FELIX NWANERI writes on the disclosure by former Vice President Atiku that some leaders of the main opposition political parties have agreed to form a coalition that will unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 presidential election
As the build-up to the 2027 general election gradually gathers momentum, there are indications that history may repeat itself given the move by some chieftains of the opposition political parties to form an alliance that will confront the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the presidential poll.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who confirmed endorsement of the alliance by key opposition leaders like Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Nasir El-Rufai of the Social Democratic Party (SDP, while speaking during a press conference in Abuja, on Thursday last week, said they have kickstarted a movement aimed at defeating President Bola Tinubu of the APC in the 2027 election.
The press conference, organised by concerned political leaders and stakeholders in response to President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State, was attended by key political figures, including El-Rufai, who recently resigned his membership of the APC and ex-governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha.
Others are former Director General of Progressive Governors Forum (PGF), Dr. Salihu Lukman, erstwhile Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal; National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) Peter Ahmeh and the convener of The Alternative Political Movement, Segun Showunmi. Obi, who was absent, was represented by Dr. Yunusa Tanko, National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement.
When asked whether the emerging coalition will serve as the main opposition against the APC in the 2027 elections, Atiku, who was the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 elections, said:
“Yes, this is the birth of the coalition of opposition ahead of 2027.” Atiku, who was the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 elections, had in November last year, called on the opposition political parties to come together and create a more formidable front that will salvage Nigeria’s democracy.
He then pointed out that a formidable coalition is necessary to address the perceived decline in democratic values and to prevent Nigeria from becoming a de facto one-party system.
He also noted that the project of protecting democracy in the country is not about just one man. His words: “The project of protecting democracy in our country is not about just one man.
You have come here today to say that we should cooperate to promote democracy. But the truth of the matter is that our democracy is fast becoming a one-party system; and, of course, you know that when we have a one-party system, we should just forget about democracy. “We have all seen how the APC is increasingly turning Nigeria into a dictatorship of one party.
If we don’t come together to challenge what the ruling party is trying to create, our democracy will suffer for it, and the consequences of it will affect the generations yet unborn.” Atiku did not stop at his call for the opposition to close ranks; he later met with Obi.
The former vice-president had 6.9 votes in the 2023 presidential poll to place second to Tinubu, who had 8.7 million votes, while Obi, who came third, polled 6.1 million votes.
APC’s merger experience
The APC coming together of a number of political parties in 2013 to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2015 general election re-enacted an existing trend in Nigeria’s politics referred to as politics of merger or politics of alliance.
APC’s emergence at the time was like a bolt out of the blues not because Nigerians were not aware of the party’s coming, but because nobody expected that the main opposition political parties at that time would close ranks and fuse into one platform.
The parties that dissolved into APC were Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) as well as factions of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) otherwise known as New PDP.
While it was doubt in some political quarters then against the backdrop that most previous mergers never worked, founding members of the APC expressed optimism that their party will defeat the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 presidential election.
Their dream turned to reality, when against expectations, the candidate of the then opposition party, Muhammadu Buhari, defeated the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, by 15.4 million to 12.8 million votes.
APC’s victory not only cut shot of PDP’s dream of being at the helm of affairs for 60 years as its leaders boasted at a time, but marked the first time an incumbent president would lose election in Nigeria’s political history.
Opposition on a familiar path
While there is no doubt that most Nigerians are likely to welcome an alternative political platform that will give Tinubu a run for his money in the 2027 presidential election given the belief that his administration has not met expectations of the people, the move by the opposition to rally against the AP is not the first time such move would be made to turn the political table against the APC since it came to power in 2015.
Recall that claims of dismal performance against the immediate past Buhari-led APC government prompted calls for a third force to unseat him in the 2019 general election. Consequently, political alliances were muted and big names flaunted.
The move got heightened, when former President Olusegun Obasanjo led the first set of coalition under the aegis of Coalition of Nigeria Movement (CNM). Obasanjo not only rallied some of his loyalists, including a former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, he promised to be part of the struggle.
However, at the inauguration of the CNM, the ex-president canvassed for a movement that is not necessarily a political party from the outset, but could later take the form of a party and lead the country to the Promised Land. The birth of CNM spurred other groups like the Nigerian Intervention Movement (NIM), led by a former President of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), Olisa Agbakob.
What followed were merger talks between the respective groups and some political parties. One of the outcomes of the talks was CNM’s fusion with the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Expectedly, the alliance moves attracted a greater percentage of youths, who were buoyed by the passage of the Not Too Young To Run Bill and its assent to law.
The belief of most youths then was that new approaches are needed for the nation’s problems against emphasis on age and experience. But politics being a game of interest masquerading as a contest of principles; it did not take time before cracks appeared in the coalitions.
While lack of cohesion and disagreement over choice of presidential candidates contributed to the crumbling of the coalitions, the last straw that broke the camel’s back was when Obasanjo made a detour and endorsed the candidacy of Atiku, who served as vice president during his reign and was nominated for the poll by the PDP.
The aftermath was that the much-anticipated hope of a break from the past never materialised hence Buhari and several other public office holders at that time, viewed by many as members of the old order, were re-elected with only a pocket of youths making it to the legislative houses.
There was another move against the APC ahead of the 2023 elections, when some notable politicians rallied under the aegis of Rescue Nigeria Project (RNP) to stop the party from returning to power.
Arrowheads of the move then were a former governor of Kwara State, Abdulfatah Ahmed; onetime presidential candidate, Prof. Pat Utomi; ex-Minister of Education, Prof. Tunde Adeniran; a former governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke and erstwhile National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Attahiru Jega. However, like the 2019 move, nothing came out of the bid.
Questions over move
While the opposition’s push for a coalition signals a significant challenge to the APC’s hold on power, the questions over the bid are:
Will the opposition leaders close ranks this time given their respective ambitions to contest the presidential election? Even if they succeed in coming together, can they sustain the steam given the fact that it takes more than merger or alliance to unseat a ruling party?
To most analysts, the proposed alliance will hit the rocks if its arrowheads are looking at just a platform to actualise their individual presidential ambitions. While there are no declarations yet for the 2027 presidential election, key opposition figures like Atiku, Obi and El-Rufai are likely to contest the poll given their respective body languages.
The question against this backdrop is: Who will step down for the other among the trio if the propose alignment works, and on which platform will the candidate contest the election?
The belief that promoters of the coalition face a herculean task t is predicated on the divergent views being expressed by the leadership of the various camps, championing the alliance. For instance, it was a twist, when the National Chairman of the SDP, Alhaji Shehu Gabam, dismissed any political alliance with Atiku and ElRufai ahead of the 2027 general election.
Gabam, who spoke in an interview with a television station asserted that the SDP remains focused on strengthening its internal structures and presenting Nigerians with a credible political alternative. “There’s no alliance with anyone. As the chairman of the party, I have not engaged in any discussions about alliances.
Our focus is on reviewing our strategies from 2024 and building a dynamic, inclusive platform,” he said. The SDP national chairman, who criticized the ruling APC and main opposition PDP, said both parties have failed to meet the expectations of Nigerians, making it imperative for citizens to consider alternatives.
Obi, on his part, has consistently maintained that he is not against the idea of a coalition ahead of the 2027 presidential poll, but insists that he will never join any alliance solely focused on seizing power without prioritising the welfare of citizens.
The coalition looks like a very portent one that may turn out to be a very formidable challenge to President Tinubu come 2027 beyond the way those around him are reacting to it
His words: “Let me set the record straight: I am not against coalition. In truth, I am for it not for power grab but to position Nigeria for greatness. I have not, and will never, advocate for any coalition or alliance that does not prioritize the welfare and progress of the ordinary Nigerian.
“Any discussion about governance must centre on what it means for the everyday Nigerian, how it will address critical issues such as access to quality healthcare, education and pulling people out of poverty.
Too often in our nation’s history, individuals and groups have come together solely for the purpose of taking power for power’s sake. “Such endeavours, devoid of genuine purpose and vision, have only deepened our challenges, leaving the ordinary Nigerian to bear the brunt of bad governance.
This is what I stand firmly against. “Leadership must be about service, not self-interest. It must be about building a nation where opportunities abound for all, where justice and equity are non-negotiable, and where governance works for the people, not against them.
“As I have always maintained, the New Nigeria is possible. But it requires us to change the way we think about power. It is not about grabbing it; it is about using it responsibly to transform lives and secure a brighter future for generations to come.”
For El-Rufai, he recently noted his presidential political ambition in 2027, will depend on the party and the will of the people. “It is not for me to decide; it is the party and the people that will decide. Even when I was contesting for governor, it was people that met and convinced Buhari, and he called me and asked me to contest,” he said.
Presidency, APC say coalition won’t fly
Reacting to the coalition move by the opposition leaders, the presidency boasted that no amount of gang-up will stop President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
The Special Adviser on Information and Strategy to the President, Mr, Bayo Onanuga, made the declaration, also said that his principal will not be distracted by the opposition politicians. He stated thisi n a statement on his X handle, titled:
“My message to the coalition of Tinubu haters.” The statement read: “President Tinubu is focused on governance to build a prosperous country. He is on the way to achieving this. Two months to his midterm, he has many solid achievements to showcase. Intractable problems are being tackled headlong.
“He cannot be distracted by the so-called coalition of politicians. They are not politicians after the public good. It’s all about their selfinterest. They are disgruntled. They are a frustrated lot. The leaders are sore losers. The coalition is an amalgam of Tinubu haters. Their agenda is to stop Tinubu.”
Sunday Dare, Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications to the President, had earlier advised the leading opposition figures – Atiku, Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – as well as other critics like El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi (a former governor of Rivers State) to wait till the next general election before they flex muscles. Insisted that the activities of the opposition leaders are premature, he said: “This is 2025, not 2027. Let those who want to test their popularity with Nigerians wait for the next election.”
He emphasised that President Tinubu remains focused on his mandate to improve the lives of Nigerians and build a resilient economy, despite the distractions. “The only conversation he (Tinubu) wants to have now is how to improve the lives of Nigerian citizens and constructive discourse on building a resilient economy,” he said.
National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, who also dismissed the opposition leaders, said no political gang-up will stop President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. Ganduje, in a statement by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Enlightenment, Oliver Okpala, reiterated that any northerner interested in contesting in 2027 should suspend such ambition and wait till 2031.
He added that the North’s support for Tinubu’s reelection in 2027 is unshakable. “Tinubu will surely emerge victorious because of his unparallel performance since he assumed office as president. Forget the recent political gatherings and ranting by some politicians who presently do not have any identifiable political base.
“Their gathering from the LP, PDP, SDP and others are people with different political ideologies and selfish political interests that can never agree on any issue politically. The gathering is an assemblage of people with divergent political interests. No amount of political arrangement or gang up can stop the good people of Nigeria from re-electing Tinubu as President in 2027,” Ganduje said.
National Vice Chairman of the APC (South-East), Dr Ijeoma Arodiogbu, on his part, said the ruling party is not worried over the moves by the opposition figures. His words: “As it is in the Bible; surely they shall gather and they shall scatter. We are not worried that they are gathering because they will definitely scatter. We are not worried about what ElRufai does next.
We know that his trajectory in politics is highly disturbed now. “After our election in 2023, he displayed himself as a man who cannot be trusted across the regions. The way he disparaged Christians in Nigeria, a secular society, has made him a leper. Nobody goes anywhere close to him. El-Rufai is just desperate for recognition now and I wonder why the media is giving him that attention.
“We are not worried about the unholy alliance because it will amount to nothing. It is just a gathering of disgruntled people, trying to lick their wounds. Tinubu remains the president and there is nobody that can stop him in 2027.”
Arodiogbu noted that the reforms of the Tinubu administration, which the opposition may be planning to campaign with are currently yielding the desired results Nigerians, so the people cannot afford to surrender leadership to desperate politicians whose sole interest is state capture.
“When 2027 comes, what will they use to campaign to Nigerians? Will they tell them that they plan to reintroduce fuel subsidy? Not possible! We are already bouncing back to the days of glory. They have seen that forex t is stabilised, and the people are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel.”
Stakeholders differ on coalition’s workability
While it is dismissal of any possible threat the proposed coalition is likely to pose for Tinubu by the leadership of the APC, some opposition stakeholders, who spoke on the development, said the workability of the coalition will depend more on party structure rather than reliance on personalities.
A former PDP National Vice Chairman (South-West), Eddy Olafeso, who said coalition is the only guarantee to defeat APC n 2027, advised his party to speak with Obi and leaders of other opposition parties.
“Not only Peter Obi, every person, who is somebody in this country and can actually garner one or two votes must be spoken with,” he said, insisting that it will be difficult for any single political party to defeat the APC without a strong alliance. “It is not only here that you have alliances; you have people working together to be able to win an election.
It happened in Ghana not quite a long ago and that is exactly what we all should do at this moment, no single party can defeat the APC alone, don’t let us delude ourselves.
We must all come together to fight,” he said. Founder and Pioneer National Chairman of APGA, Chief Chekwas Okorie, in an interview with New Telegraph, expressed the feeling that the coalition poses a threat to Tinubu’s re-election bid.
His words: “The coalition looks like a very portent one that may turn out to be a very formidable challenge to President Tinubu come 2027 beyond the way those around him are reacting to it because I know that those behind the coalition are plotting to divide Southern Nigeria by bringing a candidate, who will do just four years in order to allow the region complete its eight years in line with the rotation agreement, so that power can go back to the North in 2031.
“The trump card in this calculation is Peter Obi and the belief of that arrowheads of the plot is that Obi, unlike President Goodluck Jonathan, will not renege on any agreement he is likely to enter with the North given his antecedent.
While Jonathan is said to have reneged on the agreement that he will complete Umar Yar’Adua’s first term, so that the North will replace him in 2011, promoters of the coalition believe that there is no reason to doubt Obi.
So, Atiku is likely to step down for Obi. Once that is done, 2027 will be a done deal. “So, expect serious realignment of political forces in the days ahead. You will see CPC elements in the APC and supporters of former President Buhari leaving the ruling party for the SDP or any other platform those behind the coalition will agree on.
And, mark my words, APC will wake up to reality very soon. “Unfortunately, those around the President are busy attracting more political opponents for him rather than supporters.
They are not even looking at the numbers, which show that the North-West holds the ace given that the zone delivered bulk of the votes for Tinubu in 2023.
Tinubu is focused on governance to build a prosperous country… He cannot be distracted by the so-called coalition of politicians. They are not politicians after the public good. It’s all about their self-interest
“I am not saying that they will lose in 2027, but Tinubu and his men must return to the political drawing board to take a look at how they will survive because it is not going to be easy the way they are making it to look like as the 2027 presidency is going to be an epic democratic contest in Nigeria’s history.”
However, a former governor of Kano State and Chairman of the League of Northern Democrats (LND), Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, who dismissed the opposition figures on the ground that the coalition they are pushing lacks the necessary political structure to challenge the APC, described their move as an informal gathering of presidential aspirants rather than a well-organized political merger.
He also noted that the coalition does not have the backing of the leadership of major opposition parties, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). According to him, the coalition is being driven by individuals rather than established political structures, making it unlikely to pose a serious threat to the APC’s dominance.
His words: “The coming together of some senior members of opposition parties is a welcome development, as seen recently under what they call a ‘coalition’ of opposition parties.
But unfortunately, most people do not realize that this so-called coalition has nothing to do with the major opposition parties; PDP and LP.”
He contrasted the current situation with the 2013 merger that led to the formation of the APC, which involved the unification of four registered parties, saying: “The first political merger in Nigeria happened in 2013 when four registered parties merged to form the APC. So, technically, the APC is not a ‘new party.’
It was an alliance of registered opposition political parties that were already well-established, with elected state governors, state and National Assembly members, and significant grassroots support.” Shekarau pointed to a similar coalition attempt in 2019, which brought together 10 political parties against the APC but eventually collapsed due to a lack of inclusiveness., said:
“The 2019 ‘coalition’ was formally launched almost a year before the elections, yet none of the then-elected PDP leaders was in attendance.
No amount of noise-making or informal alliances by individual politicians in the name of opposition will have any impact in elections unless the full leadership structure of opposition parties at all levels is involved,” he warned.
He further argued that the recent ratification of President Tinubu’s emergency rule in Rivers State by the National Assembly exposed the coalition’s lack of influence over opposition lawmakers.
According to him, if the coalition leaders had any real influence, the APC government would not have secured the required votes.
Despite his criticisms, Shekarau maintained that the opposition still has a chance to reorganize itself before the 2027 elections if it focuses on genuine unity and strategic planning. “It is still not too late.
I believe that with the right vision, mission, and focus, combined with a genuine sense of purpose, the opposition can change its narrative in 2025 and position itself for success in the 2027 elections,” he said.
A former Deputy National Chairman o the PDP, Chief Bode George who also faulted the coalition move, said it is being driven by personal ambition as some of those pushing for the coalition have the ambition to become president.
He said: “All those people saying they are going to float a mega party, is there any of them who is not ambitious to be president of Nigeria? Is that the real approach to solving this problem?
Do you think there is any nation or party that does not have a crisis? All these groups who are running around for their personal ambition, they are making a monumental mistake and they are all dancing on the graves of our founding fathers.”
Olufemi Aduwo, the Permanent Representative of the Centre for Convention on Democratic Integrity (CCDI) at the United Nations, who also spoke on the coalition move, told New Telegraph that it will take more than coming together of opposition leaders to unseat Tinubu and his party in 2027.
His words: “I have heard calls for the opposition parties to come together to defeat Tinubu, but let us be honest, many of these parties are built around individuals, both the APC and PDP.
Take the formation of the APC in 2013. It came about from the merger of Nigeria’s three largest opposition parties. The ACN, CPC and ANPP alongside a breakaway faction of APGA.
“These parties had governors, which was crucial. In November 2013, five serving governors from the PDP defected to the APC. Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa and Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto.
Unknowingly to Atiku Abubakar, the walk-out led by him during PDP convention was the moment his political ambition hit a dead end. “In the 2015 presidential poll, the “New PDP” states delivered a massive 3.3 million votes to Buhari, who defeated Jonathan by 2.5 million votes.
Without this group, the APC and Buhari would have lost. So, it is not enough for the opposition to simply unite, they need to secure at least seven APC governors.
Anything less, they are merely engaging in a game of musical chairs with no real substance. If they are serious about change, they need to win over key APC figures.”
