FELIX NWANERI writes on the recent defection of a former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which has activated serious politicking ahead of the 2027 presidential election
The build-up to the 2027 presidential election is gathering momentum despite the fact that none of the personalities touted to be interested in the race has made any public declaration concerning their respective ambitions.
Rather, some of them have been testing the political waters with what many describe as the poster game and politics of endorsement aimed at feeling the pulse of the people.
Among those, whose posters for the 2027 presidential election have so far surfaced on the streets of major cities and the social media include President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; ex-governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai; the 2023 presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi and former President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki.
Supporters and groups loyal to of some other political bigwigs, on their part, have returned to the game they know how to play well – politics of endorsement – as well as criss-crossing the length and breadth of Nigeria, consulting some political stakeholders.
While these moves do not contravene section 99 (1) of the Electoral Act 2010, as amended, which states that “campaigning in public by every political party shall commence 90 days before polling day and end 24 hours prior to that day,” ongoing alignment and re-alignment of political forces by notable politicians, many believe, speak volume of the battle ahead.
One of such re-alignment of political forces, is last week’s defection of El-Rufai from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The former governor, in a statement that announced his resignation from the APC that he was one of its founding members, not only expressed his deep disappointment with the leadership of the party, but accused it of abandoning the progressive ideals on which the party was founded.
He revealed that, for the past two years, he had privately and publicly raised concerns about the party’s direction, but found no willingness among its leaders to address the growing issues.
The statement titled: “Onwards to the Future,” read in part: “It had been my hope since 2013 that my personal values and that of the APC will continue to align up to the time I choose to retire from politics.
“Developments in the last two years confirm that there is no desire on the part of those who currently control and run the APC to acknowledge, much less address, the unhealthy situation of the party.
What pains me is that the government we supported and had confidence that it would do well because we saw what Tinubu did in Lagos despite his challenges has failed
“On my part, I have raised concerns in private and, more recently, in public regarding the capricious trajectory of the party. Therefore, at this point in my political journey, I have come to the conclusion that I must seek another political platform for the pursuit of the progressive values I cherish.
“I have diligently served the APC and made my contributions to its viability as a political platform, but I recognise that the party has since strayed and left me stuck in the vision of its well-meaning founding fathers and mothers. “As a loyal party man, I worked to help secure the APC’s election victories in 2015, 2019 and 2023.
I was one of the many governors elected on the party’s platform in 2015 and 2019 that stood for certain democratic and progressive principles to advance nation-building.
“Today, 10th March 2025, I have submitted a letter resigning my membership of the APC to my ward in Kaduna, effective immediately. Prior to this step, I had concluded consultations with my mentors, colleagues and loyalists across the country about the future.
I have now decided to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and adopt it as the platform for our future political engagements and activities.
A defection foretold
While there is no doubt that ElRufai was among prominent Northern political figures, who insisted that the APC presidential ticket be given to a Southerner in line with Nigeria’s unwritten power rotation principle at the completion of President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure in 2023, the way he was treated afterwards set the stage for what played out last week.
The former Kaduna State governor supported Tinubu during the APC presidential primary election as well as well as the main election and was “rewarded” with a ministerial nomination but he failed to scale Senate screening on the ground of a security report by the Department of State Services (DSS).
Additionally, El-Rufai’s relationship with his successor in Kaduna, Uba Sani, whom he helped to power, turned sour, when state House of Assembly launched an investigation into alleged corruption during his eight years in office, an allegation he denied.
The failed ministerial bid and the battle with his successor, perhaps, explained why El-Rufai opted for a low political profile and staying-off activities of the APC until some media reports started linking to different political alliances ahead of the 2027 general election. Campaign posters that suggested his 2027 presidential bid with the President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, as well, flooded the streets of Kaduna in June last year.
This was followed by warning of a possible upset in the 2027 elections by one of his sons (Bashir). The younger e-Rufai, in post on his X handle, said an upset could happen in the 2027 general election without any consequences because nobody is too big to be voted out of office by the people.
He urged Nigerians to forget about intimidations from some quarters and be patient, declaring: “Nobody is too big to be elected out of office by the people. It will happen and wallahi nothing will happen. So, forget all these intimidations flying up and down. Let us be patient. Even the IMF & World Bank no go save una that time.”
He further wrote: “Political strategist, that one na for Lagos. I didn’t call names o, but due to their guilt, they already know who is being spoken about. Wallahi, none of you will force anyone to support this utter failure of governance disguised as a useless, dangerous ethnocentric political strategy.”
Akpabio, however, denied any involvement in the circulation of posters that suggest a political alliance with El-Rufai for the 2027 presidential election. In a statement by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Eseme Eyiboh, the Senate president described the development as the “handiwork of mischief makers.”
Eyiboh added that Akpabio does not have any intention to contest for president in 2027, adding that any claim that his principal is nursing any ambition of a joint presidential ticket with El-Rufai is “spurious and mischievous.”
2027 card
At the moment, it is not clear whether El-Rufai will contest the 2027 presidential election or not, but one thing that is certain for now is that he is bent on frustrating Tinubu’s re-election bid.
The former Kaduna governor had before his resignation from the APC, expressed reservations over some policies of the present administration, with a declaration that he was not sure if he would support the re-election of the President in 2027. Speaking during an appearance on Prime Time on ARISE Television, he said: “I don’t know if I will support Tinubu in 2027.
I will evaluate the situation at the time, and I will consult widely. When I supported President Tinubu before the primaries, it was a decision that the leaders of APC took in Kaduna. Who do we support? We succeeded in ensuring that power goes to the South, and we know that all the northern candidates will go nowhere, Yahaya Bello, Ahmed Lawan, we knew.
“But among the southerners, who do we support, they know those that are my friends. Tinubu was not my friend. I was never close to him. But the consensus of the APC in Kaduna was that we should support Tinubu because he is the one that is more likely to win. Politicians make these calculations. In 2027, I’m going to consult the same people.
We are going to take the same decision, which candidate to support and in which party.” Asked if he will support a Southern candidate in 2027, ElRufai said he can’t answer the question because he was no longer a governor. “Now I’m a private citizen. I’m not sure I would be in the APC 2027, so I cannot answer that question…
Now in 2027, I will not be a governor, so I will not have the sort of clout that I had in 2023.” He further said that he agreed with those accusing Tinubu of making imbalanced appointments but pointed out that it would be very wrong to accuse the whole of South West for the misdeeds of Tinubu, saying the appointment he has made didn’t even spread across the state of the region.
According to him, the President is only busy appointing “his boys.” Already, El-Rufai, in his bid to unseat Tinubu and the APC, has urged key opposition figures to join the SDP. In an interview with BBC Hausa, the former governor said: “My wishes and prayers are Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola, all opposition leaders to come and join SDP, not to do a merger or to register a new political party.
“What pains me is that the government we supported and had confidence in would do well because we saw what Tinubu did in Lagos despite his challenges. We all know about his issues in Chicago, but we thought if he could replicate his work in Lagos for Nigeria, let’s support him.
However, he has failed.” El-Rufai clarified that his presidential political ambition in 2027, will depend on the party and the will of the people. “It is not for me to decide; it is the party and the people that will decide. Even when I was contesting for governor, it was people that met and convinced Buhari, and he called me and asked me to contest,” he said.
Tinubu not worried
Whereas El-Rufai has won a handful of converts for the SDP since he joined the party, particularly in his home state, Kaduna, the APC and the presidency described his move as one being driven by “an inordinate ambition that is destined to fail.”
Special Adviser to the President on Policy Communications, Daniel Bwala, who stated that while El-Rufai has the constitutional right to change parties, maintained that his bid to unseat the incumbent government is not necessarily an ideological change.
Bwala, in a post on his verified X handle, @ DanielBwala, downplayed ElRufai’s political significance in politics, arguing that his relevance was neither sudden nor extraordinary. He wrote, “Senior, @ elrufai, I read the news today (March 10) that you resigned from APC to join SDP. Well, I have nothing against you because you exercised your constitutional right.
“However, the motive is what we would interrogate in the coming days and remind Nigerians that you are not a phenomenon that emerges like a clap of thunder out of a blue sky. “We would intellectually remind you that associating with sore losers to unseat the incumbent is not an ideology, neither is it progressivism;
It is simply an inordinate ambition that is destined to fail.” Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications, Sunday Dare, who also spoke on the development in a statement on X, said the President is not worried about the next election for now. “President Tinubu is not worried about the next election.
He’s worried about the shared prosperity that he can bring to Nigerians. He’s worried about how the reforms he has put in place will yield necessary impact.
President Tinubu is not worried about the next election. He’s worried about the shared prosperity that he can bring to Nigerians. He’s worried about how the reforms he has put in place will yield necessary impact
He is concerned about what happens to the economy of this country eventually. That’s the focus. “We’ve seen our foreign reserves go up. We’ve seen inflation come down. We’ve seen our trade surplus go up. We’ve seen exports go up and imports drop. We’ve seen the investments that have been attracted -over 50 billion.
We are seeing prices dropping. “We have clear data and you have a President that is clearly in the driver’s seat, and he has stayed the course of the decisions he has taken. And I think that the next election is not really in his view right now. It’s how to make sure that at the end of his first term, he can sit back and say, look, I have impacted the lives of Nigerians.
I have turned this economy around.” The APC, on its part, through its Kaduna State chapter, said it is not worried by El-Rufai’s exit from the party, describing it as political gyration. Kaduna APC Secretary, Yahaya Baba-Pate, who spoke with journalists, said the party remained focused on securing the state for President Tinubu and Sani in 2027.
Pate, who expressed confidence in the party’s growing strength in the state, assured APC members that El-Rufai’s departure will not impact the party’s prospects. His words: “We are unperturbed by former Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s defection to another party.
Our main focus in Kaduna is on how to deliver the state to both President Bola Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027. “The APC in Kaduna State is growing day by day, judging from the calibre of politicians streaming into the party daily.
So, we are not disturbed by anybody defecting to another party based on our governor’s inclusive governance in the state. “We are not disturbed and we are not going to lose our sleep over ElRufai’s moves. The party in the state is growing more than before.”
Optimism in SDP
As expected, it is excitement in the SDP, following El-Rufai’s decision to join its fold ahead of the 2027 general election. The party described him as an energetic politician, who will make the platform’s profile to soar to the skies. National Secretary of the party, Dr. Olu Agunloye, in a statement, said:
“SDP welcomes Malam Nasir El-Rufai to its fold and is delighted to have the energetic politician. “The party’s leadership now has to quickly start to reconcile the ambitions and aspirations of the former governor and his team with the developmental programmes, manifesto and ideological goals of the party, so that, with El-Rufai, the SDP platform may soar to the skies.”
SDP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, Prince Adewole Adebayo, who also welcomed the former Kaduna State governor, noted that with an avid worker like El-Rufai joining the party, it was time to liberate Nigerians from the shackles of poverty and insecurity into which the APC has put them over the years.
He said: “On behalf of the teeming members of the SDP and patriotic democrats, who believe in Nigeria and her promise of inevitable greatness, I heartily welcome my dear brother El-Rufai to our party. With the hardworking and sagacious Mallam joining our ranks, an avid worker for the people has been enlisted in our forces against poverty and insecurity.
“Now is the time for us to put our collective shoulders behind the efforts to fulfil Chapter 2 of the Constitution and rescue Nigerians from bad governance and underdevelopment to restore #HopeAgain 2027 to the suffering masses callously left behind in the locust years of the APC and its cotraveller PDP.”
Adebayo emphasised that all genuine democrats and true nationalists, who believe in order, decency and honesty, are welcomed to the SDP, which according to him is governed by law, not men, constitution not constipation of money or personal ambition.
“Together, following the law, the constitution and manifesto of our party, we can set a good example of clean and ethical politics to emulate and rally Nigeria to the forefront of the liberation of Africa and peoples of the Black World. Good politics begets good governance. Let no one sit on the fence any further.
There is no time to waste,” he said. While there is no doubt that El-Rufai, whose image as a thoroughbred technocrat has been trumped by controversies over the years given his love for stirring the hornets’ nest, challenging traditional ways of doing things and charting new courses even when he draws flaks in the process, it is left to be seen how far he can he go in his bid to rock the boat for his former party in the 2027presidential election.
