The recent pronouncement by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) regarding the leadership crisis in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the crises in other political parties have cast some doubt on the credibility of the next elections. ONYEKACHI EZE writes that this might indicate conspiracy among ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and other government agencies to impose one-party state on the country.

Nigeria’s political atmosphere, at the moment has charged to a boiling point. This is however to be expected. Nigerians will be going to the polls early next year to elect their leaders for the next two years. But that notwithstanding, the fear of Nigeria becoming one party state seems to becoming a reality.

Last Wednesday, leaders of African Democratic Congress (ADC), one of the registered political parties in the country, staged a protest at the headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) against the derecognition of Senator David Mark-led leadership by the commission.

Among party leaders who joined the “Save our Democracy” protest, are ADC National Chairman, David Mark, former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former presidential candidate of the Labour Party Mr. Peter Obi, his New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) counterpart, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi. They called for resignation or sack of the INEC’s Chairman, Prof. Joah Amupitan, for partisanship.

INEC had in a statement by Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee, Mohammed Kudu Haruna, said the decision to delist ADC leadership from its portal and not to monitor its congresses, convention and meetings, was based on Court of Appeal judgement, which directed parties to the case by Nafiu Bala Gombe challenging Mark-led leadership, to maintain status quo ante bellum as at July 2, 2025.

ADC however, said the action of the commission is an overreach, and argued that its attempt to define the “status quo” by tracing the controversy to internal party developments in July 2025 is an administrative interpretation that INEC is not empowered to make. “That determination lies strictly within the jurisdiction of the courts, not the commission,” the party said in a statement by the National Publicity Secretary Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi.

It argued that “internal party processes, conducted in line with the party’s constitution and the Electoral Act, do not extinguish or prejudice pending judicial proceedings. “On the contrary, democratic continuity within a political party is presumed under the law unless expressly restrained by a competent court.

“For the Chairman of INEC to publicly assume that role, offering partisan constructions of legal outcomes in a manner that appears to favour a particular individual, amounts to a serious constitutional breach and an affront to the doctrine of separation of powers.” In a letter jointly signed by Mark and the National Secretary, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, which was submitted during the protest, ADC said the INEC’s Chairman partisanship undermine public trust in the electoral process and raised fears about the fairness of future elections.

“Your conduct, taken together with INEC’s earlier correspondence to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), reinforces the perception that the com- mission under your leadership has abandoned neutrality and has instead aligned itself with factional interests. This is not only improper; it is dangerous for the credibility of our electoral system,” ADC stated.

Factionalised opposition parties

Though Nigeria has about 20 political parties, almost all the parties except the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have been factionalised. The main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which ruled the country for 16 years, has become a shadow of itself.

The party has been factionalised between one led by Kabiru Tanimu Turaki, SAN and another by Abdulrahman Mohammed. At the moment, PDP has been weakened to field candidates in next year’s general elections. The Mohammed faction loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Nyesom Wike, has already ruled out the possibility of the party fielding presidential candidate in 2027.

Instead, it announced the adoption of President Bola Tinubu as its presidential candidate. PDP has lost almost all its governors except two. The Turaki-led faction has opened discussion with ADC with possiblity of forging alliance in next year’s general elections. The Labour Party which came third in 2023 presidential election, had also been embroiled in leadership crisis after the election.

Even when the Supreme Court on April 4, 2025, sacked Julius Abure and recognised Senator Esther Nenadi Usman led interim National Working Committee (NWC) as authentic leadership of the party, INEC refused to honour the judgement. The commission allowed the crisis to fester until the party is completely weakened, forcing Obi who turned the fortunes of the party around when he joined in 2022, to leave last December.

Except Abia State governor, Dr. Alex Otti, there is no politician of note still left in Labour Party. The NNPP is not better. The crisis in the party forced the only governor elected on its platform, Abba Yusuf, to defect to the APC. The final death knell was announced two weeks ago when Kwankwaso left and joined the ADC.

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is also factionalised between Dr. Sadiq Umar Abubakar Gombe and Alhaji Shehu Gabam. Gombe was recognised by the Federal High Court in January this year, but last month, the Court of Appeal returned Gabam as the National Chairman. Even the ADC which has become “sanctuary of displaced” politicians, have been infiltrated and factionalised.

The party which has attracted hordes of political heavy weights since it was adopted in July 2025, now has three factions one led by Senator David Mark, another by Nafiu Bala Gombe and the other by Kingsley Ogga. The ultimate plan is to ensure that there is no strong opposition political party in the country to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s reelection in 2027.

As if gloating over it, President Tinubu’s statement last that he had no hands in the sinking of the opposition parties, but was not surprised that politicians are jumping “a sinking ship” has been taken with mixed feelings by many Nigerians.

Undermined multi-party democracy

Two weeks ago, a coalition of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), in a statement, deplored, among other things, what they called the “shrinking civil space, compromised judiciary and erosion of a multi-party democracy…” The coalition made up of 52 organisations, said “Nigeria is on the brink of collapse.” They called on the government to “defend democracy from being hijacked; end the politicisation of institutions, establish political finance integrity mechanisms, ensure electoral reforms before 2027, and maintain internal party democracy.”

According to the group, there are attempts by the government to gag the opposition, conscript Nigeria into a one party state and undermine democracy. Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, Executive Director, Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), one of the 52 CSOs, said there are moves to undermine Nigeria’s multi-party democracy, and accused INEC of trying to exclude major opposition parties from participating in elections.

“Nigeria has already lost significant confidence in INEC’s ability to conduct free, fair and credible elections. Any attempt to sideline major opposition parties will only worsen the situation,” Rafsanjani warned. PDP had earlier raised alarm of plot by President Tinubu and the APC to turn Nigeria into a one-party totalitarian state.

The party in a communique after its National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in May last year, said this was evidenced by the desperate attempts by the ruling party “to stifle and annihilate opposition parties through open siege, threats and intimidation of opposition figures and institutions of democracy in Nigeria.” This plot, the party said, is borne out of “APC’s mortal fear of inevitable defeat in 2027 due to its dismal failure in government.”

Atiku, Obi kick

In a post on X after the ADC protest, Obi, said Nigerians must resist the suffocation of the nation’s “democracy by those who once claimed to have sacrificed to defend it, but are now doing everything possible to undermine it and silence opposition.” According to him, the event was not just an effort to protect the nation’s democracy but a moment of reflection on how far Nigeria have fallen as a nation. “History will not be kind to those who traded the struggle for democracy for the comfort of power.

We will not remain silent, we will not be intimidated, and we will not surrender the future of this nation. The will of the people must prevail stronger, louder, and impossible to suppress. We, members and leaders of the ADC and other well meaning Nigerians, lovers of democracy, are saying that our democracy must not be killed.

“We say no to a one-party system, and for that reason today we are calling on Nigerians who believe in unity, peace and the security of our country to join us as we defend democracy in our land,” Obi stated. Atiku also in a statement on X, said the protest was against the partisanship of the electoral umpire.

“Our patriotic stance is aimed at safeguarding our democracy and preventing the enthronement of a dictatorship,” he added. There is also allegation of state capture by the APC. All the institutions of government are believed to be working for the ruling party. PDP had alleged of systematic compromise of Nigeria’s key democratic institutions, including the National Assembly, the Judiciary, and electoral bodies.

The party said there is attempt to dismantle democratic checks and balances, silence opposition voices, and concentrate power in the hands of a few individuals. The trend of state capture, the party said, is evident in the alleged collusion between the executive arm and “rubber-stamp” National Assembly, as well as in the actions of certain compromised judicial officers who, it claims, now act in ways that erode public confidence in the rule of law.

“The National Assembly has increasingly failed to act as an independent arm of government, often rubber-stamping executive excesses rather than holding it accountable. Similarly, certain judicial rulings in recent times suggest deep compromise, raising fears about the erosion of judicial independence.” INEC is believed to be one of the institutions captured by the APC. The commission’s actions showed that it panders to the whims and caprices of the ruling party.

It’s interpretation of the Court of Appeal judgement on ADC leadership crisis was indication of external influence. Even security agencies have been compromised. Last week’s ADC protest succeeded because it took the authorities by surprise. The party leaders who assembled at Maitama Roundabout by 8 am, marched to INEC headquarters without obstruction by security personnel.

Even security personnel at commission’s headquarters, were taken unawares, unlike what was the case after INEC announced delisting of ADC’s leadership from its portal. The authorities had mobilised security personnel to guard the premises against likely reaction by the party. Organisers said they kept the protest secret so as not to be disrupted by the government.

Even the media were kept in dark until few hours to the commencement. Previous protests were meant with dire consequences. Security personnel were usually deployed to crush protest of any kind, including hunger protest and protest against growing insecurity in the country. Even the courts appeared to be complicit to the state capture.

They give non-declarative judgements in most of political cases brought before them, giving parties to the case to liberty to interpretations suit them. They give ambiguous declaration and not verdict, most of which are skewed against the opposition. The development got to a level during the week where a former US-diplomat urged global action against Nigeria over judges’ manipulation.

He also accused INEC of usurping the role of the judiciary. While observers stated that it is unfortunate that barely eight months to the 2027 presidential election, there is no strong opposition party in the country to challenge President Tinubu’s reelection., they urged opposition parties to explore both judicial processes and support of the global community to resist the government and its institutions in order to protect multi-party democracy.