Sixth-generation mobile technology is expected to account for more than five billion connections worldwide by 2040, according to a new study by the Global System for Mobile Communications Association, the mobile industry’s global trade body. The transition, however, will be gradual; 4G and 5G are expected to underpin global connectivity for years to come.

The GSMA’s Vision 2040 report on spectrum needs during the peak 6G era of 2035–2040 projects that commercial deployment of 6G will begin around 2030. Despite the rapid growth forecast for 6G, the industry body said earlier generations will continue to play a major role.

“4G and 5G will remain essential, with around 2 billion 4G and 3 billion 5G connections still in use by 2040,” the report stated.

Designed to guide policymakers and regulators on long-term spectrum planning, the study shows that adoption of 6G will be uneven across regions. Advanced markets, including China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe, the Gulf states, Vietnam, and India, are expected to reach or exceed full penetration, while many low- and middle-income regions are likely to lag due to slower infrastructure investment and limited spectrum availability.

According to the GSMA, this uneven rollout means existing networks will remain critical for meeting connectivity needs, particularly in regions where the transition to newer technologies may take longer.

The report said future spectrum demand will be driven less by raw download speeds and more by emerging use cases enabled by 6G, such as artificial intelligence-driven services, immersive communications, and digital twins. These applications will require ultra-low latency of 10 milliseconds or less, as well as wider spectrum channels to reduce congestion and transmission delays.

Mobile traffic growth will also be shaped by changing user behaviour. The GSMA noted that about 10 per cent of mobile users currently generate between 60 and 70 per cent of total network traffic. By 2040, the report predicts that this level of consumption will become standard as younger, more digitally intensive generations age.

Geography is expected to further influence spectrum needs. An analysis of 10 countries found that roughly 83 per cent of mobile traffic occurs in urban areas, even though cities account for only about five per cent of total landmass. Traffic density in very dense urban locations is typically nine times higher than in other urban areas and nearly 700 times higher than in rural regions, heightening the risk of congestion without additional spectrum.

The GSMA said these pressures highlight the need for forward-looking spectrum policies as governments prepare for key global decisions at the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 (WRC-27), which is expected to shape the harmonisation of new spectrum bands to support mobile network evolution into the 2030s.

While 6G promises transformative capabilities, the industry body said a balanced approach will be required, with continued investment in 4G and 5G networks alongside preparations for next-generation technologies, warning that delays in spectrum allocation could lead to congestion in the world’s most densely populated areas.