FELIX NWANERI writes on the challenges facing promoters of the opposition coalition despite the euphoria over their recent adoption of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the platform through which they intend to unseat the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 presidential election

Despite multi-party system in place in most African nations, transfer of power between rival parties has been rare. Control of state institutions by siting presidents and its attendant flow of patronage has continued to generate a strong incumbency bias, which explains why several countries have witnessed elections without change.

While records show that only a handful of sub-Saharan Africa leaders lost re-election bids to candidates of opposition political parties during the post-colonial era, there is no doubt that the incumbency factor is rapidly waning in the continent and the tempo even seems to have increased since after the historic defeat of Goodluck Jonathan by Muhammadu Buhari in Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election.

The Nigerian experience, which opened a new chapter in the country’s political history, being the first time the opposition would defeat a ruling party in a presidential election, perhaps, reinforced the belief that prospects for opposition’s success are not conditioned by whether or not the incumbent stands for re-election.

For instance, two sitting African presidents – Gambia’s long-term ruler, Yahyah Jammeh and Ghana’s John Mahama – were unseated in quick succession by the opposition immediately after the Nigerian experience of 2015.

Whereas the trend continued after that, the year, 2024, was remarkable as it saw five transfers of power in Africa – Ghana, Botswana, Senegal, Mauritius, Senegal and the selfdeclared republic of Somaliland. Even in cases where the incumbents did not lose, their reputation and political control was severely dented.

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) retained power but only after a bruising campaign that saw it fall below 50 per cent of the votes in a national election for the first time since the end of white-minority rule in 1994.

This forced President Cyril Ramaphosa to enter into a coalition government, giving up 12 cabinet posts to other parties, including powerful positions such as Home Affairs. The only exceptions were countries like Chad and Rwanda, where elections were seen as neither free nor fair or nations where the ruling parties were accused by the opposition of resorting to a combination of rigging and repression to avert defeat.

In Botswana, Mauritius and Senegal, where citizens concern over corruption and abuse of power eroded government credibility, opposition leaders were able to play on popular anger at nepotism, economic mismanagement and the failure of leaders to uphold the rule of law to expand their support base.

The perception that governments were mishandling the economy was particularly important because many people experienced a tough year financially as high cost of living for millions of citizens, increased their frustration with the status quo.

Besides economic hardship, defeats of some of Africa’s incumbents in 2024 was informed by youth-led protests. However, what was perhaps more distinctive about transfers of power in Africa last year was the way opposition parties learnt from the past.

ADC has no preferred or favourite presidential aspirant but has set out to first put out a platform that would be attractive and acceptable to majority of Nigerians

In some cases, such as Mauritius, the opposition developed new ways of protecting votes, which includes ensuring that every stage of the electoral process was carefully watched. In other countries, it meant forging new coalitions to present the electorate with a united front.

In Botswana, for example, three opposition parties and a number of independent candidates came together under the banner of the Umbrella for Democratic Change to comprehensively out-mobilise the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).

It is against these backdrops that some analysts are of the view that it will not be a tea party for Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which will go to the polls in 2027 amidst struggle by President Bola Tinubu’s government to overcome rising public anger over the state of the economy and insecurity.

Nigeria and the ADC challenge

Nigeria’s next general election is about 18 months away but some leaders of the opposition political parties, recently, announced the formation of a coalition under the aegis of African Democratic Congress (ADC) through which they intend to wrestle power from the ruling party.

Adoption of the ADC by proponents of the coalition, was after several back-andforth movements, including moves that initially linked them with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and application for registration of a new political party – All Democratic Alliance (ADA).

However, following adoption of the ADC by the opposition leaders, the Raph Nwosu-led National Working Committee (NWC) voluntarily resigned to make way for the emergence of David Mark (a former Senate president) and Rauf Aregbesola (a former governor of Oyo State) as interim national chairman and interim national secretary, respectively.

Opposition leaders in the coalition include a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) in 2023 election, Peter Obi; a former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, ex-Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai; former Speaker of the House of Representatives and immediate past governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal and a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal.

Others are former Governors Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Jubrilla Bindow (Adamawa), Emeka Ihedioha (Imo), Oserheimen Osunbor (Edo), Gabriel Suswam (Benue), Idris Wada (Kogi) and Celestine Omehia (Rivers); ex-Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami; ex Minister of Sports, Solomon Dalung; 2023 vice-presidential candidate of LP, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed; former National Chairman of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Uche Secondus; former Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sadique Baba Abubakar (rtd) and General Tunde Ogbeha (rtd). Also on the list are Senators Enyinnaya Abaribe, Victor Umeh, Ishaku Abbo, Dino Melaye, Aishatu Binani, Ireti Kingibe and Lee Maeba; former deputy governors of Kogi and Ondo states, Simon Achuba and Agboola Ajayi; a former Inspector General of Police, MD Abubakar; Ovation publisher, Dele Momodu; former presidential adviser, Kashim Imam and ex-presidential aide, Ms Lauretta Onochie.

Others are former members of the APC (National Working Committee (NWC). They are John Odigie-Oyegun (national chairman) Bolaji Abdullahi (national publicity secretary), James Akpanudoedehe (national secretary) and Salihu Lukman (national vice chairman, North-West) as well as activist, Aisha Yesufu.

Beyond alliance

While it has been euphoria in the opposition’s camp given the hurdles leaders of the coalition had to scale before arriving at the choice of ADC, analysts are of the opinion that there are still many more impediments they must wade through if their dream of defeating the ruling APC is to materialise.

This belief is majorly predicated on ambitions of the coalition’s leaders, which analysts say, is likely to make it difficult for them to close ranks and the power sharing arrangement between the North and South as well as the legal battle that has already ensued over claim by some chieftains of the ADC that the party was forcefully taken over by the coalition leaders.

To most analysts, the proposed alliance is likely to hit the rocks if its arrowheads are merely looking for a platform to actualise their individual political ambitions. This assumption is predicated on the belief that Atiku, Obi and Amaechi, among others, are bent on contesting the 2027 presidential election, and that none of them is likely to step down for the other.

Another knotty issue is how leaders of the coalition will resolve the zoning issue as regards where their presidential candidate will come from as well as how they will convince the leadership of the various opposition parties that have earlier indicated interest to be part of the movement to collapse their respective structures into the ADC.

Atiku’s mind game

The former vice president (1999- 2007) has never pretended about his ambition to occupy the country’s number one position. He had after his retirement from the Customs Service in 1989, ventured into business and politics and contested the governorship in the then Gongola State (now Adamawa and Taraba states) in 1991, but was not successful.

In 1983, Atiku made an unsuccessful bid for the presidency after placing third behind Chief Moshood Abiola and Babagana Kingibe in the presidential primary election of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He made a breakthrough in politics in 1998, when he was elected as governor of Adamawa State.

He, however, selected by the PDP presidential candidate, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, as running mate before his inauguration. Atiku and Obasanjo went on to win the presidential election in February 1999 but after his first term as vice-president, some governors elected on the platform of the then ruling PDP came up with a plot to deny Obasanjo a second term.

The plan was to hand Atiku the party’s presidential ticket in the 2003 general election but he opted for a joint a ticket with his principal. The aftermath of the botched plot pitted Atiku and Obasanjo and the cold war that ensued after their inauguration, degenerated to a bitter political battle by 2006, when Atiku declared ambition to succeed his principal.

Obasanjo’s insistence that Atiku will not succeed him forced the then vice-president to leave the PDP for the Action Congress (AC), which handed him its presidential ticket. This sparked another round of power-play that led to his exclusion from the final list of the 24 candidates published by the Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC] for the 2007 presidential election.

The electoral commission cited Atiku’s indictment for corruption as reason for the omission but he approached the court to challenge his exclusion. The matter got to the Supreme Court, which in a unanimous decision, ruled that INEC had no power to disqualify any candidate for an election.

The judgement paved the way for Atiku to contest the election, but he came a distant third. The poll was won by the candidate of the PDP, late President Umaru Yar’Adua Atiku returned to the PDP in 2009 and was granted a waiver by the party’s national leadership, which paved the way for him to contest the 2011 PDP presidential primary election.

He was selected by the Northern Elders Political Leaders Forum (NPEF) led by a one-time Minister of Finance, Mallam Adamu Ciroma, as the region’s consensus candidate but he was floored by then Acting President, Goodluck Jonathan, who went ahead to win the election.

The 2011 defeat did not deter Atiku as he surfaced again in 2014 for the 2015 presidency. He had before then made good his threat of dumping the PDP over what he described as failure of the party’s leadership to return it to the vision of its founding fathers with his defection to the then opposition APC.

Many had thought then that Atiku would be the candidate to beat in the APC presidential primary election given his financial strength and political structure, he lost the ticket to a former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari, who went ahead to win the election.

Again, Buhari’s second term bid, forced Atiku to return to the PDP ahead of the 2019 elections, and as expected, he defeated 11 other aspirants to pick the party’s ticket. The former vice-president, however, lost the election by over a million votes. Atiku’s loss of the 2019 presidential election did not deter him in his bid to lead Africa’s most populous nation.

He threw his hat to the ring again immediately INEC blew the whistle for the 2023 general election. What however ensued over the former vice president’s declaration for the PDP’s ticket was infighting over zoning. As expected, the May 28, 2022, presidential primary election of the party was characterised by high level politicking that pitted the aspirants against each other.

For anybody to face a Tinubu, that person has to come from the opposite direction. Which means it must be someone who can get the North to coalesce behind him

The contest was however won by Atiku, who polled 371 votes to defeat his major challenger and the then governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, who garnered 237 votes. The PDP’s inability to resolve the pre and post-presidential primary election crisis contributed to Atiku’s loss of the presidential poll.

He polled 6.9 million votes to place second to his APC counterpart, Tinubu, who had 8.7 million votes, while Peter Obi, who left PDP at the eve of its presidential primary election for Labour Party (LP), garnered 6.1 million votes to place third. The belief was that Atiku would quit politics after his bid to upturn Tinubu’s election was dashed by the Supreme Court, but he vowed to fight on.

He later called on the opposition political parties to come together and create a more formidable front that will salvage Nigeria’s democracy from sliding into a one-party state. Perhaps, it is against this backdrop that some political analysts posited that the former vice president kickstarted his 2027 presidential bid immediately after the Supreme Court judgement.

However, while permutations continue to dominate the political space ahead of the election, Atiku has opted not to discuss his plans in public although his body language and ongoing mobilization by his camp show that he will throw his hat to the ring again. Interestingly, Atiku’s unannounced bid has continued to face opposition in most political quarters, particularly on account of his age and the power sharing arrangement between the North and South.

The former vice president is 78 and would be 80 by 2027. It is against this backdrop that some stakeholders are of the view hat he should step aside and support a younger person. This mind game, notwithstanding, Atiku’s camp is confident that he will pick the coalition’s ticket if he vies for it.

A former presidential aspirant on the platform of the PDP, Dele Momodu, who has repeatedly pushed back at critics of Atiku contesting the 2027 presidential election, wondered why they are scared of his ambition. Momodu insists that only God and destiny will determine whether Atiku will achieve his presidential ambition come 2027 or not.

He added that those criticising Atiku’s presidential ambition on the basis of age did not support young candidates during the 2023 elections. Citing Joe Biden and Donald Trump as examples of politicians who became presidents at an advanced age, he said: “Age cannot be an automatic qualification or disqualification in politics. It is up to God and destiny.

If Atiku decides to run, good luck to him. If he doesn’t want to run, no problem. But nobody should muzzle him.” On whether Atiku would be a threat to President Tinubu’s re-election bid, Momodu said: “I’m sure they (the critics) believe so. I know those who believe that he is the only one right now. Atiku will be a threat if he is able to galvanise a mega political party.

He will be a threat. The mood of the nation is overwhelmingly opposed to the current leader.” Momodu also believes that no southern candidate can take on Tinubu. “You have to be realistic. It’s a game of numbers and it’s also a game of your network.

There’s no one in Nigeria today as experienced, as exposed, as networked as Atiku from 1993, when he stepped down for Chief MKO Abiola in Jos. “So, when people mention him, it is based even on what has happened elsewhere. Why do you think the Republicans in America will risk a Donald Trump, a man who already lost the election, who already got indicted on many felonies? It is because they need him.

“For anybody to face a Tinubu, that person has to come from the opposite direction. Which means it must be someone who can get the North to coalesce behind him. So, I pray that the coalition will be able to achieve that. I don’t know if they will, but I’m sure they are working on that.

“Then it must be someone who has a substantial network in the South. There is no other person I can see who has that kind of network behind him. So, that’s why everybody is talking about Atiku. And those who are trying to de-market him; the same people are not discouraging Tinubu.”

Kenneth Okonkwo, the 2023 campaign spokesperson for Peter Obi, who also believes that ADC must present a northern candidate if it intends to defeat Tinubu, declared that any attempt to field a southern candidate will guarantee the President’s re-election.

Warning that the political arithmetic of 2027 favours the incumbent unless the opposition adopts a pragmatic and strategic approach, Okonkwo said: “My strategy this time around is that I am going to support a northerner in 2027. The person must be qualified. And if he has experience in the presidency, it is an added advantage.

When he pairs with someone from the South, that will push him through.” While the debate on whether Atiku should quit the political stage ahead of the 2027 elections rages, whatever choice he will make is not likely to be informed by the wishes of his critics as it will amount to succumbing to blackmail.

Obi’s camp insists on ticket

For Obi, who was running mate to Atiku in the 2019 presidential election, his first attempt at the presidency was in 2023. The former governor of Anambra State was among the frontrunners for the PDP presidential ticket but he shocked many, when he announced his withdrawal from the contest and resignation from the party few days to the primary election.

He later opted for Labour Party (LP) and emerged as its candidate. This development, not only turned the party to a movement, but altered the political calculation for the 2023 presidential election, and for the first time since 1999, Nigerians witnessed a three-horse presidential contest.

Although Obi was unable to win the election, the massive mobilization by his supporters, mostly youths under the aegis of Obidient Movement and other Nigerians who wanted a break from the past, shook the political landscape.

Obi polled 6.1 million votes, winning in 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. Obi’s influence also contributed to the appreciable number of legislative seats LP won across the country as well as the governorship position in Abia State.

There is no doubt that the former governor’s performance in the 2023 elections informed the view expressed by some political stakeholders, including members of the ruling APC that he is a candidate for the future given that age is still on his side.

He is 63. While Obi had during the buildup to the formation of the coalition, maintained that he is not against the idea of the opposition parties coming together to challenge the APC, he however insisted that he will never be part of any alliance solely focused on seizing power without prioritising the welfare of citizens.

Apparently, his position then informed the belief that he would not be part of the coalition, but politics being a game in which nothing is foreclosed, Obi’s decision to team up with the other opposition leaders has not only buoyed the coalition but unsettled some camps within the fold.

His insistence on contesting the 2027 presidential election is viewed as a threat to Atiku’s ambition and there is no doubt that his success or otherwise at the ADC’s presidential primary would be one of the major factors to determine how far the coalition can go in the elections. An indication to this is the insistence by Obi’s camp that it is either the presidential ticket or no deal.

The belief among Obididents, Obi’s main supporters, is that some people within the coalition are only out to ride on the former governor’s back to power like many did in the 2023 elections even when they do no share in his vision of “a New Nigeria.” This view is equally held by some members of the ruling party although they have insisted that the opposition cannot defeat Tinubu.

For instance, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, in his thought on the coalition, suggested that the its leadership aims to leverage Obi’s voter base without offering him the presidential ticket. Keyamo, who warned that excluding Obi from the ticket could alienate his supporters, especially given his strong performance in the South-East and South-South geopolitical in the last election; said: “The person who the old, cunning guards want to take for a ride in all of this is Obi.

They want his votes, but don’t want to give him their presidential ticket, because this is Atiku’s show simpliciter.” He added: “That is why David Mark is the interim chairman. Those who know politics know what I am saying. But if you do not give Obi the presidential ticket, you lose his supporters.”

While those urging Obi to pair with the former vice president are of the view that such arrangement is likely to be supported by most voters in the North, Obi on his part, has declared his readiness to serve a single four-year term if elected, reaffirming his commitment to the zoning arrangement that rotates power between Nigeria’s northern and southern regions.

His words: “If you take the arrangement which is, understandably, what you can call an unwritten agreement that power would go South and North, and if that arrangement is to be followed strictly, you would see that anybody, not just me, who happens to come from the South as president in 2027, must be ready to leave on May 28 not 29, 2031.

“I campaigned for zoning. I championed zoning in Anambra State. That is one of the reasons today some people feel we must deal with this man. I insisted on it, I maintained it and I followed it to the last letter, and till today, I still follow it religiously.”

Obi’s running mate in the 2023 election, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, who also expressed opposition to any arrangement that will see the former Anambra governor pairing Atiku as vice presidential candidate, said: “I think the position of vice president is very big anyway because I wanted to be one, and I was rigged out, but I think Obi should not be a vice president having gotten a disputed 10 million votes in 2023.

It is all about a narrative that was sold out to Nigeria very quickly that to defeat Tinubu, it has to be a coalition. However, founder and pioneer National Chairman of APGA, Chief Chekwas Okorie, who expressed optimism that Obi will contest the 2027 presidential election, however told New Telegraph that he (Obi) “really needs to reach out beyond his rabblerousing Obidient group to stand a chance.”

His words: “The coalition looks like a very portent one that may turn out to be a very formidable challenge to President Tinubu come 2027 beyond the way those around him are reacting to it because I know that those behind the coalition are plotting to divide Southern Nigeria by bringing a candidate, who will do just four years in order to allow the region to complete its eight years in line with the rotation agreement, so that power can go back to the North in 2031.

“The trump card in this calculation is Obi and the belief of the arrowheads of the plot is that he unlike President Goodluck Jonathan, will not renege on any agreement he is likely to enter with the North given his antecedent.

“While Jonathan is said to have reneged on the agreement that he will complete Umar Yar’Adua’s first term, so that the North will replace him in 2011, promoters of the coalition believe that there is no reason to doubt Obi. So, Atiku is likely to step down for Obi. Once that is done, 2027 will be a done deal.

“So, expect a serious realignment of political forces in the days ahead. You will see Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) elements in the APC and supporters of former President Buhari leaving the ruling party. And, mark my words, APC will wake up to reality very soon.

“Unfortunately, those around the President are busy attracting more political opponents for him rather than supporters. They are not even looking at the numbers, which show that the North-West holds the ace given that the zone delivered bulk of the votes for Tinubu in 2023.

Those behind the coalition are plotting to divide Southern Nigeria by bringing a candidate, who will do just four years in order to allow the region to complete its eight years… so that power can go back to the North in 2031

“I am not saying that they will lose in 2027, but Tinubu and his men must return to the political drawing board to take a look at how they will survive because it is not going to be easy the way they are making it to look like as the 2027 presidency is going to be an epic democratic contest in Nigeria’s history.”

Amaechi joins the fray

Amaechi, who has also declared his 2027 presidential ambition, equally promised to serve only one term if elected in adherence to the power rotation agreement between the North and South. “For now, the way Nigeria is, you must stick to that unwritten agreement that says eight years for the South and eight years for the North,” he said.

The immediate Minister of Transportation and ex-governor of Rivers State, who trailed Tinubu in the 2023 APC presidential primary election, stressed the need for competence, character, and credibility over ethnicity, noted that the South has capable leaders who can deliver effective governance.

The zoning conundrum

While the position of most political stakeholders is that it would be morally wrong for a northerner, whether of ADC or another opposition party’s extraction to succeed Tinubu after North’s eight years in power through Muhammadu Buhari (the immediate past president), there is no doubt that leaders of the coalition are much disposed to allowing aspirants from all parts of the country vie for its presidential ticket.

The present democratic dispensation (Fourth Republic) would be 26 years old by 2027 and the power rotation arrangement, though not constitutional, has seen the South had the presidency for 15 years through Olusegun Obasanjo (South-West, 1999-2007) Goodluck Jonathan (South-South, 2010- 2015) and Tinubu (2023 to date).

However, by 2027, when Tinubu’s first four years term will elapse, it would be 16 years for the South. For the North, the region has been in power for 10 years through Buhari (2015-2023) and Umaru Yar’Adua, who succeeded Obasanjo in 2007, but passed on May 5, 2010, barely three years in office.

Though the South has a five-year advantage over the North but would be seven years by 2027, most Nigerians believe that power shift to the North after the next general election, will negate rotational agreement. This conviction is despite the clamour by some northern political leaders for their region to return to power in 2027.

Their quest is based on what they termed “need for the region to be at par with the South.” Recall that some northern political have even called for abandonment of the zoning arrangement, not only for the Office of President, but for other political offices as currently obtainable in the country.

However, most political leaders in the South have consistently maintained that canvassing an end to rotational presidency at this point in Nigeria’s history would not be in the interest of the country. According to them, Nigeria’s unity is presently under threat, so abolishing zoning might lead to crisis, which may aggravate the issues on ground.

While many are of the view that the coalition’s bid to unseat Tinubu will only gain traction if a southerner picks the ADC presidential ticket, and perhaps, completes South’s tenure by serving only four years, there are those who believe that one-term presidency proposal would not be sellable to northerners.

A former chairman of the InterParty Advisory Council (IPAC), Yabagi Sani, who belongs to this political school, said the North views power rotation as a matter of balance, not sentiment, and would question why power should remain in the South after President Tinubu.

His words: “Obi can say he’ll do one term, but northerners will ask: After Tinubu, why should power stay in the South?” Further dismissing the idea as unconvincing to northern stakeholders, who still place value on the informal North-South power rotation agreement, Sani said:

“The principle of eight years North and eight years South still holds. With Tinubu likely seeking re-election, Obi’s offer appears to be a shortcut that won’t sit well in the North.” He also questioned Obi’s ability to keep such a promise, citing past leaders who reneged on reformist pledges once in power.

“We’ve seen it before. People come in shouting reform and later try to alter the constitution to extend their stay. Obi is no saint; he’s not from another planet,” he said. Sani argued that the realities of incumbency, state capture, and political pressure make it easy to abandon promises. “So many people won’t take Obi’s one-term talk seriously,” he maintained.

Mark rules out preferred aspirant

While it is too early for anyone to predict where the pendulum is likely to swing regarding the presidential ticket of the coalition, the ADC interim National Chairman, Mark, who spoke on the issue, said there is no preferred aspirant. He rather averred that the coalition’s focus is to build a party that will be well accepted by Nigerians. “

The ADC has no preferred or favourite presidential aspirant but has set out to first put out a platform that would be attractive and acceptable to majority of Nigerians.”

Addressing stakeholders of the Kogi State chapter of the ADC at a meeting in Abuja, last week. Mark, who promised to be fair to all, noted that all members of the party are “equal stakeholders, equal joiners and equal owners.” He added:

“We are doing this because we do not want this great ship called Nigeria to sink because if we do not rise up now, they will sink all of us.

“I don’t own this party more than any of our members and I urge all members to prepare to show Nigerians that ADC is a different party; a different party that is ready to properly run democracy in our country.

All Nigerians must come together and take ownership of the ADC.” The former Senate president urged members of ADC to put their differences aside and work as a team. “We must bond together to build the party before we can talk of ambitions,” he said.