The experts at the financial and economic intelligence platform, Proshare, have warned that 2026, being a pre-election year, will test the strength of recent economic reforms and shape the country’s medium-term growth trajectory, even as it projects a cautious path to recovery.
The assessment is contained in Proshare’s Economic Outlook Report 2026, titled ‘Hope and the Politics of Economic Recovery’, which examined global, continental, and domestic economic trends and outlined the policy discipline, structural reforms, and political stability required to sustain Nigeria’s ongoing macroeconomic adjustment efforts.
The report noted that the globe is transitioning from a multilateral global order toward fragmented bilateral trade systems, resulting in higher global inflation and regionalised supply chains.
“In Africa, growth is projected at 4.1 – 4.3 per cent in 2026, driven by mineral demand and strategic partnerships. Notably, Nigeria’s move to de-anchor oil sales from the US dollar is expected to reshape continental trade dynamics and inspire similar actions by other African economies. Nigeria is showing early signs of recovery, with macroeconomic policies driving the economy towards favourable growth paths.
Proshare analysts noted that the trend will continue in Q1 2026, although it depends on the direction of domestic interest rates, which the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee held at 27 per cent for the rest of the year, and on the growth of the domestic fiscal deficit.
“According to Proshare analysts, the expectation for 2026 is that the CBN will remain conservative and baulk at using Ways and Means funding to accommodate increased government spending, despite 2026 being a pre-election year. The fiscal authorities will need to be more active in the Treasury bills and bonds market and hope that the inflation rate continues to fall to support the sale of government instruments at lower incremental yields, ensuring that the debt service ratio does not balloon. The domestic inflation rate in 2026 may decline to the upper single digits, but it will depend on the steady appreciation of the naira against the US dollar. If the naira-to-dollar exchange rate averages the 2026 budget expectation of N1,512 per US dollar, the CBN’s nine per cent single-digit inflation target would be impractical,” the report said.
The analysts added that with 2026 as a pre-election year, there was a need for caution against expansionary fiscal spending and advocated for innovative financing mechanisms.
“A central recommendation is the financialisation of idle public assets, not through outright sales, but by listing minority equity stakes on capital markets to unlock value and fund revenue-generating projects. The BPE’s proposed listings of NNPCL and other state enterprises, highlighted for listings or concessions, represent a transformative opportunity to realise growth projections, unlock value, attract investment, and bolster reserves,” the report further read.
Also, there are projections of a significant shift toward subnational economic regionalism in 2026, with geopolitical zones, through the new regional commissions, driving regional development.
The report stated, “The South-West is identified as a catalyst due to its stronger internal revenue generation and lower dependency on federal allocations. This regional competition is expected to enhance national productivity, mirroring the economic dynamism of Nigeria’s early post-independence era.”
Key growth areas for 2026 include the Lifestyle, Marine & Blue Economy, Digital and Creative Economies, Mineral and Agricultural Economies and Mobility and Service Economies.
“These sectors are expected to drive diversification, job creation, and investment inflows. In a pre-election year, the primary risks include heightened insecurity, political distractions, pre-election volatility, and fiscal leakages. Moreover, the Tinubu administration must think vertically, doing new things, going from zero to one, rather than horizontally extending existing frameworks. This requires a data-driven strategy, not just hope,” part of the executive summary of the report added.
