…Urge him not to defect to APC, ADC

Geopolitical Survey International (GSI) has released the results of its political trends survey in Osun State for the month of July, with a specific focus on the consequences of the recent defection politics across the three senatorial districts.

The Survey results also specifically polled the effect of the entrance of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) into Osun politics as a third force alongside the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC).

According to a statement released by the lead consultant, Dr Adeyemo Adeyefa, the survey was conducted between July 1st to 20th with a total of 30,000 respondents, with 10,000 respondents per senatorial district.

Four questions were orally presented to the respondents as follows: “If the governorship election is to be held today in Osun, which party will you vote for?

“Does Governor Ademola Adeleke deserve to be re-elected next year? Will recent defections affect or influence your future voting choice?

“Should Governor Adeleke defect to another political party or stay with the PDP?”

The results of the analysis, as presented by the lead consultant, are as follows:

“71.5 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for PDP in the governorship election if elections were to be held today in Osun state.

“This was a major upward shift from the results of previous surveys, which put the PDP and the state governor within a 60 to 65 per cent favourability rating.

“15 per cent opted to vote APC, while 10 per cent said they will vote ADC. About 4.5 per cent of the voters were undecided.

“This result reflected a downward swing for the main opposition APC, which in previous results polled 20 to 25 per cent.

“Analysis on senatorial basis, however, showed that the number opting for a vote for the PDP is higher in Osun West and Osun Central than in Osun East.

“The three political parties appear neck to neck in their rating, especially within the Osun East senatorial district.

“For the second question, 72 per cent of the respondents said that Mr Adeleke deserves re-election.

“Another 14 per cent simply mentioned APC, while 10 per cent mentioned ADC. The remaining four per cent were undecided.

“The number of respondents who supported the Governor’s re-election is, however, at par across the three senatorial districts, which raises real differences between preference for PDP as a party and support for Mr Adeleke.

“85 per cent of respondents to the third question on the impact of defection in next year’s voting said it will have no impact on their voting choice.

“For the last question on the survey, 90 per cent of respondents said the governor should not defect to any political party and that he should stay with the PDP before and after the 2026 elections.

“The unusually high number of those who opposed his defection reflected the open opposition of the Osun state members of the APC to the Governor’s defection to the federal party”, the statement narrated.

Dr Adeyefa said analysis of collected data resulting from field operations has a three per cent error margin.

“We remain committed to fair polling practices. For the August survey results, we will invite stakeholders, our partners and the media for a press briefing”, Adeyefa concluded.