know, Section 35 or 36 of the Constitution of the Republic of Nigeria, freedom of association, freedom of movement, freedom of movement from one party to another.

If any provision of the Electoral Act is a conflict with the position of the Constitution, to the extent of its consistency, it is void and unenforceable? People claim rights that are embedded in the Constitution, and when these rights are fundamentally enforced, they come back to say again that there are pains.

So, you see this type of converging complexities arise, which we need to resolve. But I can tell you that our democracy will take time to grow. You don’t expect that all the vulnerabilities of democracies will be solved in one day, but I think we are moving in the right direction

Our democracy will take time to grow. You don’t expect that all the vulnerabilities of democracy will be solved in one day, but I think we are moving in the right direction

The President is promising a N1 trillion economy with a budget deficit of N13 trillion and a debt servicing of N15.8 trillion. How feasible is this?

Very feasible! The budget is N49.7 trillion, to get it right. And then the deficit financing of the budget is N15 trillion. Now, the debt servicing component of the budget is N16 trillion. If you add N15 trillion to N16 trillion, it will give you N31 trillion.

Things are really bad. Nigeria was left by the last administration in a financial mess, where you have N30 trillion printed by ways and means, which doesn’t link to any development project.

So, if the Tinubu administration is coming to manage an economy with N31 trillion or N47 trillion in compromise, then we need to give them kudos. That’s the best budget I’ve ever read. It’s the best budget I’ve ever seen. There is good rationality behind the thinking. Now, using N16 trillion to service debt is 68 per cent of revenue generation.

But in the last administration, we were servicing debt with 96 per cent of revenue. We are just coming back, grasping the fresh air and moving forward. So, when you look at a deficit of N15 trillion, it means that that money is not available. But don’t forget, he told us how we will get money.

He had said clearly that he will increase production of crude oil from 1.2 million barrels a day to about 2.02 million barrels a day. And he is going to spend N5 trillion on national security to make sure that he achieves that. If he achieves that, then of course, what is the worry?

And again, the external reserve was $40 billion at the time it was still in the budget. So, it means that Nigeria is getting things right and is on the right path.

Are we getting things right because more Nigerians have gone into multidimensional poverty, there’s hardship, there’s anger, there’s hunger in that land. So, what do you make of the reforms? I can tell you very clearly that I agree with you completely that it is not the fact that some Nigerians are now going to the net of poverty. And that is the reason for reform. In America, we’re creating reform.

More America will drive down into poverty line because that is a consequence of reform in the short term. In the long run, you have the benefit of people also coming out of the net of poverty, because poverty, they are not sitting there forever. They don’t have a permanency there. Now, in the case of this present administration and the Tinubu reform, don’t take Nigeria away from the global economy.

If the global economy’s financial outlook is growing at 3.2 per cent and Nigeria is growing at 3.5 per cent, do you think that Nigeria is doing badly? I’m a data science person. I don’t deal with rumours or narratives that are not correct. I deal with figures and empirical evidence.

I have a global outlook. I have regional outlook. I have Nigeria’s outlook for 2025. So, where did we go wrong? And then for the Tinubu government to be paying these debts down and then servicing it at 62 per cent, 68 per cent to GDP, are we doing badly?

On tax reforms, the governors have agreed but they’re insisting on a new VAT sharing formula…

Let me tell you; 18 per cent of Nigerians are the people on the tax net. Now, you have 72 per cent of Nigeria not on the tax net at all. So, you increase the number of people on the tax net, then you make more money.

Tinubu said he’s not doing that because of the 72 that are not on the tax net, a majority of them are poor people. We can’t bring them to the tax net again. That will create more problems for them.

If you look into your crystal ball, what do you see ahead of the 2027 elections?

Do you see an alignment against APC? 2027 is about performance. It is difficult to say that the government is not performing in the face of conflict.

Look at the tax, what I expect the Northern governors to do is not what they are doing because there was a case before the Supreme Court by the Lagos State government, saying that VAT is a sales tax therefore, the Supreme Court should order that they have the right to collect that tax.

If Lagos State wins that case, what happens? The whole states in the North will be affected, and they cannot change the judgement.

So, people should appreciate Tinubu because he is saying, let’s forget about that case of Lagos State, let’s look at this tax and harmonize all we need to have.

Finally, let me say this about your question on 2027. 2027 is already determined in the sense that it will be determined by the performance of the government. I don’t have regrets saying that.

As long as this administration is performing, 2027 is determined in my view. Legitimacy, which is acceptance, is based on legal and moral parameters.

The moral parameter is that the government is performing. What is Tinubu saying? I will take you away from financial danger, will give you hope, I will create a new life for you to become better.