Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the national level is willing to yield six states to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2027 general elections. About 29 governors, who are not in off-season elections will either be concluding their second term and hoping to install successors while others will be seeking second terms.
But Sunday Telegraph gathered that the APC would make the concession to the PDP, if the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike and his faction of the PDP eventually triumph at the Courts over the Taminu Turaki-led faction led by the Governors of Bauchi and Oyo states, Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde, respectively.
Few weeks ago, an Oyo State High Court in Ibadan, had ruled the Convention held in the state last year by the Mohammed/ Makinde group was legitimate, thereby putting the expulsion of Wike, former Secretary, Samuel Anyanwu and others by the Ibadan Convention as valid. If that stands, it means Wike and his group would be out of the PDP.
However, Sunday Telegraph understood that the Wike group is hopeful of succeeding on appeal at higher courts. With that hope, insiders, privy to the arrangement, revealed that President Bola Tinubu and the Wike camp of the PDP have an understanding that some states would be left for Wike to compensate for his efforts in holding the PDP down for the President.
A source, who is close to the camp, said that the compromise came after Tinubu insisted that it was not good for political optics, if in 2027, the APC wins a landslide in all states at the election. “The President said and believes that if the APC wins everywhere, democracy would be gone.
He is also calculating beyond his re-election, insisting that the beauty of democracy is about multiparty system. So, I can tell you that even some governors who have defected to APC or are already members may not have their ways eventually. The party would consider PDP’s (Wike) interest to ensure that he maintains his relevance after serving the APC government”, he said.
Although details of the pact are not public knowledge, Sunday Telegraph gathered that the states might include about four in the South and two from the North. But it is likely that Oyo State might not benefit from the arrangement since Wike and Makinde have fallen out and the Oyo governor is also at odds with the President, despite visiting Aso Rock recently.
It was gathered that Oyo was in consideration to be retained by the PDP but the public spat between Wike and Makinde recently and the open criticism of the president by the Oyo Governor complicated things. Sunday Telegraph gathered that Wike might likely retain his state, Rivers, while the five other states are being kept under wraps for now.
The Source said that the planners of the compromise were not taking the African Democratic Congress (ADC) into consideration. “They believe that the ADC would only huff and puff without any meaningful impact.” As if to confirm the plan, a former PDP governor, close to the Wike camp, told Sunday Telegraph that the PDP would come alive in 2027.
He said there was no pathway for the ADC in the 2027 elections. He said: “I don’t see the APC being strong after Tinubu in 2031 and I don’t believe in the ADC either. Those in the ADC today were people who ganged up to chase away Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. They have sprinkled some new names on the party to make it look fresh. But can we forget what they did to Jonathan?
“That is why we cannot trust the ADC proponents. They are not to be trusted with power. As for the APC, once we deliver Tinubu for his second term, we will know the direction things are going with the party. But for sure, PDP will play a big role in the 2031 elections. That is when the real strength of the PDP would be seen, not now”.
He added that the Electoral Act provision that mandated political parties to have both electronic and physical registers of members has made it difficult for the ADC to mount a meaningful challenge. “With about 18 million registered members, if the APC scores 20 million in the next election, what argument would you present?
The party would simply tell you their members voted for them and an additional two million people. Do you think that the APC has not prepared for victory already? How many governors does the party have now? You think those are just for fun? My point is that the election is decided already. It is just for the election day to come and everything becomes clear”. Sunday Telegraph also gathered that Wike is not sold on joining APC because of 2031 calculations.
