These are indeed testy times in the political journey of Mr. Gregory Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State and the Presidential Candidate of the troubled Labour Party in the 2023 elections.

With the build up to the forthcoming 2027 general elections with the attendant alignments and re-alignment of political forces gathering momentum, the Agulu, Aniocha Local Government-born politician seems to be finding it increasingly difficult defining his path ahead of the epic battle.

Pundits are wondering if Obi who put up a stellar performance during the past polls will be able to re-enact it come 2027 considering his current seeming inability to find his footing in the emerging scenarios playing out in the nation’s political landscape.

Currently, the never-ending schism in the Labour Party with many gladiators laying claim to the soul of the platform upon which he emerged as the poster boy of the last election has made it imperative for him to reposition himself for another epic political battle.

This however has been a tough call for him to make with many people wondering if this indecision would not on the long run cost him so much politically owing to the frenetic pace with which events keep unfolding in the polity.

Obi’s political odyssey

The presidential hopeful was a business personality who was little known politically, until he was sworn in as the chief executive of Anambra State on 17 March 2006.

Prior to the assumption of office in succession to the former occupant the late Chief Chinwoke Mbadinuju, he waged many wars terminating at the Court of Appeal to rescue his mandate from Dr. Chris Nwabueze Ngige of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who was declared by the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as duly elected.

Obi who was elected on the platform of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) had barely settled down in office when members of the PDP dominated state House of Assembly impeached him on November 3, 2006, but he was returned to power through a judicial pronouncement on February 9, 2007 and continued his tenure until 2010. Yet again, INEC breached some relevant portions of the Constitution by conducting election into the office of the governor, returning Mr. Andy Uba as elected.

Again, Obi secured a judgement of the Supreme Court which affirmed that his tenure of office had not lapsed at the time INEC conducted the election, hence he should complete his four-year tenure.

He was re-elected for a second term which ended on March 7, 2014. He became the running mate to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the 2019 presidential poll on the platform of the PDP.

In the build up to the 2023 general elections, Obi was a member of PDP but eventually exited to the Labour Party on whose platform he eventually contested the poll.

Obi eventually placed third behind the eventual winner and incumbent, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Abubakar in that order, polling 6,101, 533.

2023 Presidential outcome and Obi’s new political status

Prior to the election whose outcome was disputed by those who lost, most political pundits as well as members of the ruling class had dismissed Obi as a neophyte who was incapable of making appreciable impact in the political scene.

To his traducers, the momentum built around his aspiration by his support group was a mere mirage akin to the noise of a headless horde of people groping in the political wilderness.

Obi’s many political traducers were of the opinion that the support base of the former Anambra helmsman was inorganic and by extension ineffectual.

To them (Obi’s traducers), his support base was consigned to the social media and that when push came to shove, his bid was not in anyway capable of making significant impact.

Many watchers and pundits wondered however why a candidate without any known or verifiable political structure that had been erected over time could win the election but they were proven wrong considering the outcome of the keenly contested election, which saw the hitherto moribund party making appreciable showing in many places across the country that were in the firm grip of the so-called established political parties.

It would be recalled that he (Obi) defeated President Tinubu in Lagos. He also defeated the then Vice Presidential candidate of the PDP, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, in Delta State in the said election.

Not only that, the candidates of the Labour Party defeated outgoing governors of Plateau and Benue to clinch the seats of their respective senatorial zones. Former governors Samuel Ortom and Simeon Lalong lost their elections to the candidates sponsored by the Labour Party.

The party also won the states alongside others in the presidential poll just as it also secured Abia State but narrowly lost Enugu to the PDP.

In the end, the outcome of the 2023 general elections significantly boosted the status of the former governor as a force to be reckoned with in the nation’s political firmament with many expressing confidence in the possibility of him re-enacting the feat and possibly winning the next election by defeating the incumbent.

Post-election litigation and confidence building

The Labour Party’s immediate response to the declaration of President Tinubu as the winner generated some form of uproar within the ranks of the Obidient Movement with many members insisting that their principal indeed won the poll.

As to be expected, the Labour Party and Obi went all the way to the Supreme Court to prove their point but unfortunately lost, prompting the need to re-strategise for future polls.

Flowing from the feedbacks got in the aftermath of the poll, Obi has been making some charm offensive to some areas of the Nigeria that showed some kind of hostility or coldness to his bid.

He has carried out a lot of visits to the Northern parts of the country with a view to winning their confidence and trust. He has continued to utilise whatever platform that presented itself to him to further warm up to them as a valued partner.

While those were going on, the Labour Party once again relapsed into another round of crisis with many of the chieftains laying claim to the soul of the party as the custodian of authority.

A series of outcomes of judicial interventions to resolve the crisis have not helped in dousing tension with feuding gladiators interpreting the outcome in manners that suited their wimps and caprices.

The two major combatants, Julius Abure and a former Minister for Women Affairs, Senator Nenadi Usman, are currently at the heart of the internecine crisis rocking the party with many speculating that there is no end in sight to the schism.

This has however prompted him to seek political shelter elsewhere, hence his continued association with the new coalition party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), with the likes of Abubakar, the immediate past governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and others.

ADC: The alternative, the challenges

Obi joined other prominent opposition politicians at the popular Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja to unveil the ADC as the preferred platform to the general public in an elaborate media conference.

Apart from Abubakar, el-Rufai and Amaechi, other key political figures at the venue included Senator Dino Melaye; a former Minister of Youth and Sports, Solomon Dalung; publisher and PDP chieftain, Dele Momodu; Senators Gabriel Suswam and Ireti Kingibe of the Labour Party; and a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha.

Those that attended the much publicised event cut across various political platforms such as the PDP, Labour Party, Social Democratic Party and other political interests.

A former Senate President, David Mark, was appointed the interim chairman while a former Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola bagged the post of acting national secretary.

Hardly had the euphoria that heralded the event died down than reports filtered in to suggest that many of the gladiators including Obi have started the jostle for the Presidential ticket of the party.

One of those that have been touted included Obi who is working to use the platform to re-enact the 2023 political feat with the desire to go a notch further by clinching the Presidency come 2027.

Those in the know stated that the possibility of a repeat of the 2023 scenario in next election keeps becoming a mirage by the day owing to Obi’s seeming indecision with regards to his approach for making that happen with many observers maintaining that with the spate of activities within the polity and the former Anambra State governor’s inability to keep pace, “If care is not taken, he might lose the political gain he got in 2023.”

Missteps and indecisions

Many members of the Obidient Movement who spoke with Saturday Telegraph recently have expressed worries with regards to the inability of their principal to properly marshal and articulate a road map towards 2027.

“As we speak, I can tell you that we don’t which party we are but what is going for us is that we are all still members of the Obidient Movement. Our party, the Labour Party, is factionalised. We have not fully integrated into the ADC, which is the coalition vehicle,” says Seyi Olanrewaju, a member of the movement in a chat with our correspondent recently.

According to him, “Our predicament is even becoming dire by the day considering the fact that we are being wooed by the PDP to come over and pick their ticket for the Presidency. I hope we don’t remain politically stranded at the end of the day.”

Though many thought Obi had reached his final stop with his open association with the ADC during the unveiling of the party, sources in the know stated that the relationship became sour when it was becoming apparent that he (Obi) was not going to be given the opportunity to fly the flag of the party without going through primaries.

The Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Dr. Yunusa Tanko, in a recent telephone chat hinted that the group was open for negotiation with any political platform ahead of the poll.

“Well, you know, the gold fish has no hiding place and so when people are saying that they are reaching out to us, we take it in stride, but we are just focused on selling the candidature of Peter Obi, and we see him as a unifier, and that’s what we will maintain.

“And so any platform that wants to engage us, we are ready, if it’s just for the good of Nigeria,” Tanko told our correspondent.

As political activities continue to move in frenetic pace, political pundits are also watching with keen interest, the next possible move of Obi and how the movements will erode or enhance his political capital.